• The week started in an anxious mood yesterday with geo-political uncertainty on many fronts adding sustained pressure to the price of oil. Borrowers & syndicate desks were both cautious & deliberate with select offerings heavily skewed to financials. Conspicuous by their absence were SSA borrowers.
• In € IG the market still managed to yield €6.45bn in supply from 7 deals (1 x Corp & 6 x FIG) via 10 tranches, though less than the market had been expecting.
• Sterling (£) produced £750m from only 1 deal (1 x SSA) via 1 tranche. 
• There were no deals yesterday in the Chf & US$ Reg S markets.
• Focus remains on Central Bank policies this week, with the Fed on Wednesday (consensus +25bps), & the Bank of England on Thursday (consensus Hold).
• We start today with a healthy pipeline which built slowly yesterday with several announced late in the session.
• Brent Crude has oscillated between $104.86 & $109.75 these last 24 hours & is currently trading at c.$107.56 (versus c.$108.5 this time yesterday).
• The VIX remains elevated at 17.1 (versus 15.84 this time yesterday).
• iTraxx Europe & iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices go into the open at 54.258 (+2.33%), 56.53 (+2.27%) & 90.963 (+2.33%) respectively.
• Pipeline: The European IG pipeline has 10 € trades currently.
  • 3 x € Corp
  • 4 x € FIG (1 x dual-tranche & 1 x Covered)
  • 3 x € SSA (1 x EuGB - investor calls conclude 17th)

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Key € IG Supply Stats for yesterday

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €500m
  • Avg. tranche size €500m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -25
  • Avg. cover X 2.7
• FIG
  • Total IG: €5.95bn
  • Avg. tranche size €661m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -4.5 (covered) - €1.15bn
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -25.5 (unsecured) - €4.8bn
  • Avg. cover X 2.0
• SSA
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA
  • Avg. cover NA

Geo-Political News

• President Trump claims Iran is seeking a peace deal. Trump stated that Iran’s leadership wants to reach an agreement with Washington “quickly & badly”, while asserting that he will personally decide whether the US engages in negotiations with Tehran. The statement comes against a backdrop of ongoing military exchanges & a firm stance from Washington regarding Iranian nuclear ambitions. Diplomatic channels remain fragmented, yet markets are closely monitoring whether any formal dialogue could materialise to de-escalate tension. US officials maintain that preventing nuclear escalation remains an unalterable priority regardless of timeline or diplomatic format. Observers note that Tehran has sent mixed signals regarding its willingness to meet US terms under severe economic sanctions. 
• NATO fighter jets intercept drone over Lithuania. Lithuanian air defence systems alerted NATO assets after an unidentified unmanned aerial vehicle breached national airspace from Belarus. Italian fighter jets operating under the Baltic Air Policing mission responded swiftly & destroyed the drone before it reached sensitive power infrastructure. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda commended the rapid Allied response, linking the incident to escalating regional friction & calling for reinforced air defences along eastern NATO borders. Authorities confirmed the projectile was heading west towards Trakai District before being intercepted. Spillover risks from neighbouring conflicts continue to keep Eastern European defence forces on maximum readiness.  
• US 10yr Treasury yields breach 5.0% threshold. 10yr USTs are trading above 5.017% as fixed income markets adjusted to persistent fiscal expansion & a total absence of structural budget deficit management. Investors are increasingly demanding higher term premia to absorb heavy sovereign issuance without matching fiscal consolidation plans from Washington. Sentiment is heavily influenced by expectations of a hawkish response from the Fed this week, with market participants fully pricing in a 25bp rate hike to counter persistent inflationary pressures. The sharp repricing in sovereign debt markets is exerting upward pressure on borrowing costs globally while challenging risk asset valuations across global trading desks.
• Red Sea maritime disruptions intensify. Iranian-backed Houthi forces claimed control over two strategic islands in the Red Sea, compounding supply chain vulnerabilities along the vital shipping lane. The escalation coincides with ongoing repairs to key Middle Eastern oil pipeline infrastructure following recent targeted strikes. Global shipping firms continue to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, sustaining elevated freight rates & insurance surcharges across international trade channels. Maritime security agencies report persistent threats from uncrewed surface vessels & anti-ship missiles, hampering efforts to restore normal commercial transit through the Bab el-Mandeb strait.  
• Finland signs nuclear deterrence pact with France. Helsinki has formally joined a French-led European military cooperation framework, expanding its defence posture through alignment with Paris’s nuclear deterrence capabilities. The bilateral agreement reflects ongoing efforts by Nordic nations to diversify security guarantees amid evolving regional dynamics & geopolitical uncertainties. Officials in Helsinki emphasised that the initiative complements existing alliance commitments while enhancing collective defence integration across Western Europe. The agreement makes Finland the 10^th European state to participate in the strategic initiative, marking another significant shift in Northern European security architecture. 
• UN agencies warn of imminent Sudan aid network collapse. UN humanitarian organisations cautioned that emergency relief networks across Sudan face complete operational exhaustion without immediate capital injections. Severe logistical blockades, damaged infrastructure & funding shortfalls have left millions without access to basic medical supplies or food distribution hubs. Agency directors warned that remaining stockpiles will be fully depleted before the end of the month, threatening catastrophic consequences for displaced populations. International aid coordinators are urging donor nations to release previously pledged funds to prevent an absolute shutdown of life-saving field operations.  
• Syrian military logistics resupplied via Russian naval transit. Russian naval transport vessels completed a major resupply operation to military installations along the Syrian coast under an updated bilateral logistics arrangement. The shipments mark the first coordinated supply run of this scale in recent months, reinforcing strategic positions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Regional analysts view the deployment as a clear signal of Moscow’s intent to maintain a permanent operational footprint in the area despite ongoing military commitments elsewhere. Maritime tracking data indicated heightened naval escort activity throughout the Mediterranean transit corridor during the operation.

