by Andrea Johnson
Nov 24, 2025 5:04 PM ET
Today turned in only 2 deals for $3.00bn – not even halfway to the average $6.463bn estimate. This led to the major follow-up question of the afternoon. Is this it for the week? The answer appears to be YES!
We did a quick market sweep this afternoon on potential Tuesday activity. Here are the results:
27 shops – 0
2 shops - ?
One of the zero respondents said “probably done” – more like as of now nothing but you never know. And we don’t love the two question marks. But after a grueling late October/November that turned in $219.105bn, most think a rest makes sense.
Unless a surprise emerges tomorrow, Thanksgiving Week 2025 will end down 54% vs the average estimate.
Even with 2024 coming in up 91% vs the estimate, looking back through 2020 the average for Thanksgiving week shows it generally disappointing to the downside:
THANKSGIVING WEEK FINAL VS AVG EST | |||||||
WEEK ENDING | DEALS | TRANCHES | VOLUME | ESTIMATE (AVG) | ESTIMATE (HIGH) | ESTIMATE (LOW) | FINAL VS AVG EST |
11/28/2025 WTD | 2 | 5 | $3.000 | $6.463 | $11.000 | $2.500 | -54% |
11/29/2024 | 7 | 14 | $13.700 | $7.179 | $20.000 | $2.500 | 91% |
11/24/2023 | 3 | 6 | $5.500 | $6.792 | $10.000 | $5.000 | -19% |
11/25/2022 | 5 | 8 | $5.900 | $5.750 | $7.500 | $2.500 | 3% |
11/26/2021 | 3 | 6 | $4.500 | $8.222 | $15.000 | $4.000 | -45% |
11/27/2020 | 1 | 1 | $0.300 | $4.610 | $12.000 | $2.000 | -93% |
6YR AVG MISS: | -20% | ||||||
Today’s $3bn pushed record November 2025 over $140bn. Minus a surprise on Tuesday, November’s final is $140.025bn - $14bn+ above previous record holder 2012.
NOVEMBER 2025 GOAL POST | ||
NOV 2025 MTD | $140,025 | $NEED TO HIT |
NOV 2025 AVG EST | $126,232 | ($13,793) |
NOV 2025 HIGH EST | $150,000 | $9,975 |
NOV 2025 LOW EST | $120,000 | ($20,025) |
NOV 3YR AVG | $103,688 | ($36,337) |
NOV 5YR AVG | $104,271 | ($35,754) |
PREV NOV RECORD (2012) | $125,643 | ($14,382) |
Today's low spread/coupon notables:
Duke Energy Florida's 10yr logged 2025's lowest 10yr utility coupon:
2025 10yr UTIL LOW COUPONS | |||||||||||
DATE | Issuer | Ticker | Top Sector | MDY | SP | FTCH | Size | Mat | Final | Coupon | Spread |
11/24/25 | Duke Energy Florida | DUK | util | A1 | A |
| $600 | 10 | 12/1/35 | 4.850% | 92 |
9/3/25 | PECO Energy Inc | EXC | util | Aa3 | A | $525 | 10 | 9/15/35 | 4.875% | 68 | |
8/7/25 | Public Service Electric & Gas Co | PEG | util | A1 | A | $450 | 10 | 8/15/35 | 4.900% | 67 | |
9/8/25 | Virginia Electric & Power (VEPCO) | D | util | A3 | BBB+ | A | $825 | 10 | 9/15/35 | 4.900% | 87 |
9/16/25 | Southern Power Co | SO | util | Baa1 | BBB+ | BBB+ | $550 | 10 | 10/1/35 | 4.900% | 90 |
8/4/25 | CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric LLC | CNP | util | A2 | A | A | $600 | 10 | 8/15/35 | 4.950% | 80 |
9/8/25 | Duke Energy Corp | DUK | util | Baa2 | BBB | $1,000 | 10 | 9/15/35 | 4.950% | 95 | |
Duke Energy Florida's 5yr came in at No. 3 on the 2023-2025 5yr Utility Low Coupon List:
2023-25 5yr UTIL LOW COUPONS | |||||||||||
