• As expected we had a zero print day today, with no primary activity in the € IG, £, Chf & US$ Reg S markets.
• Today represents the 39th zero-print day in € IG YTD, & the 20th if we exclude Friday’s. It is also the 1st non-Friday zero in exactly a month.
  • Of the 5 prior ECB days YTD, 3 others yielded no deals.
• The ECB delivered the 25bp hike that the market had been expecting, with ECB President, Christine Lagarde naturally referencing inflationary pressures from the conflict in the Middle East, & the likelihood that this will keep inflation above the 2.0% target rate. While she highlighted that the broader economic growth in Europe faces uncertainties, with more downside risk than upside; she deliberately stayed clear of defining the trajectory of rates moving forward. Decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
• Today’s “Talking Point” (below) takes a look at historical Friday activity (c.last 6yrs) in € IG primary, the day after an ECB announcement.
• iTraxx Europe & the iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices are all wider today by +1.42%, +1.25% & +1.48% respectively (as we print).
• Brent crude began the day relatively steady but has surged in recent hours nearly hitting $106; currently trading at c.$104.76 (c.$100.6 this morning). The spike followed Saudi Arabia reporting to OPEC that it has markedly reduced its daily output by 1.9m barrels, the lowest levels seen since the Gulf War in 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait.
• With this backdrop, European equity bourses are once again firmly in the red, with the FTSE, Dax & CAC 40 all lower by -0.57%, -0.64% & -0.41% respectively.
• A breakdown of today’s primary € supply is as follows.
  • Corporate
    • Total IG: €0
    • Avg. tranche size €0
    • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA
    • Avg. cover NA
  • FIG
    • Total IG: €0n
    • Avg. tranche size €0
    • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA (covered) - €0
    • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA (unsecured) - €0
    • Avg. cover NA
  • SSA
    • Total IG: €0
    • Avg. tranche size €0
    • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA
    • Avg. cover NA

• Pipeline: The European IG pipeline is empty.

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Talking Point

• The table below sets out € IG issuance volumes on the day following each ECB meeting from 2021 to YTD, across Corp, FIG & SSA. In the last near 6 years we have had 45 ECB rate announcements, with only 8 seeing any issuance the day after (17.78%), underscoring how rarely issuers choose to move in the aftermath of a policy decision - regardless of the outcome.
• For clarity, the ECB always announces on a Thursday, so the day after is always a Friday, a traditionally quieter day in the primary markets.
• On the rare occasion there is activity, FIG dominates (€5.25bn / 58%) with activity on 5 out of the 45 days under review.
• Interestings, over the last c.6 years we have not seen a single active Friday post ECB in the second half of the year, with January & February the most active months.
• 2022 is the only year that had zero post-ECB issuance. The absence of activity is a reflection of the rate shock environment & the unpredictability of the ECB hiking through 2022.

Euro IG (today)

• None

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Sterling IG (today)

• None

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Swiss Franc IG (today)

• None

Week-to-date volumes:

US$ Reg S (today)

• None

Pending Deals & Mandates

• None

• To view the LIVE / REAL TIME European IG pipeline please click here.
• Details correct at time of posting