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CFR CONCESSION & COVERED 08:25:25.xlsx
CFR DAILY DOWNLOAD 08-25-25.xlsx
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by John Dziwura
Aug 25, 2025 4:51 PM ET
CFR CREDIT CLOSE: SEB Kicks Off Dog Days Week Two
SEB was the lone issuer today for what is expected to be a much-needed slow week.
Despite only bringing $1.05bn of supply, today ties for 3rd in terms of historical Dog Days Week 2 Mondays. Last year’s Dog Days Week 2 Monday also saw 1 deal, Associated Banc-Corp for $300m.
Dog Days Week 2 Mon Vol | |
YEAR | VOL |
2016 | $7,800 |
2007 | $1,100 |
2025 | $1,050 |
2010 | $1,050 |
2018 | $750 |
2019 | $750 |
SEB's $1.05bn puts us $2.52bn away from the week’s average estimate. With the low estimate being just $1bn, it is likely there are a couple more that could go over the next few days.
THIS WEEK GOAL POST | ||
WK ENDING 08/29/25 WTD | $1,050 | $ NEED TO HIT |
AVG EST WK ENDING 08/29/25 | $3,570 | $2,520 |
HIGH EST WK ENDING 08/29/25 | $7,500 | $6,450 |
LOW EST WK ENDING 08/29/25 | $1,000 | ($50) |
After a record Dog Days Week 1 with $26.6bn, we are still hopeful of beating The Dog Days two-week combined record. That would require another $3.576bn, to take us past the record of $31.225bn from 2007. We heard of a few shops already that have 1-2 looking tomorrow which will push us closer to this goal. The record for week 2 alone is $12.3bn in 2016, which looks very unachievable.
LARGEST DOG DAYS WK 1&2 VOLUME | ||
YEAR | DOG WK 1&2 TTL VOL | DOG WK 1&2 DEALS |
2007 | $31.225 | 29 |
2025 YTD | $27.650 | 23 |
2024 | $24.700 | 17 |
2020 | $23.425 | 25 |
Turning to today's deal, SEB priced with the lowest 5yr SNP spread since September 2021.
2020-25 5yr SNP LOW SPREADS | |||||||||
DATE | Ticker | Top Sector | MDY | SP | Size | Mat | Final | Coupon | Spread |
2/17/21 | RABOBK | yfin | A3 | A- | $1,000 | 6nc5 | 2/24/27 | 1.106% | 55 |
9/23/21 | NDAFH | yfin | A3 | A | $1,500 | 5 | 9/30/26 | 1.500% | 60 |
6/7/21 | SHBASS | yfin | A3 | A | $1,000 | 6nc5 | 6/11/27 | 1.418% | 63 |
5/18/21 | DNBNO | yfin | A3 | A | $1,000 | 6nc5 | 5/25/27 | 1.535% | 72 |
8/25/25 | SEB | yfin | A3 | A- | $750 | 5 | 9/3/30 | 4.500% | 73 |
12/8/21 | RABOBK | yfin | A3 | A- | $1,250 | 6nc5 | 12/15/27 | 1.980% | 73 |
9/17/20 | RABOBK | yfin | A3 | A- | $1,000 | 6nc5 | 9/24/26 | 1.004% | 73 |
It was also the lowest coupon on a 5yr SNP back to 2023:
2023-25 5yr SNP LOW COUPONS | |||||||||
DATE | Ticker | Top Sector | MDY | SP | Size | Mat | Final | Coupon | Spread |
8/25/25 | SEB | yfin | A3 | A- | $750 | 5 | 9/3/30 | 4.500% | 73 |
9/25/24 | DANBNK | yfin | Baa1 | A- | $1,000 | 6nc5 | 10/2/30 | 4.613% | 110 |
6/25/25 | CABKSM | yfin | Baa2 | BBB+ | $1,000 | 6nc5 | 7/3/31 | 4.885% | 105 |
7/28/25 | DB | fin | Baa1 | BBB | $1,700 | 6nc5 | 8/4/31 | 4.950% | 98 |
5/19/25 | RABOBK | yfin | A3 | A- | $750 | 6nc5 | 5/27/31 | 4.990% | 92 |
9/4/24 | DB | fin | Baa1 | BBB | $1,250 | 6nc5 | 9/11/30 | 4.999% | 145 |
Here's today's rundown:
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB “SEB” (A3/A-/AA-) (issuer ratings Aa3/A+/AA- (p/p/s)), US$1.05bn 144A/Reg S no reg rights 5y fixed and/or floating Senior Non-Preferred 2-part due 9/3/30. Optional Redemption: Applicable, upon the occurrence of a Tax Event (Condition 5.02) or Eligible Liabilities Event (Condition 5.06). Coupon type: 5y FXD: fixed rate, semi-annual, 30/360; 5y FRN: floating rate, quarterly, Actual/360. Substitution or Variation: Substitution or Variation: Applicable, if a Tax Event or an Eligible Liabilities Event (Condition 5.08). Events of Default: Limited events of default only (described in Condition 6). Swedish bail-in power: Swedish bail-in power acknowledgement: Applicable (Condition 15.03). Denoms: 200,000 x 1,000. Sale into Canada: Yes - Exemption. Governing Law: English law, except for subordination and waiver of set-off provisions which are governed by, and shall be construed in accordance with, the laws of the Kingdom of Sweden. UOP: gcp. Pricing 8/25. Settle 9/3 (T+6). 144A CUSIP: 5y FXD: 830505BK8, 5y FRN: 830505BL6. 144A ISIN: 5y FXD: US830505BK88, 5y FRN: US830505BL61.