DATE | Issuer | Ticker | Top Sector | MDY | SP | FTCH | Size | Mat | Final | Coupon | Spread |
11/5/25 | Korea Electric Power Corp (KEPCO) | KORELE | yutil | Aa2 | AA | $400 | 5 | 11/12/30 | 4.125% | 47 | |
9/18/25 | Wisconsin Electric Power Co | WEC | util | A2 | A- | A+ | $500 | 5 | 10/15/30 | 4.150% | 50 |
11/24/25 | Duke Energy Florida | DUK | util | A1 | A |
| $500 | 5 | 12/1/30 | 4.200% | 62 |
7/2/25 | Korea Gas Corp | KORGAS | yutil | Aa2 | AA | AA- | $500 | 5 | 7/10/30 | 4.250% | 47 |
9/16/25 | Southern Power Co | SO | util | Baa1 | BBB+ | BBB+ | $550 | 5 | 10/1/30 | 4.250% | 70 |
Roche landed with the 4th lowest 5yr coupon of 2025:
2025 5yr LOW COUPONS | ||||||||||
DATE | Ticker | Top Sector | MDY | SP | FTCH | Size | Mat | Final | Coupon | Spread |
9/8/25 | HD | ind | A2 | A | A | $500 | 5 | 9/15/30 | 3.950% | 45 |
10/27/25 | PM | ind | A2 | A- | A | $750 | 5 | 10/29/30 | 4.000% | 58 |
10/14/25 | KEBHNB | yfin | Aa3 | A+ | $300 | 5 | 10/21/30 | 4.000% | 43 | |
9/15/25 | AMAT | ind | A2 | A | $550 | 5 | 1/15/31 | 4.000% | 47 | |
4/28/25 | GOOGL | ind | Aa2 | AA+ | $750 | 5 | 5/15/30 | 4.000% | 32 | |
4/28/25 | PG | ind | Aa3 | AA- | $700 | 5 | 5/1/30 | 4.050% | 28 | |
11/24/25 | ROSW | yind | Aa2 | AA | AA | $500 | 5 | 12/2/30 | 4.075% | 47 |
11/17/25 | AMZN | ind | A1 | AA | AA- | $2,500 | 5 | 11/20/30 | 4.100% | 40 |
11/3/25 | GOOGL | ind | Aa2 | AA+ | $2,500 | 5 | 11/15/30 | 4.100% | 40 | |
11/3/25 | NOVNVX | ind | Aa3 | AA- | $1,750 | 5 | 11/5/30 | 4.100% | 45 | |
Roche landed No. 6 on the 2025 7yr Low Coupon List:
2025 7yr LOW COUPONS | ||||||||||
DATE | Ticker | Top Sector | MDY | SP | FTCH | Size | Mat | Final | Coupon | Spread |
10/27/25 | PG | ind | Aa3 | AA- | $750 | 7 | 11/3/32 | 4.100% | 32 | |
10/27/25 | SANFP | yind | Aa3 | AA | AA | $1,200 | 7 | 11/3/32 | 4.20% | 45 |
10/27/25 | PM | ind | A2 | A- | A | $850 | 7 | 10/29/32 | 4.250% | 68 |
11/3/25 | NOVNVX | ind | Aa3 | AA- | $925 | 7 | 11/5/32 | 4.300% | 50 | |
11/17/25 | AMZN | ind | A1 | AA | AA- | $1,500 | 7 | 3/20/33 | 4.350% | 47 |
11/24/25 | ROSW | yind | Aa2 | AA | AA | $600 | 7 | 12/2/32 | 4.374% | 58 |
11/3/25 | GOOGL | ind | Aa2 | AA+ | $1,250 | 7 | 11/15/32 | 4.375% | 50 | |
Roche came in No. 7 on the 2025 10yr Low Coupon List:
2025 10yr LOW COUPONS | ||||||||||
DATE | Ticker | Top Sector | MDY | SP | FTCH | Size | Mat | Final | Coupon | Spread |
10/27/25 | PG | ind | Aa3 | AA- | $500 | 10 | 11/3/35 | 4.350% | 37 | |
4/28/25 | GOOGL | ind | Aa2 | AA+ | $1,250 | 10 | 5/15/35 | 4.500% | 47 | |
8/26/25 | OCBCSP | yfin | A2 | BBB+ | A | $1,000 | 10 | 9/8/35 | 4.550% | 80 |
11/3/25 | NOVNVX | ind | Aa3 | AA- | $925 | 10 | 11/5/35 | 4.600% | 55 | |
9/15/25 | AMAT | ind | A2 | A | $450 | 10 | 1/15/36 | 4.600% | 60 | |
4/28/25 | PG | ind | Aa3 | AA- | $550 | 10 | 5/1/35 | 4.600% | 43 | |
10/27/25 | APH | ind | A3 | A- | $1,600 | 10 | 2/15/36 | 4.625% | 65 | |
10/27/25 | PM | ind | A2 | A- | A | $850 | 10 | 10/29/35 | 4.625% | 78 |
11/17/25 | AMZN | ind | A1 | AA | AA- | $3,500 | 10 | 11/20/35 | 4.650% | 55 |
