• Last week delivered the robust start to September that most participants were expecting, with € IG delivering €33.925bn from 41 deals (10 x Corp, 24 x FIG & 7 x SSA).
• Friday itself was quiet with zero supply across € IG, £, Chf & US$ Reg S.
• CreditFlows robust supply survey (full results below) is forecasting another busy week ahead with €40.85bn expected for the week from over 38 deals.
• The majority of primary supply is expected to be front-loaded with the ECB on Thursday. The US Labor Day holiday today is not anticipated to have any impact on activity in Europe, with eyes over here more focused on Wednesday's US CPI data.
• EGB supply is expected to be strong.
• Also look for Reverse Yankee Corp & FIG supply (skew towards Corps).
• Brent Crude is climbing towards the $100 mark once again currently trading at c.$97.65; (over 3 dollars up on Friday’s close c.$94.47).
• The VIX has bumped slightly higher in response to the military activity over the weekend, though sits well off its recent highs from early last week; currently at c.14.53.
• iTraxx Europe & iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices start the week at 51.297, 53.597 & 86.423 respectively.
• Pipeline: The European IG pipeline currently has only 4 trades tabled for this week in both €’s & Sterling.
  • 1 x € Corp
  • 1 x € FIG (1 x covered)
  • 1 x € SSA (1 social)
  • 1 x £ SSA (Gilt - Tap)

Primary Supply Survey Results for this week

Key € IG Supply Stats from last week

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €6.35bn
  • Avg. tranche size €488m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -31.4
  • Avg. cover X 3.10
• FIG
  • Total IG: €14.78bn
  • Avg. tranche size €591m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -6.4 (covered)
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -26.9 (unsecured)
  • Avg. cover X 3.04
• SSA
  • Total IG: €12.80bn
  • Avg. tranche size €1.913bn
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -2.8
  • Avg. cover X 6.83

Geo-Political News

• US strike on Iranian tankers. In a sharp escalation in its conflict with Iran, US forces targeted & struck 3 empty Iranian oil tankers over the weekend following repeated aggressive actions against allied vessels in international waters. The military response was triggered after Iranian forces fired upon a US aircraft carrier & a guided-missile destroyer operating on routine security patrols in the Strait. Washington maintained that the defensive actions were strictly aimed at neutralising active threat capabilities & protecting commercial navigation routes from further hostility. Tehran condemned the strike as an unlawful act of aggression, threatening faster retaliatory responses. The incident has intensified market concerns regarding supply disruptions through key maritime chokepoints, elevating geopolitical risk premiums across energy sectors & compounding broader regional instability.
• Kyiv diplomatic offensive. Volodymyr Zelenskyy convened high-level discussions in Ukraine's capital with US diplomatic envoys to evaluate the ongoing war with Russia & outline long-term military requirements. The bilateral talks were subsequently expanded to include key European partners, forming a unified posture ahead of expected seasonal shifts in combat intensity. The Ukrainian leadership reiterated the urgent need for reinforced air defence capabilities, heavy artillery & continuous financial backing as military intelligence indicates Moscow is preparing for sustained operations through the winter months. The diplomatic exchange followed preliminary consultations between American representatives & Russian officials in Moscow, which yielded no tangible concessions or pathway toward a ceasefire. European leadership reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining sanctions against Russia while exploring accelerated channels for security assistance, underscoring persistent strategic alignment between transatlantic partners despite ongoing logistical challenges.
• Far-right victory in Saxony-Anhalt. Regional elections in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt concluded with an historic triumph for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), marking the party's first win in a state parliament since the Second World War. Campaigning heavily on anti-immigration platforms, economic protectionism & an immediate policy pivot toward normalised relations with Russia, the party secured a decisive share of the electorate. The outcome poses a severe challenge to federal coalition governance in Berlin, signalling deep voter dissatisfaction with current energy costs & systemic economic stagnation across eastern German regions. Mainstream political factions face complex coalition negotiations to establish a stable state administration while attempting to isolate the AfD from executive power. The electoral result highlights expanding ideological polarisation within Europe's largest economy & complicates future federal consensus on external diplomatic strategies.
• UK Chancellor speaking today. The UK’s new Chancellor of the Exchequer, John Healey, will deliver a key address today setting out the government’s fiscal framework ahead of the upcoming autumn budget. The speech will provide the economic strategies & structural policies championed by Andy Burnham. Healey is forecast to be upbeat regarding the UK economy & is set to emphasize a commitment to disciplined fiscal management alongside targeted public investment aimed at stimulating regional industrial growth. Financial markets will scrutinise the details for signals regarding potential taxation adjustments, public borrowing targets & infrastructure allocation ahead of the formal fiscal statement next month. The Chancellor will reiterate that economic stability remains the primary mandate, seeking to reassure the gilt markets.
• Tokyo semiconductor investment. Japan's ministry of economy, trade & industry finalised an expanded capital support package dedicated to domestic advanced semiconductor manufacturing facilities. The fiscal measure aims to fortify tech supply chains & lessen national dependency on external production hubs amid shifting global trade dynamics. The capital allocation will directly fund cutting-edge fabrication plants, joint research ventures with international tech firms & localised material production networks across strategic industrial zones. Industry leaders welcomed the announcement, emphasising that sovereign support is paramount to retaining competitive advantages in next-generation computing hardware, AI processors & automotive microelectronics.
• Middle East trade talks. Senior trade ministers from member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council convened yesterday, & again today, in Riyadh to advance bilateral economic integration agreements & streamline cross-border regulatory frameworks. Conversations centred on expanding non-oil revenue streams, accelerating digital infrastructure connectivity & lowering tariff barriers for intra-regional commerce. Delegates discussed coordinated policies to attract foreign direct investment into renewable energy infrastructure, advanced logistics hubs & financial tech platforms. The summit underscores collective efforts among regional economies to diversify revenue bases away from hydrocarbon volatility & build resilient economic structures.

