• Yesterday was busy, though arguably slightly less than anticipated, with a healthy pipeline evident heading into today.
• € IG priced €9.6bn from 11 deals (2 x Corp, 8 x FIG & 1 x SSA), via 13 tranches.
• Sterling (£) priced £250m, from 1 deal (1 x SSA) via 1 tranche.
• Both Swiss Francs & the US$ Reg S market had no supply.
• Based on CreditFlows weekly supply survey we have €31.3bn of € IG supply still to price this week, with today & Wednesday expected to be busy ahead of the ECB’s rate decision on Thursday at 1:15pm BST (25bp hike broadly expected).
• Brent Crude edges ever closer to $100pb, last closing above that milestone on the 18th of August. Currently trading at c.$97.96; (this time yesterday c.$97.65).
• The VIX has risen slightly, currently trading at 15.3; up from this yesterday (14.53).
• iTraxx Europe & iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices have all nudged higher from this point yesterday, sitting at 51.4 (+0.2%), 53.627 (+0.06%) & 86.497 (+.007%) respectively.
• Pipeline: The European IG pipeline currently has 11 trades tabled for this week in both €’s & Sterling.
  • 3 x € Corp (inc. 5-tranche from Uber as early as Wednesday)
  • 4 x € FIG (2 x covered & 1 x Social)
  • 3 x € SSA (1 x Social & 1 Green)
  • 1 x £ SSA (Gilt - Tap)

Key € IG Supply Stats from yesterday

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €1.25bn
  • Avg. tranche size €625m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -41.88
  • Avg. cover X 3.43
• FIG
  • Total IG: €7.1bn
  • Avg. tranche size €710m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -5.71 (covered)
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -26.7 (unsecured)
  • Avg. cover X 1.93
• SSA
  • Total IG: €1.25bn
  • Avg. tranche size €1.25bn
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -5
  • Avg. cover X 2.41

Geo-Political News

• Brent moves closer to $100 per barrel as market participants processed declarations from Iran indicating an imminent bilateral agreement with Oman regarding transit management through the Strait of Hormuz. Financial markets view this potential accord as a structural elevation of Iranian strategic leverage over the vital shipping lane, threatening to compound geopolitical friction with the US. Energy traders assess that formal Iranian operational oversight in the waterway could trigger broader naval risks, severely disrupting the logistics of oil & LNG. Markets are waiting to see how the US responds to any such announcements from Tehran. Naturally, fears of global inflationary pressures persist.
• Canada introduces reciprocal tariffs on US goods. Canadian retaliatory trade tariffs (up to 50% on select goods), come into force today to counter recently imposed US trade levies. In response to this cross-border escalation, Trump threatened a complete prohibition on US commercial operations for Canadian aerospace manufacturer Bombardier. Trump asserted that aircraft manufacturers must establish production facilities within US borders if they intend to access the US market. This ‘tit-for-tat’ dynamic underscores a sharp deterioration between the two neighbouring countries & long-time allies, threatening critical supply chains across high-tech manufacturing, defence, & transportation sectors while raising immediate concerns for commercial aviation manufacturers.
• Russian air offensives continue against Ukraine. Moscow resumed intensive long-range missile & drone strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure assets after a brief 3-day operational pause. Ukrainian defensive command systems engaged multiple aerial attacks over energy generation sites & logistics networks. Strategic analysts note that both sides continue targeting energy supply infrastructures to degrade operational capacity ahead of winter. Meanwhile, diplomatic channels remain highly constrained as international mediation attention shifts towards other global developments, leaving front-line military engagements across the eastern defence perimeter in an ongoing, high-intensity stalemate.
• German diplomatic expulsion row with Russia. Russian diplomatic authorities ordered the closure of the German consulate in St Petersburg, citing accusations regarding alleged Western intelligence support linked to recent drone incidents near Leipzig airport. Diplomatic friction between Berlin & Moscow reached its most critical juncture in years, with reciprocal staff reductions & severe cutbacks in consular services. The strategic fallout further complicates European security architecture & curtails civil communication channels between Western Europe & Moscow, reinforcing a systemic deep freeze in bilateral political relations.
• Heavy Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. Israeli aerial bombardments struck multiple targets in southern Lebanon, resulting in at least 12 fatalities & causing severe damage. Lebanese political authorities publicly claimed that the intensified military strikes were engineered to dismantle fragile US-backed ceasefire proposals aimed at stabilizing border zones. The escalation exacerbates humanitarian friction across regional civilian sectors while raising serious doubts among Western peace envoys about the viability of establishing enduring diplomatic security arrangements.
• Iranian self-imposed austerity measures amidst conflict. Iranian administrative authorities implemented a doubling of domestic fuel prices for high-volume consumers to alleviate mounting macroeconomic pressure. Official statements referenced ongoing geopolitical strains & economic restrictions without directly citing military engagements against the US. Government officials indicated that collected revenues from the tariff adjustments will be redirected into household relief payments to stabilise internal consumption. This structural reform highlights severe fiscal constraints on state balance sheets amidst elevated global energy volatility & ongoing trade disruptions.
• South Asian diplomatic summit. Iranian diplomatic representatives confirmed upcoming high-level bilateral engagements in New Delhi (12^th & 13^th of Sept) ahead of the BRICS summit, emphasising historical bilateral ties with India. Discussions are scheduled to centre on cross-border trade mechanisms, energy security pathways, & regional transport infrastructure development bypassing Western financial networks. The summit highlights efforts by emerging market economies to fortify non-Western financial architecture & strategic economic alliances amidst mounting global geopolitical volatility & trade restrictions.

