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Commentary & Deal Flow

CFR CREDIT CLOSE: New January Record!

IGC APAC Market: Commentary - GeneralIGC APAC Market: Commentary - CloseIGC European Market: Commentary - GeneralIGC European Market: Commentary - CloseEM LATM: Commentary - GeneralEM LATM: Commentary - CloseIGC US Market: Commentary - GeneralIGC US Market: Commentary - Close

In this morning’s Kick Off, we said we needed $6.630bn today to break the January volume record—and we got more than enough. January 2026 now stands at $199.021bn, officially a new January record. Ultimately, six deals priced today for a total of $9.750bn, bringing weekly issuance to $20.450bn—still more than $6bn below the average estimate ($26.912bn) heading into FOMC Wednesday.

LARGEST JANUARY VOLUME - TOP 10

JANUARY

VOLUME

RANK

2026

$199.021

1

2025

$195.900

2

2024

$194.570

3

2017

$172.876

4

2022

$152.091

5

2023

$147.800

6

2020

$140.090

7

2021

$137.020

8

2018

$129.310

9

2016

$125.349

10


Today, the IG market also saw its first domestic corporate issuance in over a week, with FDX printing a $3.7bn four-part deal. The transaction was also a rare spin-off deal—the last occurring on 4/2/25 with Holcim, which remains the only spin-off deal of 2025 to date. While FDX’s $3.7bn transaction does not rank among the largest spin-offs, below is a refresher on the biggest spin-off deals since 2020. FDX also has the largest oversubscription on this list with 7.65x covered.


2020-26 LARGEST SPINS

DATE

Issuer

Ticker

DEAL

Book

O/S

Top Sector

MDY

SP

2/13/20

Carrier Global Corp

UTX

$9,250

$40,800

4.41

ind

Baa3

BBB

3/21/22

GSK Consumer Healthcare Capital

HALEON

$8,750

$33,800

3.86

ind

Baa1

BBB

11/9/22

GE Healthcare Holding LLC

GEHC

$8,250

$24,300

2.95

ind

Baa2

BBB

3/8/23

Kenvue Inc

KVUE

$7,750

$42,800

5.52

ind

A1

A

2/23/24

Solventum Corporation

SOLV

$6,900

$16,800

2.43

ind

Baa3

BBB-

3/31/22

Corebridge Financial Inc

CRBG

$6,500

$25,900

3.98

fin

Baa2

BBB+

12/2/21

Daimler Trucks Finance

DTRGR

$6,000

$13,100

2.18

ind

A3

BBB+

7/20/21

Vmware Inc

VMW

$6,000

$20,250

3.38

ind

Baa2

BBB-

2/19/20

Otis Worldwide Corp

OTIS

$5,300

$24,000

4.53

ind

Baa2

BBB

8/14/24

6297782 LLC (US LiquidsCo)

SOUBOW

$4,750

$32,600

6.86

yind

Baa3

BBB-

1/27/26

 FedEx Freight

FDX

$3,700

$28,300

7.65

ind

Baa3

BBB-

4/2/25

Holcim Finance US LLC

HOLNSW

$3,400

$14,200

4.18

yind

Baa1

BBB+

10/7/21

Kyndryl Holdings Inc

KD

$2,400

$6,250

2.60

ind

Baa2

BBB-

9/11/23

Veralto Corp

VLTO

$2,100

$6,100

2.90

ind

Baa1

BBB

5/30/24

Solvay Finance (America) LLC

SYENS

$1,200

$5,200

4.33

yind

Baa1

BBB+

3/30/22

America Movil S.A.B. de C.V.

SILAMX

$1,000

$2,300

2.30

yind

NR

BB+

6/17/21

GXO Logistics Inc

GXO

$800

$3,400

4.25

ind

NR

BBB-

10/5/23

UL Solutions Inc

ULS

$300

$600

2.00

ind

Baa3

BBB


Banks extended the record-breaking January issuance further today with the addition of MQGAU and RY, pushing MTD volume to $111.15bn.


Meanwhile, PACLIF $600m 5yr brings MTD FABN volume to $9.700bn, currently the 3rd largest FABN month on record and advancing towards the top spots of all time (Jan 2025 is the current record holder with $12.05bn). PACLIF (Aa3/AA-/AA-) priced at T+58bp, flat to where NWMLIC and NYLIFE, both Aa1/AA+/AAA, priced two weeks ago. The favorable backdrop suggests more FABN issuers could follow. (See the low spreads table below for how it ranks vs. the others)


For spread notables, FDX's tranches ranked as the tightest or 2nd-tightest spreads compared to other low BBB tenors back through 2022 (low BBB is defined as Baa3/BBB- or lower by Moody's + S&P):

The 10y at T+107 is 2nd behind only MU at T+102 on 1/13/25:

2022-26 low BBB 10yr LOW SPREADS









DATE

Ticker

Top Sector

MDY

SP

FTCH

Size

Mat

Final

Coupon

Spread

1/13/25

MU

ind

Baa3

BBB-

BBB

$1,000

10

1/15/35

5.800%

102

1/27/26

FXD

ind

Baa3

BBB-

 