Markets

• US Equity markets closed lower on Friday as investor caution prevailed across all the major bourses. The Dow declined by 272 points or -0.51% to finish at 53,414, whilst the S&P dropped 29 points or -0.38% to end at 7,719. Tech shares also faced moderate selling pressure, pushing the Nasdaq down by 77 points or -0.29% to close at 26,507.
• Asian Equity bourses present a mixed picture this morning, characterised by sharp divergence across regional markets. The Nikkei is posting strong gains, advancing 1,243 points or 1.91% to trade at 66,264, whilst the Kospi surged dramatically, up 280 points or 4.19% to stand at 6,967 on robust demand for semiconductor & export-heavy equities. Conversely, sentiment in Hong Kong remained subdued, with the Hang Seng down 265 points or -1.04% to trade at 25,385 amidst ongoing concern regarding local growth metrics.
• European & UK Equity futures are pointed toward a slightly softer open today. Futures for the FTSE are tracking down -0.06%, whilst the Dax futures indicate a loss of -0.19% & the CAC 40 futures also lower by -0.10%. Market participants appear cautious ahead of upcoming macro-economic data releases, reflecting subdued risk appetite across European capital markets.
• UK & Eurozone Bond Markets. Gilt & Bund markets enter today’s trading session with an emphasis on fiscal policy commentary & macroeconomic resilience. Yields remain elevated, with the benchmark 10yr Bund trading at 3.338% & the 10yr Gilt sitting at 5.13%, reflecting lingering sovereign supply pressures & restrictive central bank policy expectations. Traders in UK debt markets are actively parsing incoming rhetoric from the UK Chancellor today for guidance on debt issuance trajectories ahead of next month's budget. Meanwhile, Eurozone sovereign debt sentiment continues to weigh the impact of regional political developments & structural growth challenges against the ECB monetary policy outlook.
• Currency Snapshot: 
  • Sterling trades at 1.3512 against the US dollar, maintaining a relatively stable footing as market participants assess domestic fiscal policy signals & BofE rate expectations amidst persistent inflation dynamics.
  • Euro sits at 1.1611 against the US dollar & 0.85935 against Sterling, remaining under mild pressure due to divergent growth prospects across the Eurozone & heightened regional political uncertainty following recent German election outcomes.
  • Swiss Franc trades at 0.8105 against the US dollar & 0.94115 against the Euro, continuing to draw consistent underlying demand as a primary safe-haven asset amidst global geopolitical tensions & ongoing market volatility.

Economic Data (Western European Today)

Govt Bond Auctions (Western European Today)

• There are no UK or European bond auctions today.

Holidays

• Labor Day holiday in the US today. There are no public or national holidays scheduled across the UK, & the Eurozone this week. The next major public holiday in the UK will now be Christmas, , while in Europe it will be all Saints Day on the 1st of November).

Pending Deals & Mandates 

Euro (€)

• 4th September: Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation (exp. Issue ratings of BBB- /BBB- by S&P & Fitch), one of the world's leading providers of poultry, retail-ready, & prepared foods, including well-recognised brands & value-added premium products, has mandated BBVA, BMO Capital Markets, Citigroup, ING, Mizuho, Rabobank, RBC Capital Markets & TD Securities as Active Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of in-person & virtual fixed income meetings commencing on Monday, 7th September & Tuesday, 8th September. ING will be coordinating logistics. A Reg S/144A €500m (wng), Long 7-year senior unsecured bond offering due 2034 issued by co-issuers Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation & Pilgrim’s Europe Finance plc may follow, subject to market conditions. The net proceeds are intended to be used for general corporate purposes, including to fund the consideration in connection with the recently announced acquisition of Walkers Deli & Sausage Company & to pay related costs & expenses.

• 25th August: Shinhan Bank (exp. Issue ratings of Aaa / AAA by Moody’s & Fitch) mandated BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Crédit Agricole CIB, Natixis, Societe Generale & Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Bookrunners & Joint Lead Managers to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings & calls commencing on 31 August 2026. A € denominated 3 to 5yr Reg S Green Mortgage Covered Bond transaction backed by Korean residential mortgages may follow as early as the week of September 7, subject to market conditions. Details post roadshow sharpened to a potential 3.5yr trade.

• 2nd September: Bpifrance (rated Aa3 / A+ by Moody's & Fitch), the French Agency entrusted with the permanent mission of promoting the financing & development of companies operating in France, & in particular of SMEs, has mandated BofA Securities, HSBC, La Banque Postale, Morgan Stanley & Nomura to arrange a series of fixed-income investors call starting 3 September. A new Long 4yr Social Bond € benchmark RegS, Bearer transaction maturing on 25 March 2031 will follow under Bpifrance's Social Financing Framework, Reg S Bearer Dematerialised, subject to market conditions. Guarantee: Irrevocable, first demand, unconditional & autonomous guarantee from EPIC Bpifrance. The deal is expected from the 7th of September, subject to market conditions.

Sterling (£)

• 21st August: United Kingdom (Aa3 / AA / AA- by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch), mandated BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs International Bank, JPMorgan, Santander & UBS Investment Bank to lead manage the syndicated re-opening of the 5.375% Treasury Gilt 2056. The transaction is currently planned to take place in the week commencing 7th September 2026, subject to demand & market conditions.

Recent Supply

Key Market Data