Markets

• US Equity markets closed lower yesterday, driven down by rising Treasury yields & hawkish monetary expectations. Sentiment was cautious across all bourses as investors digested fiscal deficit concerns ahead of key central bank rate decisions. The Dow fell -152 points (-0.29%) to 52,421, while the S&P dropped -37 points (-0.48%) to 7,619. Tech shares faced the heaviest selling pressure, pulling the Nasdaq down -147 points (-0.56%) to end at 26,186.
• Asian Equity bourses display a muted tone today, tracking the negative lead from Wall Street amid elevated global bond yields. Market sentiment remains constrained across the region, with investors adopting a defensive stance ahead of key central bank policy announcements from the Fed & the BofE. The Nikkei is down 133 points (-0.21%) to 63,360, while the Hang Seng is lower by 58 points (-0.23%) to 24,859. Elsewhere in the region, the Kospi is leading losses falling 49 points (-0.73%) to stand at 6,635.
• European & UK Equity bourses are pointed towards a softer open today, with index futures signalling early pressure following losses in the US & Asia. Investors remain focused on elevated sovereign bond yields & tightening financial conditions across major economies. Futures are indicating negative open momentum, with FTSE Futures down -0.26%, the Dax slipping -0.05%, & the CAC 40 declining -0.75%.
• UK & Eurozone Bond Markets face mounting upward yield pressure today, driven by the sharp repricing in USTs. Sovereign debt markets are anchoring at elevated levels ahead of impending central bank meetings, with investors demanding higher risk premia across European paper. The 10yr Gilt yield stands at 5.362%, reflecting persistent fiscal concerns & expectations of sustained hawkish policy from BofE. Meanwhile, the 10yr Bund yield trades at 3.516% as Eurozone debt tracks global rate trajectory amid persistent inflation worries & fiscal supply digestions.
• Currency Snapshot: 
  • Sterling trades at 1.348 against the US Dollar, anchored by elevated UK Gilt yields & firm expectations that BofE will maintain a restrictive monetary stance to curb sticky inflation. Upward momentum remains capped by broader US Dollar resilience as global bond markets reprice interest rate trajectories.
  • Euro trades at 1.154 against the US Dollar & 0.856 against Sterling. The single currency faces headwinds from sluggish Eurozone growth fundamentals relative to the US, while ECB policy expectations remain constrained by divergent economic performance across member states.
  • Swiss Franc trades at 0.818 against the US Dollar & 0.944 against the Euro. Safe-haven demand continues to provide underlying support for the currency amid heightened geopolitical tensions & elevated sovereign bond volatility across global capital markets.

