• Both Gilts & Bunds ended the day on a weak note, despite a brief recovery mid day, having sold-off across their respective curves in the morning.
• Early ‘risk-off’ sentiment hit primary supply.
• € IG priced only €1.5 today from just 2 deals (2 x SSA) via 2 tranches.
  • Week-to-date total only €12.15bn; just 48% of the forecasted €25.26bn.
• Sterling (£) yielded £250m from 1 deal (1 x Corp) via 1 tranche.
• No supply in either the Swiss Franc or US$ Reg S markets.
• Today’s “Talking Point” (below) looks at historical € IG supply in the 2nd week of October’s from 2023 to 2025, covering volumes, & sector mix.
• iTraxx Europe & the iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices were all wider at 64.480 (+4.17%), 72.606 (+4.58%) & 120.303 (+4.97%) respectively (as we print).
• Vix Index trading up, now at 17.21 (16.34 this morning).
• Brent Crude price trading up back through $100, currently at c.$101.10 (c.$97.23 this morning).
• European equity bourses were all lower with the FTSE, Dax & the CAC 40 down by -1.55%, -0.65% & -1.33% respectively.
• A breakdown of today’s primary € IG supply is as follows.

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA
  • Avg. cover NA
• FIG
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA (covered) - €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA (unsecured) - €0
  • Avg. cover NA
• SSA
  • Total IG: €1.5bn
  • Avg. tranche size €750m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -1
  • Avg. cover 1.33 X

• Pipeline:  The European IG pipeline. 
  • 1 x € Corp
  • 3 x € FIG (3 x Covered)

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Talking Point

• As we step into October with an initial ‘risk-off’ mood, we wanted to take a glance back at € IG issuance during the 2nd week of October, from 2023 to last year, covering historical volumes & sector mix; to see what that might signal for us next week.
• Volumes in this window have ranged widely, from €18bn to €29bn, averaging ~€25bn over the past 3ys. 2023's €18bn print stands out as the clear outlier to the downside, likely reflecting the rate volatility environment at the time, while the 2024 to 2025 corridor of €27bn to €29bn points to a more normalised range.
• SSA’s have consistently dominated this window, averaging c.54% of supply, with such borrowers using the period heavily, likely front-loading ahead of year-end funding constraints. 
• Corporate's share at this time has been climbing, from c.14% in 2023 & 2024 to 19% last year, equivalent to roughly €2.5bn rising to €5.2bn in absolute terms, signalling growing corporate issuer confidence in this window.
• FIG has been the most volatile sector in this window, swinging from 23.6% to 40.4% of supply. The 2023 spike to 40% was well above the c.27% average seen in 2024 & 2025, consistent with banks accelerating issuance ahead of year-end MREL/TLAC targets.
• For next week, the 3yr average of c.€25bn is the natural central anchor, with a plausible range of €24bn to €29bn depending on conditions - which are of course currently volatile. SSA may well lead with 50% to 60% of supply, & Corp might print €4bn to €6bn if the 2025 trend persists. Finally, FIG may settle in the 23% to 27% range, though the spread environment is widening & government yields are rapidly rising.

Euro IG (today)

• The Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein (rated AAA by Fitch), brought their anticipated € benchmark, fixed rate Landesschatzanweisung (LSA). Guidance on the trade was in the area of MS+20. Books were first called in excess of €960m (inc. €150m JLMs). Spread set at MS+19. Books closed in excess of €1.25bn (inc. €125m JLMs) & the deal launched & priced for €1bn at MS+19.
  • Schleswig-Holstein last priced a public € trade on the 21st of April, with a €1bn, 10yr at MS+25 (1bp tighter than guidance from a book of €1.8bn). The printed 3 public € trades in 2025 (2 x 10yr & 1 x 8yr).
• LfA Foerderbank Bayern (exp. Issue rating of Aaa / AAA by Moody's & Scope), guaranteed by the Free State of Bavaria, brought their anticipated 7yr €500m (wng), fixed rate, senior unsecured offering. Guidance on the issue was in the area of MS+18. Spread set at MS +17 when books were called above €640m (inc. €85m JLMs). The final book was above €700m (inc. €135m JLMs). The deal priced for €500m at MS+17. 
  • The borrower last came to market on the 5th of March this year with a €500m 5.5yr. The trade priced at MS+15 (2bps tighter than guidance from a book of €1.95bn). LfA is a state-owned promotional & development bank.