$1,000

10

3/15/36

5.250%

107

10/30/25

MSCI

fin

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$500

11

3/15/36

5.150%

110

8/5/25

MSCI

fin

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$1,250

10

9/1/35

5.250%

112.5

11/20/24

APP

ind

Ba1

BBB-

BBB-

$1,000

10

12/1/34

5.500%

112.5

6/23/25

MRVL

yind

Baa3

BBB-

BBB

$500

10

7/15/35

5.450%

115

6/11/25

BRO

fin

Baa3

BBB-

BBB

$1,000

10

6/23/35

5.550%

117

The 7y at T+97 ties for the #1 spot with JBL from last week:

2022-26 low BBB 7yr LOW SPREADS









DATE

Ticker

Top Sector

MDY

SP

FTCH

Size

Mat

Final

Coupon

Spread

1/27/26

FXD

ind

Baa3

BBB-

 

$700

7

3/15/33

4.950%

97

1/14/26

JBL

ind

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$500

7

2/1/33

4.750%

97

2/18/25

HCA

ind

Baa3

BBB-


$750

7

3/1/32

5.500%

103

11/20/24

APP

ind

Ba1

BBB-

BBB-

$1,000

7

12/1/31

5.375%

105

6/11/25

BRO

fin

Baa3

BBB-

BBB

$500

7

6/23/32

5.250%

107

12/9/24

VICI

fin

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$750

7

11/15/31

5.125%

107

11/18/24

H

ind

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$450

7

12/15/31

5.375%

107

The 5y at T+85 ties for the #1 spot with JBL from 11/20/24:

2022-26 low BBB 5yr LOW SPREADS









DATE

Ticker

Top Sector

MDY

SP

FTCH

Size

Mat

Final

Coupon

Spread

1/27/26

FXD

ind

Baa3

BBB-

 

$1,000

5

3/15/31

4.650%

85

11/20/24

APP

ind

Ba1

BBB-

BBB-

$1,000

5

12/1/29

5.125%

85

6/23/25

MRVL

yind

Baa3

BBB-

BBB

$500

5

7/15/30

4.750%

87.5

2/18/25

HCA

ind

Baa3

BBB-


$750

5

3/1/30

5.250%

90

11/18/24

H

ind

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$150

5

6/30/29

5.250%

90

6/11/25

BRO

fin

Baa3

BBB-

BBB

$800

5

6/23/30

4.900%

92

10/1/25

VST

util

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$500

5

10/15/30

4.600%

93

And the 5y at T+70 is 2nd only to JBL from last week at T+67:

2022-26 low BBB 3yr LOW SPREADS









DATE

Ticker

Top Sector

MDY

SP

FTCH

Size

Mat

Final

Coupon

Spread

1/14/26

JBL

ind

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$500

3

2/1/29

4.200%

67

1/27/26

FXD

ind

Baa3

BBB-

 

$1,000

3

3/15/29

4.300%

70

2/18/25

HCA

ind

Baa3

BBB-


$700

3

3/1/28

5.000%

70

10/7/25

SNX

ind

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$550

3

1/17/29

4.300%

75

10/1/25

VST

util

Baa3

BBB-

BBB-

$750

3

10/15/28

4.300%

75

7/23/24

OXY

ind

Baa3

BB+

BBB-

$600

3

8/1/27

5.000%

75

6/11/25

BRO

fin

Baa3

BBB-

BBB

$500

3

6/23/28

4.700%

80


PACLIF’s 5y spread at T+58 ranked towards the top for tightest FABN spreads since 2022 and also ties for the tightest spread YTD with NWMLIC and NYLIFE:

2022-26 5yr FABN LOW SPREADS









DATE

Ticker

Top Sector

MDY

SP

FTCH

Size

Mat

Final

Coupon

Spread

1/4/22

NWMLIC

fin

Aaa

AA+

AAA

$550

5

1/11/27

1.750%

40

1/8/25

NWMLIC

fin

Aaa

AA+

AAA

$500

5

1/13/30

4.960%

50

12/2/24

NYLIFE

fin

Aaa

AA+

AAA

$650

5

12/5/29

4.600%

52

1/3/22

MET

fin

Aa3

AA-

AA-

$900

5

1/11/27

1.875%

53

1/3/25

MASSMU

fin

Aa3

AA+

AA+

$500

5

1/10/30

4.950%

57

1/2/25

MET

fin

Aa3

AA-

AA-

$500

5

1/9/30

4.900%

57

1/27/26

PACLIF

fin

Aa3

AA-

AA-

$600

5

2/3/31

4.375%

58

1/6/26

NWMLIC

fin

Aa1

AA+

AAA

$600

5

1/13/31

4.300%

58

1/5/26

NYLIFE

fin

Aa1

AA+

AAA

$650

5

1/9/31

4.250%

58

5/27/25

NYLIFE

fin

Aa1

AA+

AAA

$600

5

6/3/30

4.600%

58

5/27/25

NWMLIC

fin

Aa1

AA+

AAA

$400

5

6/3/30

4.600%

58


MQGAU is the third 2yr bank to price YTD, along with RABOBK and TD, all three rank towards the top of the tightest since 2022 (with RABOBK tied for #1):