9/8/25 | HD | ind | A2 | A | A | $1,000 | 10 | 9/15/35 | 4.650% | 63 |
11/24/25 | ROSW | yind | Aa2 | AA | AA | $800 | 10 | 12/2/35 | 4.666% | 63 |
Duke Energy Florida came in at No. 7 on the 2020-2025 5yr FMB Low Spread Table:
2020-25 5yr FMB LOW SPREADS | |||||||||||
DATE | Issuer | Ticker | Top Sector | MDY | SP | FTCH | Size | Mat | Final | Coupon | Spread |
11/16/20 | The Connecticut Light & Power Co | ES | util | A1 | A+ | A+ | $400 | 5 | 12/1/25 | 0.750% | 35 |
9/23/20 | Oncor Electric Delivery Co LLC | ONCRTX | util | A2 | A+ | A | $450 | 5 | 10/1/25 | 0.550% | 40 |
1/2/25 | Duke Energy Carolinas LLC | DUK | util | Aa3 | A | $400 | 5 | 3/15/30 | 4.850% | 50 | |
11/8/24 | Oncor Electric Delivery Co LLC | ONCRTX | util | A2 | A+ | A | $550 | 5 | 11/1/29 | 4.650% | 52 |
1/6/25 | The Connecticut Light & Power Co | ES | util | A1 | A | A+ | $400 | 5 | 1/15/30 | 4.950% | 55 |
2/24/25 | CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric LLC | CNP | util | A2 | A | A | $500 | 5 | 3/15/30 | 4.800% | 60 |
5/28/24 | Florida Power and Light Co | NEE | util | Aa2 | A+ | AA- | $750 | 5 | 6/15/29 | 5.150% | 60 |
11/24/25 | Duke Energy Florida | DUK | util | A1 | A |
| $500 | 5 | 12/1/30 | 4.200% | 62 |
HERE'S TODAY'S RUNDOWN:
Roche Holdings Inc (ROSW) exp Aa2/AA/AA (s/s/s) US$1.9bn 144A/Reg S no rig rights 3-part sr notes (5y FXD due 12/2/30, 7y FXD due 12/2/32 and 10y FXD due 12/2/35). MWC then 1mo par call on 5y (11/2/30), 3mos on 7y (10/2/32) and 3mos on 10y (9/2/35). Guarantor: Roche Holding Ltd. Denoms: 200,000 x 1,000. Sale into Canada: Yes - Exemption. UOP: general corporate purposes, which may include, without limitation, mergers and acquisitions, licensing, refinancing of regular debt maturities, payments of dividends and potential early redemptions. Pricing 11/24. Settle 12/2 (T+5). 144A Cusip: 5y: 771196CS9, 7y: 771196CT7, 10y: 771196CU4. 144A ISIN: 5y: US771196CS97, 7y: US771196CT70, 10y: US771196CU44.
VIA Barc (B&D)/BNP/JPM/MUFG joint active books.
Announced with benchmark size final size came in at $1.9bn with price progression as follows:
5yr - IPT T+75 area; GDNC T+47#; PXD $500m 4.075% 12/2/30 100.00 4.075% T+47. MW+10.
7yr - IPT T+80-85; GDNC T+58#; PXD $600m 4.374% 12/2/32 100.00 4.374% T+58. MW+10.
10yr - IPT T+90 area; GDNC T+63#; PXD $800m 4.666% 12/2/35 100.00 4.666% T+63. MW+10.
As for r/v, outstanding ROSW was quoted as follows:
-ROSW 4.790% due 03/08/29 T+39bp (G49; $102.35) - $875m pxd MAR 2024
-ROSW 4.203% due 09/09/29 T+36bp (G43; $100.78) - $900m pxd SEPT 2024
-ROSW 5.489% due 11/13/30 T+42bp (G43; $106.30) - $1.25bn pxd NOV 2023
-ROSW 4.909% due 03/08/31 T+56bp (G54; $103.56) - $750m pxd MAR 2024
-ROSW 4.985% due 03/08/34 T+43bp (G58; $103.42) - $1.25bn pxd MAR 2024
-ROSW 4.592% due 09/09/34 T+51bp (G62; $100.24) - $1bn pxd SEPT 2024
-ROSW 5.218% due 03/08/54 T+68bp ($97.82) - $1.6bn pxd MAR 2024
Focusing on their outstanding September 2024 trades:
*** 10yr: Sept ’34 G62, add 3bp for ‘34/’35 curve gets f/v to T+65bp. At the T+63bp pricing level, 10yr CONCESSION IS NEG 2BP.