Markets

• US Equity markets were closed yesterday for Labor Day.
• Asian Equity bourses present a mixed picture this morning, with regional index movements reflecting localised investor sentiment & global economic trade concerns. The Nikkei is higher by 83 points or 0.12% to reach 66,483, demonstrating modest resilience supported by selective export-oriented buying. Conversely, the Hang Seng trades in negative territory, down 68 points or -0.27% at 25,346 amidst persistent caution surrounding regional growth & regulatory headwinds. Demonstrating strong regional outperformance, the Kospi is currently up by 112 points or 1.61% to stand at 7,108, buoyed by robust demand across domestic semiconductor & hardware market participants.
• European & UK Equity bourses point toward a subdued, range-bound market open based on current futures pricing. FTSE Futures indicate a flat market start at 0.00%, reflecting investor hesitation amidst elevated gilt yields & regional economic growth considerations. European bourses display marginal positive bias, with Dax Futures rising slightly by 0.06% & CAC 40 Futures gaining 0.31%. Market participants remain focused on underlying inflationary inputs, global energy market volatility, & incoming trade policy developments prior to the opening bell.
• UK & Eurozone Bond Markets enter today’s session facing sustained upward yield pressure, with the benchmark 10yr Gilt yielding 5.174% & the 10yr Bund standing at 3.385%. Market sentiment across European fixed income is largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding global crude transit routes, which threaten to reignite cost-push inflationary pressures & complicate future monetary easing paths for both the ECB & the BofE. Investors are pricing in persistent rate premia, as fiscal supply expansion concerns & energy price volatility weigh heavily on sovereign debt valuations ahead of upcoming economic data releases.
• Currency Snapshot: 
  • Sterling trades at 1.354 against the US$ & 0.8586 against the Euro, with market sentiment anchored by elevated 10yr Gilt yields & ongoing reassessments of BofE policy trajectories amidst global inflation risks.
  • Euro stands at 1.1625 against the US$, 0.8586 relative to Sterling, & 0.94079 vis-a-vis the Swiss Franc, reflecting balanced trading flows as market participants weigh modest European equity futures gains against elevated regional sovereign bond yields.
  • Swiss Franc trades at 0.8093 against the US$ & 0.94079 against the Euro, maintaining its structural safe-haven appeal as persistent Middle Eastern supply tensions & global trade friction sustain demand for capital preservation assets.

Economic Data (Western European Today)

Govt Bond Auctions (Western European Today)

Holidays

• There are no public or national holidays scheduled across the UK, & the Eurozone for the remainder of this week. The next major public holidays are:
  • Germany - 3rd October (German Unity Day)
  • USA - 12th October (Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples' Day).
  • Spain - 12th October (National Day of Spain)
  • Eurozone - 1st November (All Saints Day)

Pending Deals & Mandates 

Euro (€)