2022-26 2yr BANK LOW SPREADS










DATE

Ticker

Top Sector

Sub 1

MDY

SP

FTCH

Size

Mat

Final

Coupon

Spread

1/7/26

RABOBK

yfin

bank

Aa2

A+

AA-

$400

2

1/14/28

3.743%

28

11/20/24

STT

fin

bank

Aa2

AA-

AA

$1,150

2

11/15/26

4.594%

28

11/20/24

CBAAU

yfin

bank

Aa2

AA-

AA-

$1,300

2

11/27/26

4.577%

28

11/12/24

WSTP

yfin

bank

Aa2

AA-


$750

2

10/20/26

4.600%

28

12/9/24

ANZ 

yfin

bank

Aa2

AA-

AA-

$650

2

12/16/26

4.420%

30

1/27/26

MQGAU

yfin

bank

Aa2

A+

A+

$850

2

2/3/28

3.915%

35

5/8/24

WSTP

yfin

bank

Aa2

AA-


$750

2

4/16/26

5.200%

37.5

5/19/25

RABOBK

yfin

bank

Aa2

A+

AA-

$500

2

5/27/27

4.372%

40

8/21/24

RABOBK

yfin

bank

Aa2

A+

AA-

$500

2

8/28/26

4.333%

43

1/6/26

TD

yfin

bank

A2

A-

AA-

$1,000

2

1/13/28

3.913%

45

12/9/24

TD

yfin

bank

A2

A-

AA-

$1,100

2

12/17/26

4.568%

45


Here's Today's Rundown:


[FEDEX FREIGHT]

FedEx Freight Holding Co Inc (FDX) exp Baa3/BBB- (s/s) US$3.7bn 144A/Reg S with reg rights 4-part sr notes (3y FXD due 3/15/29, 5y FXD due 3/15/31, 7y FXD due 3/15/33 and 10y FXD due 3/15/36). MWC then 1mo par call on 3y (2/15/29), 1mo on 5y (2/15/31), 2mos on 7y (1/15/33) and 3mos on 10y (12/15/35). 101 CoC. Guarantor: FedEx Corporation (to be released upon completion of the spin-off) and FedEx Freight, Inc. will initially guarantee the notes. FedEx Custom Critical, Inc. will become a subsidiary guarantor upon completion of the spin-off. Special Mandatory Redemption (SMR): 101%, if spin-off not completed by February 5, 2027 or Company notifies trustee on or prior to February 5, 2027 that FedEx will not pursue the spin-off. Denoms: 2,000 x 1,000. Sale into Canada; Yes - Exemption. UOP: In connection with the consummation of the Spin-Off, the company intends to distribute to FedEx the aggregate amount of the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes as part of the consideration for FedEx’s contribution of assets to the company in connection with the Spin-Off. Pending the consummation of the Spin-Off, the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes will be held in a segregated account. Marketing: https://www.netroadshow.com/nrs/home/#!/?show=0c0c72bb. Pricing 1/27. Settle 2/5 (T+7). 144A Cusip: 3y: 314352AA3, 5y: 314352AC9, 7y: 314352AE5, 10y: 314352AG0. 144A ISIN: 3y: US314352AA31, 5y: US314352AC96, 7y: US314352AE52, 10y: US314352AG01. 


VIA BofA/Citi/GS (B&D on 5y and 7y)/JPM (B&D on 3y and 10y)/WFS joint active books.

Announced with benchmark size, final size came in at $3.7bn with price progression as follows:

3yr - IPT T+100 area; STL T+70; PXD $1bn 4.30% 3/15/29 99.870 4.343% T+70. MW+10.

5yr - IPT T+115 area; STL T+85; PXD $1bn 4.65% 3/15/31 99.907 4.669% T+85. MW+15.

7yr - IPT T+130 area; STL T+97; PXD $700m 4.95% 3/15/33 99.749 4.991% T+97. MW+15.

10yr - IPT T+140 area; STL T+107; PXD $1bn 5.25% 3/15/36 99.611 5.299% T+107. MW+20.


As for r/v, this is the debut issuance from FedEx Freight thus CONCESSION N/A.

 FedEx Corp (Baa2/BBB)
-FDX 4.250% due 05/15/30 T+42bp (G47; $100.08) - $404m pxd AUG 2025
-FDX 3.900% due 02/01/35 T+67bp (G72; $92.89) - $389m pxd AUG 2025

Looking at FedEx Corp’s outstanding, FedEx Frieght ended up pricing about 30-35bp back of FedEx Corp’s f/v levels.

GXO Logistics Inc (Baa3/BBB-/BBB-)
-GXO 6.250% due 05/06/29 T+81bp (G79; $105.30) - $600m pxd APRL 2024
-GXO 6.500% due 05/06/34 T+106bp (G118; $107.94) - $500m pxd APRL 2024

Penske Truck Leasing Co (Baa2/BBB/BBB+)
-PENSKE 4.550% due 01/15/31 T+82bp (G82; $99.65) - $500m pxd 01/06/26 +85

GATX Corp (Baa2/BBB/BBB+)
-GMT 5.500% due 06/15/35 T+90bp (G95; $102.79) - $700m pxd FEB 2025

Triton Container International Ltd (NR/BBB/BBB-)
-TRTN 5.150% due 02/15/33 T+118bp (G117; $99.77) - $600m pxd 01/13/6 +125

FINAL BOOKS:

$1bn 3yr - $6.400bn (6.40x) - PEAK $6.900bn

$1bn 5yr - $6.600bn (6.60x) - PEAK $7.300bn

$700m 7yr - $7.200bn (10.29x) - PEAK $8.400bn

$1bn 10yr - $8.100bn (8.10x) - PEAK $9.600bn


[MAQUARIE]

Macquarie Bank Ltd (MQGAU) exp Aa2/A+/A+ (s/s/s) US$1.7bn 144a/Reg S 2y FXD and/or FLOATING sr notes due 2/3/28.. Denoms: 2,000 x 1,000. Law: New York. Listing: None. UOP: gcp. Pricing 1/27. Settle 2/3 (T+5). 144A CUSIP: 2y FXD: 55608PBZ6, 2y FRN: 55608PCA0. 144A ISIN: 2y FXD: US55608PBZ62, 2y FRN: US55608PCA03.