*** 7yr: 10y f/v at T+65, take away 7.5bp for IPT curve gets f/v to T+58bp. At the T+58bp pricing level, 5yr CONCESSION IS FLAT.
*** 5yr: Sept ’29 G43, add 7bp for ‘29/30 curve gets f/v to T+50bp. Also looking at 7y f/v at T+57, take away 7.5bp for IPT curve gets f/v to T+50bp. At the T+47bp pricing level, 5yr CONCESSION IS NEG 3BP.
Novartis was also seen as a relevant comp which pointed to f/v in a similar spot after applying an SEC to 144A differential.
Novartis Capital Corp (Aa3/AA-)
-NOVNVX 3.900% due 11/05/28 T+26bp (G26; $100.37) - $700m pxd 11/03/25 +30
-NOVNVX 4.100% due 11/05/30 T+44bp (G44; $100.19) - $1.75bn pxd 11/03/25 +45
-NOVNVX 4.300% due 11/05/32 T+50bp (G50; $99.95) - $925m pxd 11/03/25 +50
-NOVNVX 4.600% due 11/05/35 T+59bp (G59; $99.68) - $925m pxd 11/03/25 +55
*** 10yr: NOVNVX Nov ‘35 G59, plus 5bp for SEC to 144A premium gets f/v to T+65bp. At the T+63bp pricing level, 10yr CONCESSION IS NEG 2BP.
*** 7yr: 10y f/v at T+65, take away 7.5bp for IPT curve gets f/v to T+58bp. At the T+58bp pricing level, 7yr CONCESSION IS FLAT.
*** 5yr: NOV ‘30 G44, add 5bp for SEC to 144A premium gets f/v to T+50bp. Also 7y f/v at T+58, take away 7.5bp for IPT curve gets f/v to T+50bp. At the T+47bp pricing level, 5yr CONCESSION IS NEG 3BP.
COMPS AWAY:
Pfizer Inc (A2/A)
-PFE 3.875% due 11/15/27 T+26bp (G25; $100.18) - $1bn pxd 11/18/25 +30
-PFE 4.200% due 11/15/30 T+51bp (G51; $100.29) - $1bn pxd 11/18/25 +52
-PFE 4.500% due 11/15/32 T+61bp (G62; $100.47) - $1.25bn pxd 11/18/25 +65
-PFE 4.875% due 11/15/35 T+72bp (G74; $100.78) - $1.25bn pxd 11/18/25 +75
Eli Lilly & Co (Aa3/A+)
-LLY 4.000% due 10/15/28 T+30bp (G30; $100.50) - $1bn pxd 08/18/25 +28
-LLY 4.250% due 03/15/31 T+52bp (G49; $100.50) - $750m pxd 08/18/25 +40
-LLY 4.550% due 10/15/32 T+51bp (G53; $101.30) - $1bn pxd 08/18/25 +48
-LLY 4.900% due 10/15/35 T+58bp (G61; $102.05) - $1.25bn pxd 08/18/25 +57
-LLY 5.550% due 10/15/55 T+71bp ($102.15) - $1bn pxd 08/18/25 +65
Sanofi SA (Aa3/AA)
-SANFP 3.750% due 11/03/27 T+17bp (G17; $100.11) - $400m pxd 10/27/25 +25
-SANFP 3.800% due 11/03/28 T+28bp (G28; $100.03) - $400m pxd 10/27/25 +30
-SANFP 4.200% due 11/03/32 T+45bp (G45; $99.64) - $1.2bn pxd 10/27/25 +45
FINAL BOOKS:
$500m 5yr - $2.200bn (4.40x) - PEAK $3.400bn
$600m 7yr - $2.000bn (3.33x) - PEAK $2.600bn
$800m 10yr - $2.250bn (2.81x) - PEAK $3.700bn
Duke Energy Florida LLC (DUK) exp A1/A (s/s) US$1.1bn SEC registered 2-part first mortgage bonds (5y FXD due 12/1/30 and 10y FXD due 12/1/35). MWC then 1mo par call on 5y (11/1/30) and 3mos on 10y (9/1/35). Denoms: 2,000 x 1,000. Sale into Canada: Yes - Exemption. Prohibited Sales: Hong Kong and Mainland China. UOP: to pay down a portion of outstanding intercompany short-term debt and for general corporate purposes, including to fund capital expenditures for ongoing construction and capital maintenance. Pricing 11/24. Settle 11/26 (T+2). Cusip: 5y: 26444HAT8, 10y: 26444HAU5. ISIN: 5y: US26444HAT86, 10y: US26444HAU59.