VIA Barc/GS/JPM(B&D)/SEB/UBS joint active books.
Announced as a benchmark, we heard initial price thoughts as T+95 area and SOFR equiv.
Guidance came in at 5y FXD T+73#, 5y FRN SOFR+106#.
Ultimately, a $1.05bn deal priced as follows:
$300m 9/3/30 FRN at SOFR+106, at 100.
$750m 4.50% 9/3/30 99.956 4.51% T+73.
As for r/v, outstanding SEB SNP was quoted as follows:
-SEB 5.375% due 3/5/29 T+52bp (G60; $103.5) - $750M pxd Feb 2024
** Outstanding Mar 29s G60; plus 10bp for the 18-months extension = T+70bp f/v. (3bp concession)
Or using SEB SP + 20bp differential:
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (Aa3/A+/AA)
-SEB 4.375% due 6/2/28 T+36bp (G35; $100.9) - $750M pxd 5/22/25 +50
** Outstanding SEB senior preferred Jun 28s G35; plus 15bp 3s/5s curve T+50bp; plus 20bp SP/SNP differential = T+70bp f/v. Concession is also 3bp.
At the T+73bp pricing level, CONCESSION IS 3BP.
Senior Non-Preferred Comps Away:
Sweda (A3/A-/AA-)
-SWEDA 5.083% due 5/21/30 T+71bp (G72; $102.5) - $750M pxd 5/14/25 +93
Cooperatieve Rabobank UA (A3/A-/A+)
-RABOBK 4.990% due 5/27/31 T+75bp (G76; $102.3) - $750M pxd 5/19/25 +92
ING Group NV (Baa1/A-/A+)
-INTNED 5.066% due 3/25/31 T+73bp (G75; $102.7) - $1B pxd 3/18/25 +100
FED Caisses Desjardins (A1/A-)
-CCDJ 4.565% due 8/26/30 T +73bp (G72; $100.2) - $750M pxd 8/19/25 +75
Senior Preferred Comps Away:
Nordea Bank ABP (NA/Aa-/AA)
-NDAFH 4.250% due 8/28/30 T+48bp (G47; $100.0) - $600M pxd 8/20/25 +50
Westpac Banking Corp (Aa2/AA-/NR)
-WSTP 4.354% due 7/1/30 T+41bp (G41; $100.7) - $750M pxd 6/24/25 +50
National Australia BK/NY (Aa2/AA-”
-NAB 4.534% due 6/13/30 T+42bp (G43; $101.4) - $750M pxd 6/03/25 +52
Cooperatieve Rabobank UA/NY (Aa2/A+/AA-)
-RABOBK 4.494% due 10/17/29 T+37 (G42; $101.3) - $750M pxd OCT 2024
FINAL BOOKS:
$300m 5yr FRN - $860m (2.87x) - PEAK $930m
$750m 5yr FXD - $1.500bn (2.00x) - PEAK $2.000bn
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc "KDP" (Baa1/BBB) announced a tender offer to acquire JDE Peet's NV "JDEP" (Baa3/BBB-/BBB) at €31.85 per share in cash representing an equity value of €15.7bn (~$18.4bn) or an enterprise value of €19.7bn (~$23bn).
Keurig Dr Pepper plans on funding the transaction with cash on hand and new debt. KDP has obtained a €16.2bn bridge facility with MS and MUFG and plans on replacing the bridge loan with new sr unsecured and Jr subordinated debt. KDP had approximately $500m in cash equivalents as of 6/30, they last issued a $2bn deal in April 2025 with their largest trade on record being $3bn in March 2024 as well as April 2022.
The acquisition is expected to close by Q2 2026.
Following the close of the acquisition, Keurig Dr Pepper intends to spin-off into two separate publicly listed companies: "Beverage Co" and "Global Coffee Co" (names are not yet finalized). KDP will have approximately $27bn in annual net sales at acquisition closing with Global Coffee having $15.9bn and Beverage Co having $11.1bn in net sales once separated. KDP is committed towards maintaining their investment grade ratings and anticipates both new companies to be investment grade rated as well.
The spin-off is expected to close by Q4 2026.
Lazard and Morgan Stanley are the financial advisors with Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP and Stibbe N.V. providing legal counsel to Keurig Dr Pepper.
Bank of America is the financial advisor with A&O Shearman providing legal counsel to JDE Peet's.
JDEP shares closed on Friday at €26.82 and are up 17.5% today.
KDP shares are down around 8% today.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001418135/000095014225002257/eh250670939_8k.htm
jdziwura@creditflowresearch.com