VIA BofA/JPM/Macquarie/MS/WFS joint books.

Announced with benchmark size, we heard initial thoughts as T+60 area and SOFR equiv.

Guidance came in at 2y FXD T+35#, 3y FRN SOFR+48#.

Ultimately, a $1.7bn deal priced as follows:

$850m 2/3/28 FRN at SOFR+48, at 100.

$850m 3.915% 2/3/28 100.00 3.915% T+35. 

As for r/v, outstanding MQGAU was quoted as follows:

-MQGAU 4.331% due 06/12/28 T+40bp (G37; $100.81) - $750m pxd JUN 2025

We heard recently priced NAB was a relevant comp:

National Australia Bank Ltd (Aa2/AA-)
-NAB 3.850% due 12/13/28 T+29bp (G30; $99.78) - $650m pxd 01/06/26 +35
-NAB FRN due 12/13/28 DM+53 ($100.00) - $600m pxd 01/06/26 S+53

*** NAB Dec ’28 G30, call new issue NAB 3y at 32bp. Take away 5-10bp for 3s/2s curve call new issue NAB 2y at 25bp.

The Macquarie/Aussie differential has historically been around 10bp, but has tightened and is closer to around 5-10bp pointing. Adding in this differential, call f/v at T+33bp. At the T+35bp pricing level, CONCESSION IS 2BP.

COMPS AWAY:

Cooperative Rabobank (Aa2/A+/AA-)
-RABOBK 3.743% due 01/14/28 T+23bp (G22; $99.89) - $400m pxd 01/07/26 +28
-RABOBK FRN due 01/14/28 DM+37 ($100.08) - $500m pxd 01/07/26 S+41

ANZ New Zealand International (A1/AA-/A+)
-ANZNZ 4.000% due 01/22/29 T+39bp (G38; $99.91) - $500m pxd 01/14/26 +45
-ANZNZ FRN due 01/14/29 DM+60 ($100.03) - $500m pxd 01/14/26 S+61

Westpac New Zealand Ltd (A1/AA-)
-WSTPNZ 4.127% due 01/29/29 T+43bp (G43; $100.16) - $750m pxd 01/22/26 +45

FINAL BOOKS:

$850m 2yr FRN - $2.500bn (2.94x) - PEAK $2.700bn

$850m 2yr FXD - $1.900bn (2.24x) - PEAK $2.300bn



[PT PERUSAHAAN LISTRIK NEGARA]

PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) (PLNIJ), exp issue ratings Baa2/BBB by Moody's/Fitch (issuer ratings Baa2/BBB/BBB (s/s/s)), US$1.5bn 144A/Reg S 2-part sr notes (5y FXD due 2/3/31 and 10y FXD due 2/3/36). 1mo par call on 5y (1/3/31) and 3mos on 10y (11/3/35). Redemption - Clean-up call: If at any time in respect of a Series the outstanding principal amount of Notes of that Series is less than 10% (or any other percentage specified in the Pricing Supplement) of the principal amount of all of the Notes originally issued under that Series following a (1) Change of Control Offer or (2) any tender offer, all Notes in respect of which any such notice is given shall be redeemed on the date specified in such notice. Governing Law: New York Law. Clearing: Euroclear / Clearstream and DTC. Listing: SGX-ST. Denoms: US$200k/1k. Off of the Issuer's US$ 15bn Global Medium Term Note Program. UOP: Net proceeds will be used to partially fund the Issuer's capital expenditure requirements for transmission, distribution, and non-coal related generation projects in relation to the acceleration of electricity infrastructure development (pembangunan infrastruktur ketenagalistrikan) in accordance with PR 4/2016 (as amended), as well as for general corporate purposes restricted to non-coal related projects. For the avoidance of doubt, the net proceeds will not be applied in connection with any of the Issuer's or its subsidiaries’ existing and planned coal-fired power assets (including, but not limited to, their construction and working capital requirements). Pricing 1/27. Settle 2/3.

VIA Citi/HSBC (B&D)/Mandiri/MUFG/SMBC/StanChart as JLMs/JBRs. 

Announced as a benchmark, we heard initial price thoughts as 5y 5.15% area, 10y 5.85% area.

Final price guidance came in as 5y 4.80%#, 10y 5.50%#.

Ultimately, a $1.5bn deal priced as follows:

$500m 4.75% 2/3/31 99.780 4.80%. T+98.1.

$1bn 5.45% 2/3/36 99.619 5.50%. T+127.1.