Economic Data (Western European Today)

Govt Bond Auctions (Western European Today)

Holidays

• There are no public or national holidays scheduled across the UK, & the Eurozone this week. The next major public holidays are:
  • Germany - 3rd October (German Unity Day)
  • USA - 12th October (Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples' Day).
  • Spain - 12th October (National Day of Spain)
  • Eurozone - 1st November (All Saints Day)

Pending Deals & Mandates

Euro (€)

• 14th September: Saab AB (rated BBB+ by S&P), a Swedish defence & security company supplying products, services & systems to customers worldwide, has mandated Citigroup, Crédit Agricole CIB, Deutsche Bank, & SEB as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls on Monday, September 14th & Tuesday, September 15th. Deutsche Bank is coordinating logistics. An inaugural €300m (wng), senior unsecured, Reg S Bearer, 7yr is expected to follow, subject to market conditions.
• 14th September: Hella GmbH & Co KGaA (exp. Issue ratings of Ba1 / BBB- by Moody’s & Fitch), a leading developer & manufacturer of lighting, electronic components & systems, has mandated Deutsche Bank, Helaba, LBBW & UniCredit as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls on the 14th & 15th September. Helaba is coordinating logistics. A €300m (wng), 4yr, Senior Unsecured, Reg S bearer bond may follow, subject to market conditions.
• 14th September: Tornator Oyj (exp. Issue rating of Baa3 by Moody’s), a leading European forestry company specialized in sustainable forestry, mandated Danske Bank, OP Corporate Bank & SEB as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings, commencing 15 September. Danske Bank is coordinating logistics. An expected €300m, Long 6yr, fixed-rate, senior secured RegS Green transaction will follow, subject to market conditions.

• 14th September: American International Group, Inc. (rated Baa1 / A- / A- by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch) mandated Deutsche Bank, J.P. Morgan, BNP Paribas & Citigroup to arrange a series of fixed-income investor calls Monday, September 14th. An SEC registered 5yr & 10yr € denominated, senior unsecured notes offering may follow, subject to market conditions. J.P. Morgan is coordinating roadshow logistics.
• 14th September: Landesbank Saar (exp. Issue rating of AA- by Fitch), mandated DekaBank, DZ Bank, Erste Group, Helaba, & NordLB as Joint Lead Managers for its forthcoming 5yr €500m (wng), Senior Preferred transaction. A series of investor conference calls (German/ English) will be held starting Monday, 14th September. Erste Group will be coordinating logistics. The transaction will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.
• 14th September: AXA Logistics Europe Master S.C.A.(rated BBB+ by Fitch), a pan-European, open-ended, logistics real estate investment fund managed by BNP Paribas Real Estate Investment Management France, has mandated Morgan Stanley as Global Co-ordinator & Active Bookrunner, along with BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole CIB & Natixis as Active Bookrunners, to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls on Monday 14th September. A €300m (wng) 6yr, fixed rate, senior unsecured Reg S Green bond offering may follow, subject to market conditions.
• 14th September: Natixis Pfandbriefbank AG (exp. Issue rating of Aaa by Moody’s) mandated Natixis, NordLB & Raiffeisen Bank International for a 3yr (24th Sept 2029), €250m (wng) Mortgage Pfandbrief. The Pfandbriefe issued under the issuer’s Debt Issuance Programme will be part of the European Covered Bond Premium Segment & will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.

• 11th September: The State of Baden-Wuerttemberg (rated Aaa / AA+ / AAA by Moodys, S&P & Scope) mandated Deutsche Bank & DZ Bank as Joint ESG Structuring Coordinators & BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole CIB, Deutsche Bank, DZ Bank, LBBW & Nordea as Joint Lead Managers for its upcoming inaugural €600m (wng), 10yr, European Green Bond ‘EuGB’ LSA format. The transaction will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions. The target market for the bonds are retail, professional & eligible counterparties, each as defined in MiFID II & UK MiFIR product governance (all channels for distribution of the Bonds are appropriate).
• 11th September: The European Union (rated Aaa / AA+ / AAA by Moody's, S&P & Scope) mandated Barclays, Citi, Credit Agricole CIB, DZ Bank & JP Morgan (DM/B&D) as Joint Lead Managers for its upcoming € benchmark, Fixed Rate RegS Bearer dual tranche transaction, comprising a 3.5yr benchmark due 12th of March 2030, & a new 30yr benchmark due 12th of October 2056. There will be a co-lead group comprised of Commerzbank, Intesa, LBBW, KBC & Piraeus. The transaction will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.
• 11th September: Free Hanseatic City of Bremen (rated AAA by Fitch), mandated BayernLB, DekaBank, DZ Bank JP Morgan & LBBW to lead manage its upcoming 7yr €500m (wng) floating rate Landesschatzanweisung. The transaction will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.

Recent Supply

Key Market Data