• 4th September: Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation (exp. Issue ratings of BBB- /BBB- by S&P & Fitch), one of the world's leading providers of poultry, retail-ready, & prepared foods, including well-recognised brands & value-added premium products, has mandated BBVA, BMO Capital Markets, Citigroup, ING, Mizuho, Rabobank, RBC Capital Markets & TD Securities as Active Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of in-person & virtual fixed income meetings commencing on Monday, 7th September & Tuesday, 8th September. ING will be coordinating logistics. A Reg S/144A €500m (wng), Long 7-year senior unsecured bond offering due 2034 issued by co-issuers Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation & Pilgrim’s Europe Finance plc may follow, subject to market conditions. The net proceeds are intended to be used for general corporate purposes, including to fund the consideration in connection with the recently announced acquisition of Walkers Deli & Sausage Company & to pay related costs & expenses.
• 7th September: Uber Technologies, Inc.  (rated Baa1 / BBB+ / A- by Moody’s, S&P, & Fitch), mandated Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, & Morgan Stanley as Joint Book-Running Managers to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls on Monday, September 7th & Tuesday 8th. An SEC registered, senior unsecured, € benchmark offering of 3yr, 6yr, 8yr, 12yr & 20yr fixed rate notes is expected to follow, subject to market conditions.
• 7th September: Loomis AB  (rated BBB by S&P) a leading payments, cash handling service provider & secure logistics company, mandated Nordea & Société Générale as Active Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls on Monday 7th September. Société Générale is coordinating logistics. A 5yr €300m (exp), senior unsecured, fixed rate, Reg S notes offering is expected to follow, subject to market conditions.

• 7th September: Royal Bank of Canada (exp. Issue ratings of Aaaa / AAA / AAA by Moody’s, Fitch & DBRS) mandated BBVA, Commerzbank, DZ Bank, ING, LBBW, Natixis, Nordea, RBC Capital Markets (B&D), Santander, Société Générale Corporate & Investment Banking, & UniCredit as Joint Lead Managers for its upcoming € dual-tranche benchmark RegS registered fixed-rate Covered Bond offering, with expected maturities of 5yr & 10yr. The deal is expected to be launched as soon as Tuesday, 8th September, subject to market conditions.
• 7th September: Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Girozentrale (Helaba) (exp. Issue rating of Aaa by Moody’s)  mandated Erste Group, Helaba, Lloyds, Scotiabank, Societe Generale & UniCredit as Joint Lead Managers for its upcoming 5yr € benchmark, Public Sector Pfandbrief transaction. The issue will be launched under the label European Covered Bond (Premium). The RegS Bearer transaction is expected to be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.
• 7th September: Bayerische Landesbodenkreditanstalt (exp. Issue rating of Aaa by Moody’s), the development bank of the Free State of Bavaria, has mandated BayernLB, Helaba, NordLB, TD Securities & UniCredit to lead manage a 10yr €500m (wng) senior unsecured, RegS Bearer Social Bond transaction (0% risk weighted, LCR Level 1). The issue carries the explicit guarantee of the Free State of Bavaria (Aaa Moody`s / AAA S&P). The deal will be launched & priced in the near future, subject to market conditions.
• 7th September: Euroclear Holding SA/NV (exp. Issue ratings of AA- / AA- by S&P & Fitch), mandated JP Morgan as Sole Global Coordinator & Sole Structuring Agent to the Issuer & Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, MUFG, SMBC & Societe Generale as Joint Lead Managers to arrange a series of fixed income calls commencing on Monday, September 7. A new RegS only €600m (wng) 10yr Fixed Rate Senior Unsecured transaction will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.

• 7th September: NWB Bank (rated AAA / Aaa by S&P & Moody’s), mandated Danske Bank, Deutsche Bank, LBBW & UBS to joint lead manage its upcoming € benchmark, Social 5yr transaction. The proceeds of the Notes will be utilised for lending to Social Housing Organizations in the Netherlands according to the Issuer’s Social Bond Framework. The transaction will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.
• 7th September: The Kingdom of Spain (rated A3 / A+ / A / A3 / AH / A by Moody’s, S&P, Fitch, DBRS & Scope), mandated Barclays, BBVA, Credit Agricole CIB, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley & Santander (DM/B&D) for a new Green Obligacion del Estado syndicated 20yr, €4bn (wng) benchmark maturing on 30th July 2047. The transaction will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions.
• 7th September: The Asian Development Bank (ADB), (rated Aaa / AAA / AAA by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch), mandated BNP Paribas, HSBC, Morgan Stanley & Nomura to lead manage a new long 7yr, fixed rate, € benchmark, due 17th January 2034. The transaction is expected to be launched & priced in the near future subject to market conditions.

Sterling (£)

• 21st August: United Kingdom (Aa3 / AA / AA- by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch), mandated BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs International Bank, JPMorgan, Santander & UBS Investment Bank to lead manage the syndicated re-opening of the 5.375% Treasury Gilt 2056. The transaction is currently planned to take place in the week commencing 7th September 2026, subject to demand & market conditions.

Recent Supply

Key Market Data