VIA CIBC/Citi (B&D)/MS/MUFG/Sant/SMBC/TD/USB joint active books.
Announced as a benchmark, we heard initial price thoughts as 5y T+90 area, 10y T+112.5 area.
Went straight to launch at $500m 5y at T+62. $600m 10y at T+82.
Ultimately, a $1.1bn deal priced as follows:
$500m 4.20% 12/1/30 99.861 4.231% T+62. MW+10.
$600m 4.85% 12/1/35 99.968 4.854% T+82. MW+15.
As for r/v, outstanding DUK was quoted as follows:
-DUK 1.750% due 06/15/30 T+54bp (G56; $90.085) - $500M pxd Jun 2020
-DUK 2.400% due 12/15/31 T+64bp (G53; $90.192) - $650M pxd Nov 2021
-DUK 5.875% due 11/15/33 T+57bp (G75; $108.092) - $600M pxd Nov 2023
-DUK 6.200% due 11/15/53 T+93bp ($108.07) - $700M pxd Nov 2023
** 10yr - outstanding Nov 33s G75; plus 7bp for ‘33/’35 curve = T+82bp. At the T+82bp pricing level, 10YR CONCESSION IS FLAT.
** 5yr - 10yr f/v T+82bp; minus 22.5bp 5s/10s curve at IPT = T+59.5bp f/v.
Or look at outstanding Jun 30s G56; plus 3bp for the 6 months extension = T+59bp.
Call 5yr f/v T+59bp. At the T+62bp pricing level, 5YR CONCESSION IS 3BP.
Comps away:
Duke Energy Carolinas (Aa3/A/N/A)
-DUK 4.850% due 03/15/30 T+49bp (G53; $102.862) - $400M pxd Jan 2025
-DUK 5.250% due 03/15/35 T+71bp (G78; $103.584) - $700M pxd Jan 2025
Duke Energy Progress LLC (Aa3/A/N/A)
-DUK 3.450% due 03/15/29 T+35bp (G45; $98.418) - $600M pxd Mar 2019
-DUK 5.050% due 03/15/35 T+77bp (G84; $101.699) - $850M pxd Mar 2025
Duke Energy Ohio Inc (A2/A/N/A)
-DUK 5.300% due 06/15/35 T+81bp (G86; $103.269) - $350M pxd 06/02/25 +88
Florida Power & Light Co (Aa2/A+/AA-)
-NEE 5.150% due 06/15/29 T+32bp (G41; $103.82) - $750M pxd May 2024
-NEE 5.300% due 06/15/34 T+57bp (G71; $104.67) - $1.1B pxd May 2024
MidAmerican Energy Co (Aa2/A/N/A)
-BRKHEC 3.650% due 04/15/29 T+41bp (G50; $98.817) - $850M pxd Jan 2019
-BRKHEC 5.350% due 01/15/34 T+60bp (G77; $104.605) - $350M pxd Sep 2023
Consumers Energy Co (A1/A/A+)
-CMS 4.500% due 01/15/31 T+62bp (G62; $101.175) - $500M pxd Apr 2025
-CMS 5.050% due 05/15/35 T+72bp (G80; $102.053) - $625M pxd Apr 2025
Commonwealth Edison Co (A1/A/WD)
-EXC 2.200% due 03/01/30 T+47bp (G51; $92.681) - $350M pxd Feb 2020
-EXC 5.300% due 06/01/34 T+57bp (G70; $104.652) - $400M pxd May 2024
Connecticut Light & Pwr (A2/A/A+ *-)
-ES 4.950% due 01/15/30 T+58bp (G63; $102.79) - $400M pxd Jan 2025
-ES 4.950% due 08/15/34 T+75bp (G87; $101.06) - $300M pxd Aug 2024
Centerpoint Energy Houston (A2/A/A)
-CNP 4.800% due 03/15/30 T+50bp (G54; $102.631) - $500M pxd Feb 2025
-CNP 4.950% due 08/15/35 T+78bp (G82; $100.92) - $600M pxd 08/04/25 +80
FINAL BOOKS:
$500m 5yr - $3.800bn (7.60x) - PEAK $4.200bn
$600m 10yr - $3.550bn (5.92x) - PEAK $4.900bn