As for r/v, outstanding PLNIJ was quoted as follows:
-PLNIJ 3.000% due 06/30/30 4.671% YTW ($93.34; G90) - $500M pxd Jun 2020

** 5yr - Outstanding Jun 30s 4.671%; 5s/10s worth 70bp at IPT, splitting between 35bp 5s/7s and 35s 7s/10s, each month in the front end is worth 1.46bp; Jun 30s 4.671% plus 10bp for curve, call f/v 4.77% .

** 10yr – 5yr f/v 4.77% plus 70bp 5s/10s curve at IPT = T+5.47%.

Based on the secondaries above, the nics are each low single digits. But since this is PLNIJ’s first deal since June of 2020, there is some price discovery involved. 

We heard that the leads believed, based on the marketing and feedback, that concession is closer to 0. CONCESSION IS FLAT on both tranches.

The sovereign was quoted as follows:
Republic of Indonesia (Baa2/BBB/BBB)
-INDON 4.350% due 02/21/31 4.457% YTW (G63; $99.47) - $1.1B exch 01/12/26  (PLNIJ new 10yr landed about 34 back)

-INDON 4.950% due 02/21/36  5.042% YTW (G81; $99.26) - $1.1B exch 01/12/26 (PLNIJ new 10yr landed about 45 back)


FINAL BOOKS:

$500m 5yr - $2.800bn (5.60x)

$1bn 10yr - $4.800bn (4.80x)


[CODELCO]

Corporación Nacional del Cobre de Chile ("CODELCO" | Ticker: CDEL) exp Baa2/BBB+ US$1.25bn 144A/Reg S 2-part sr notes (new 11y due 1/30/37 and reopening of 6.30% 9/8/53). MWC then 3mos par call on 11y (10/30/36) and 6mos on 2053 tap (3/8/53). Tax call. Coupon Type: Fixed rate, semi-annual 30/360 day-count convention. Denoms: $200,000 x $1,000. Listing: Luxembourg Stock Exchange / Euro MTF. Governing Law: New York. UOP: gcp. Marketing: URL: https://dealroadshow.com Entry Code: CDEL2026; Direct Link: https://dealroadshow.com/e/CDEL2026. Pricing 1/27. Settle 1/30 (T+3). 144A CUSIP: 11y: 21987BBQ0, 2053 tap: 21987BBH0. 144A ISIN: 11y: US21987BBQ05, 2053 tap: US21987BBH06.

VIA BofA/CACIB/HSBC/Sant (B&D) joint books.

Announced as a benchmark size, though unofficial indications that the issuer would look to print up to $1.25bn, we heard initial price thoughts of T+165bp area on the new 11-year, and T+165bp area on the 2053 tap.

Guidance came in at T+130bp# (the number) on the 11-year, and T+132bp# (the number) for the long bond tap. Codelco then launched a $1bn new 11-year and added $250m to the 2053s – both in line with guidance.

Ultimately the deal was priced as follows:

$1bn 5.529% 01/30/2027 @ 100.00 yld 5.529%. T+130bp. MW+20

$250m 6.300% 09/08/2053 @ 101.879 yld 6.156%. T+132bp. MW+30

There is now $1.45bn outstanding under the 2053s, which were originally issued in September 2023 for $700m, then tapped for a further $500m in January 2025.

BOOKS: 

$1bn 11yr - $5.250bn (5.25x) - PEAK $6.600bn

$250m 2053 Tap - $1.150bn (4.60x) - PEAK $2.400bn

As for r/v, outstanding CDEL was quoted as follows:

-CDEL 6.330% due 01/13/35 T+119 (G127; $106.34) - $1.45B pxd Jan 2025

-CDEL 6.440% due 01/26/36 T+123 (G124; $107.38) - $1.50B pxd Jan 2024

-CDEL 6.300% due 09/08/53 T+134 (G135; $101.76) - $1.20B pxd Sept 2023


For the new 11-year, the Jan 2036s maturing in 10 years provided the closest comp, but the January 2035s are a fresher reference having been issued 12 months ago and tapped in September. Estimates for the extension ranged from 5bp-6bp (a traditional US IG measure) to 10bp, given the Chile sovereign 10 to 11 year curve (11bp differential). At the high end of fair value, we heard a quote off-deal of T+126bp plus 9bp to get to T+135bp, while a couple of sources away from the leads had slightly tighter quotes and made lower adjustment and thought T+125bp-130bp. At the same time, adding 5bp to the G+127bp level on the 2035s takes us to fair value of 132bp.

Taking the midpoint of quotes, curve extension estimates, and on and off-deal final numbers on NIC, 132bp feels is the consensus for fair value. Therefore, at T+130bp CONCESSION IS NEG 2BP.

The 10s to 30s curve is extremely flat. And with the outstanding 2053s at T+134bp, at the launch level of T+132bp CONCESSION IS NEG 2BP on the longer bond. This is also in line with where syndicates off-deal were spotting the bond (range T+132bp-T+135bp).


[ROYAL BANK OF CANADA]

Royal Bank of Canada (RY), exp security ratings Baa2 (hyb)/BBB/BBB+ (s/s/s), US$1bn SEC registered 60NC7 fixed rate reset jr subordinated Additional Tier 1, Limited Recourse Capital Notes, Series 8, (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (Subordinated Indebtedness) due 05/24/86. Interest Reset Dates: May 24, 2033 and each fifth anniversary date thereafter. Coupon Type: Fixed for 7 years and then resets every 5 years at the prevailing 5 year U.S. Treasury Rate plus [ ]%. Interest Payment Dates: Quarterly on February 24, May 24, August 24, and November 24 of each year, beginning May 24, 2026 (long first coupon). Denoms: $200k x $1k. Sale into Canada: Yes - Exemption. UOP: General Business Purposes. Pricing 01/27. Settle 01/30 (T+3). CUSIP: 780082BA0 . ISIN: US780082BA05.  


VIA RBC (B&D)/Citi/JPM/MS/UBS joint books.

Announced with benchmark size, we heard initial thoughts as 6.625%-6.75% area.

Went straight to launch at $1bn 60nc7 at 6.50%.

Ultimately, a $1bn deal priced as follows:

$1bn 6.50% 5/4/86 100.00 6.50%. Back-end reset: T+245.0.

As for r/v, outstanding RY was quoted as follows:

-RY 6.750% due 08/24/85 nc30 $103.70 (G209; 5.82% YTC) - $1.25bn pxd JUN 2025 b/e +281.5
-RY 6.500% due 11/24/85 nc35 $99.65 (G239; 6.55% YTC) - $1.35bn pxd SEPT 2025 b/e +246.2

*** Most recent outstanding NC Nov ’35 6.55% minus 15-20bp call NC 7 at 6.375%.

Outstanding b/e at 246.2, new issue b/e at 245.0, b/e not significant to adjust for.

Call f/v at 6.375%. At the 6.50% pricing level, CONCESSION IS 12.5BP.


TD was also a relevant comp pointing to f/v in a similar spot:

Toronto Dominion Bank (Baa2/BBB-/BBB+)
-TD 6.350% due 10/31/85 nc30 $101.25 (G230; 6.05% YTC) - $750m pxd SEPT 2025 b/e +272.1

*** TD NC Oct ’30 6.05%,, add 20-25bp to get to NC7 at 6.275%.

Outstanding b/e 272.1 minus outstanding G230 = 42.2 *0.2 = 8.4bp.

Outstanding b/e 272.1 minus new issue b/e 245.0 = 27.1 *0.3 = 8.13bp

Add 10bp for b/e differential points to f/v at 6.375%. At the 6.50% pricing level, CONCESSION IS 12.5BP.


 COMPS AWAY:

Bank of Montreal (Baa3/BBB-)
-BMO 7.300% due 11/26/84 nc34 $106.50 (G224; 6.33% YTC) - $750m pxd JUL 2024 b/e +301.0

JPMorgan Chase & Co (Baa1/BBB/BBB+)
-JPM 6.500% PerpNC 04/01/30 $103.75 (G178; 5.49% YTC) - $3bn pxd JAN 2025 b/e +215.2

Bank of America Corp (Baa2/BBB-/BBB+)
-BAC 6.250% PerpNC 07/26/30 $101.30 (G219; 5.92% YTC) - $2.5bn pxd JUL 2025 b/e +235.1

Bank of New York Mellon Corp (Baa1/BBB/BBB+)
-BK 5.950% PerpNC 12/20/30 $101.40 (G181; 5.62% YTC) - $500m pxd SEPT 2025 b/e +227.1

State Street (Baa1/BBB/BBB+)
-STT 6.450% PerpNC 09/15/30 $103.00 (G196; 5.71% YTC) - $750m pxd JAN 2025 b/e +213.5

Goldman Sachs (Ba1/BB+/BBB-)
-GS 6.850% PerpNC 02/10/30 $103.75 (G206; 5.79% YTC) - $1.9bn pxd JAN 2025 b/e +246.1

Nordea Bank Abp (NR/BBB/BBB+)
-NDAFH 6.750% PerpNC 11/10/33 $103.75 (G207; 5.79% YTC) - $850m pxd SEPT 2025 b/e +272.3

HSBC Holdings PLC (Baa3/NR/BBB)
-HSBC 7.050% PerpNC 06/05/30 $103.75 (G230; 6.05% YTC) - $2bn pxd MAY 2025 b/e +298.7

FINAL BOOK:

$1bn 60nc7 - $2.275bn (2.28x) - PEAK $2.750bn


[PACIFIC LIFE GLOBAL FUNDING II]

Pacific Life Global Funding II (PACLIF) exp Aa3/AA-/AA- (s/s/s) US$600m 144A/Reg S no reg rights 5y FXD sr secured FA-Backed due 2/3/31. FA Provider: Pacific Life Insurance Company. Denoms: 2,000 x 1,000. Sale into Canada: yes - Exemption. UOP: To purchase a Funding Agreement from Pacific Life Insurance Company. Pricing 1/27. Settle 2/3 (T+5). 144A CUSIP: 6944PL3M9. 144A ISIN: US6944PL3M96. 

VIA Citi/JPM (B&D)/MS/WFS joint active books. 

Announced as a benchmark, we heard initial price thoughts as T+80 area.

Guidance came in at T+58#.

After pricing a GBP400m 6.25yr Regs S only deal earlier this month, the 5yr US$600m deal priced as follows:

$600m 4.375% 2/3/31 99.898 4.398% T+58. 

As for r/v, outstanding PACLIF was quoted as follows:

-PACLIF 4.450% due 05/01/28 T+39bp (G37; $101) - $600M pxd Apr 2025
-PACLIF 4.850% due 02/10/30 T+52bp (G60; $101.84) - $400M pxd Feb 2025
-PACLIF 4.875% due 07/17/32 T+77bp (G62; $101.54) - $600M pxd Jul 2025

These are fairly old for the space, so we look it as flat vs recently priced MET:

Met Life GF (Aa3/AA-/AA-)
-MET 4.150% due 08/25/28 T+42bp (G38; $100.34) - $600m pxd 08/19/25 +45
-MET 4.350% due 01/12/31 T+55bp (G55; $99.88) - $750m pxd 01/05/26 +65

** MET Jan 31s G55; call new PACLIF f/v flat to that at T+55bp. At the T+58bp pricing level, CONCESSION IS 3BP.

Comps away:

New York Life Global Funding (Aa1/AA+/AAA)
-NYLIFE 4.050% due 02/02/29 T+40bp (G39; $99.99) - $700M pxd 01/26/26 +40
-NYLIFE 4.250% due 01/09/31 T+52bp (G52; $99.58) - $650m pxd 01/05/26 +58
-NYLIFE 5.350% due 01/23/35 T+49bp (G55; $104.63) - $750m pxd Jan 2025

Northwestern Mutual GF (Aa1/AA+/AAA)
-NWMLIC 4.125% due 08/25/28 T+42bp (G38; $100.28) - $500M pxd 08/18/25 +40
-NWMLIC 4.300% due 01/13/31 T+52bp (G52; $99.8) - $600M pxd 01/06/26 +58

Met Tower Global Funding (Aa3/AA-/AA-)
-MET 4.000% due 01/14/29 T+44bp (G44; $99.73) - $600M pxd 01/07/26 +52
-MET 4.200% due 09/16/30 T+50bp (G53; $99.47) - $500m pxd 09/09/25 +65

Massmutual Global Funding (Aa3/AA+/AA+)
-MASSMU 4.000% due 01/22/29 T+43bp (G43; $99.75) - $600M pxd 01/14/26 +50

Pricoa Global Funding 1 (Aa3/AA-/AA-)
-PRU 4.350% due 11/25/30 T+52bp (G53; $100.01) - $500M pxd 11/18/25 +68
-PRU 4.650% due 01/12/33 T+71bp (G71; $99.53) - $500M pxd 01/05/26 +77
-PRU 5.350% due 05/28/35 T+69bp (G72; $103.22) - $600M pxd May 2025

FINAL BOOKS:

$600m 5yr FABN - $1.000bn (1.67x) - PEAK $1.500bn


[LATAM PRICED]

– FS Luxembourg S.à r.l., exp Ba3/BB- by Moody's/Fitch, US$ Benchmark 144A/Reg S 10nc5 sr unsec green bond due 2/11/36. First Call date 2/11/31. MS (B&D)/HSBC/Santander as JGCs. BTG Pactual/Citi/JPM/Miz/XP as JBRs. Co-mgr: BCP Secs. Guarantors: FS Indústria de Biocombustíveis Ltda. & FS I Indústria de Etanol S.A. Denoms: 200k x 1k. Listing: Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX-ST). Governing Law: State of New York. First Pay: 8/11/26. UOP: Finance or refinance Eligible Green Projects, including to fund the concurrent Tender Offer for the 2031 Notes and capital expenditures related to the production of corn ethanol. DealRoadshow Link: Direct Link: https://dealroadshow.com/e/FSBIOE2026 ORhttps://dealroadshow.com and enter the entry code: FSBIOE2026 (not case-sensitive). Pricng 1/27. Settle 2/11 (T+11).

IPTs: Mid to hi 8%s.

GUIDANCE: 8.500% area (+/-10bp)

LAUNCH: $500m @ 8.400%
PRICED: $500m 8.125% 2/11/36 @ 98.164 yld 8.40%


– The Province of Cordoba, exp B3/B- by Moody's/Fitch, US$800m 144A/Reg S 9y sr notes due 2/3/35. Amortizations: Annual amortizations equal to 33% in 2033, 33% in 2034 and 34% in 2035 (8-years weighted average life). MWC then 2mos par call (12/3/34). Tax Call. JPM (B&D)/Sant as JGCs/JBRs. International Selling Agents: Balanz, Puente. Argentine Placement Agents: Bancor, Balanz, Becerra, Facimex, Galicia, Macro Securities, Puente, Santander Argentina, S&C Inversiones. Coupon Type: Fixed Rate, payable semi-annually (30/360). Denoms: $10k x $1k. Governing Law: State of New York. Expected Listing: Luxembourg Euro MTF, BYMA / A3 Mercados. UOP: To repurchase the Step-up International Notes due 2027 validly tendered and accepted in the Tender Offer, and the remainder to finance infrastructure projects and/or repay existing liabilities. Marketing: URL: https://dealroadshow.com Entry Code: CORDOBA2026. Direct Link: https://dealroadshow.com/e/CORDOBA2026. Pricing 1/27. Settle 2/3 (T+5). 144A CUSIP/ISIN: 74408DAG9 / US74408DAG97.

IPTs: 9.25% area

GUIDANCE: 8.95%# (the number)

LAUNCH: $800m @ 8.95%

PRICED: $800m 8.600% 02/02/2035 @ 98.034 yld 8.95%


– Nova Securitisation S.à r.l. (issuer), exp BB/BB+ by S&P/Fitch, US$1.35bn 144A/3c7/Reg S 2-part A/B Blue Sr Secured Notes (5y FXD due 2/3/31 and 10y FXD due 2/3/36). MWC then 1mo par call on 5y (1/3/31) and 3mos on 10y (11/3/35). GS/Itau BBA/JPM (B&D) as JGCs/JBRs. Term Loan B Borrower: Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo (“Sabesp”). A/B Lender of Record: Inter-American Investment Corporation (“IDB Invest”). Sabesp Corporate Ratings: BB/BB+ by S&P/Fitch. Collateral: the obligations of the Issuer under the Notes will be secured by a first-priority security interest on the Issuer's assets, consisting principally of all cash and other proceeds received in connection with the Indenture and the Participation Agreement, its rights pursuant to its Participation in the Term Loan B and any amounts on deposit in the Issuer's loan collection account. Denoms: $200k x $1k. Listing: Luxembourg Stock Exchange. Sale into Canada: Yes, via exemption. Sale into Brazil: Not permitted; Refer to sales restrictions. Sales to export credit agency or other governmental, quasi-governmental or multilateral agency: Yes, subject to certain conditions; Refer to sales restrictions. Marketing: Direct link: https://dealroadshow.com/e/Sabesp2026 OR visit www.dealroadshow.com and enter code: Sabesp2026. Pricing 1/27. Settle 2/3 (T+5). 144A Cusip: 5y: 66984FAA5, 10y: 66984FAB3. 144A ISIN: 5y: US66984FAA57, 10y: US66984FAB31.

IPTs: 5y very low 6%, 10y very high 6%.

GUIDANCE: 5y 5.875%#, 10y 6.75%a (+/-12.5)

LAUNCH: 5y $850m @ 5.875%, 10y $500m @ 6.625%

PRICED:

$850m 5.750% 02/03/2031 @ 99.465 yld 5.875%. MW+35

$500m 6.500% 02/03/2036 @ 99.096 yld 6.625%. MW+40


[SSA PRICED]

CPPIB Capital Inc (CPPIBC) Aaa/AAA/AAA US$2.5bn 144A/3c7/Reg S 5y FXD sr notes due 2/15/31. Guarantor: Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments). BofA/CIBC/Citi/JPM/TD joint books. Coupon: Semi, 30/360, long first coupon 8/15/26. Denoms: 250k x 1k. List Irish Stock Exchange (GEM). New York Law. Pricing 1/27. Settle 2/2 (T+5). 

IPTs: SOFR MS+42 area.

FINAL SPREAD: SOFR MS+40.

LAUNCHED: $2.5bn 5y at SOFR MS+40. Books closed in excess of $17.5bn (excl. JLM interest).

PRICED: $2.5bn 3.875% 2/15/31 99.510 3.983% SOFR MS+40 (T+16.5).


[RETAIL PRICED]

Citigroup Inc (C) exp Ba1/BB+/BBB-/BBBH (s/s/s/s) US$800m SEC registered $25 par PerpNC5 Non-cumulative Preferred Stock, Series II. Citi (B&D) sole active books. JPM/MS/RBC/UBS/WFS as JLMs. Dividends: On the 15th of each February, May, August, and November (each date for payment of dividends, a “dividend payment date”) from, and including, the date of issuance of the Series II preferred stock at an annual rate of [ ]% on the liquidation preference amount of $25,000 per share of Series II preferred stock (equivalent to $25 liquidation preference per depositary share), quarterly in arrears, beginning on May 15, 2026. Optional Redemption: Citigroup may redeem the Series II preferred stock in whole at any time or in part, from time to time, on any dividend payment date on or after February 15, 2031 or in whole but not in part at any time within 90 days following a Regulatory Capital Event (as defined in the Preliminary Prospectus Supplement dated January 27, 2026), in each case at a cash redemption price equal to 100% of the liquidation preference, plus any declared and unpaid dividends and without accumulation of any undeclared dividends, to, but excluding, the redemption date. DRD/QDI: Yes. Denoms: 25 x 25. Listing: application will be made to list the depositary shares on the New York Stock Exchange. Day Count: 30/360. Sale into Canada; Yes - Wrapper. UOP: Citigroup expects to use the net proceeds from the sale of the depositary shares representing interests in the Series II preferred stock for general corporate purposes, which may include the partial or full redemption of outstanding shares of Citigroup preferred stock and related depositary shares, as applicable, and repurchases and redemptions of other outstanding securities of Citigroup and its subsidiaries, including Citigroup common stock. Pricing 1/27. Settle 2/3 (T+5). CUSIP: 172967242. ISIN: US1729672428.


IPTs: 6.50% area.

GUIDANCE: 6.25%#.

LAUNCHED: $800m PerpNC5 at 6.25%.


PRICED: $800m, 6.25% at par.

[M&A TODAY]

FedEx Freight hit the market with $3.7bn with proceeds going towards their pending spin-off. FedEx Corp initially announced the spin-off of FedEx Freight on December 19, 2024 which is expected to close by June 1st, 2026. An SMR is also attached to the tranches if the spin-off is not completed by February 5th, 2027.