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Sterling IG (today)

• Bazalgette Finance plc (exp. Issue ratings of Baa1 / BBB+ by Moody’s & S&P), brought their expected £250m (wng), 10yr, senior secured Blue Bond. IPTs were in the area of Mid Gilts +135. Books were in excess of £770m & spread set at Gilts+120. Final books closed in excess of £875m & the trade priced for £250m at Gilts+120.
  • Bazalgette Finance plc is a SPV that raises debt to fund its sister company, Bazalgette Tunnel Limited, for the construction & maintenance of the Thames Tideway Tunnel. The "super sewer," is a massive 25km (15.5 mile) underground infrastructure project designed to prevent raw sewage from polluting the River Thames. Their last bond issue was in June 2025 when they priced a £250m 8yr senior secured trade at Gilts +120 (15bps tighter than IPTs from a book of £675m).

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Swiss Franc IG (today)

• No issues

Week-to-date volumes:

US$ Reg S (today)

• No issues

Pending Deals & Mandates

Euro (€)

• 29th September: AusNet Services Holdings Pty Limited (exp. Issue ratings of Baa1 / BBB+ by Moody’s & S&P), mandated Barclays, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs International & HSBC to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings commencing Wednesday the 30th September. A € benchmark 10.5yr, Reg S senior unsecured transaction may follow, subject to market conditions. AusNet is an Australian diversified energy infrastructure business that owns & operates the primary regulated Victorian electricity transmission network, as well as an electricity distribution network in eastern Victoria & a gas distribution network in western Victoria.

• 21st September: Evangelische Bank eG (exp. Issue rating of AAA by S&P), mandated Commerzbank, DZ Bank & NordLB as Joint Lead Managers for its upcoming €250m (wng) sub-benchmark inaugural Mortgage Covered Bond (Hypothekenpfandbrief) with a 5 to 7yr maturity. The deal is expected to be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.
• 21st September: Fairstone Bank of Canada (exp. Issue ratings of Aa1 / AA by Moody’s & DBRS), mandated RBC Capital Markets as Arranger & Sole Structuring Advisor, & BMO Capital Markets, DZ Bank, LBBW, Natixis & RBC Capital Markets as Joint Active Bookrunners for an inaugural 3yr € benchmark soft-bullet Covered Bond. The Covered Bonds are backed by Canadian residential mortgages. This is the borrower's debut covered bond.
• 30th September: Equitable Bank (exp. Issue rating of Aa1 / AA+ by Moody’s & Fitch), mandated Barclays, Commerzbank, DZ Bank AG, Erste Group, LBBW, Scotiabank & TD Securities as Joint Lead Managers to manage its forthcoming €500m (wng) Dec 2029, RegS registered Covered bond transaction. The issue will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.

• 01 October: The Federal State of Saxony-AnThahalt (rated Aa1 by Moody’s & Fitch), mandated BayernLB, CACIB, DZ Bank, ING, JP Morgan, NatWest & NordLB to lead manage its upcoming €500m (wng) inaugural Green, fixed rate Landesschatzanweisung with a medium term maturity. DZ Bank & NatWest are Joint Stability Coordinators The deal will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions.

Transaction Details

PRICED: Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein €1bn 8yr Sr Unsec; MS+19bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - SSA

Reoffer: 8yr: MS+19bp / 99.654 / 3.801%
Benchmark: 8yr: DBR 2.6% 15-Aug-34 @ 94.14 / B+33.7bp / HR 104%

8yr: Final Books in excess of €1.25bn (incl. €125m JLM interest)

Launched: 8yr: €1bn @ MS+19bp - Books closed in excess of €1.25bn (incl. €125m JLM interest)
Spread set at: 8yr: MS+19bp - Books in excess of €960m (incl. €150m JLM interest)
Guidance: 8yr: MS+20a

• Issuer: Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein
• Ticker: SCHHOL
• Format: Landesschatzanweisung (0% rw, senior unsecured)
• Type: Reg S, Bearer
• Exp. Rating: AAA (Fitch, stable)
• Issue Size: €1bn
• Maturity: 09-Oct-34 (8y)
• Settlement: 09-Oct-26 (T+6)
• Coupon: 3.750% Fixed, Annual, Act/Act ICMA
• Reoffer: 99.654 / MS+19bp / 3.801%
• Benchmark: DBR 2.6% 15-Aug-34 @ 94.14 / B+33.7bp / HR 104%
• Law/Listing/Denoms: German/Hamburg/€1k+€1k
• Bookrunners: CACIB, Deutsche Bank, DZ BANK (B&D), J.P. Morgan and NORD/LB
• Fees: The banks will be paid a fee in relation to this transaction
• Target Market: The manufacturer target market (MiFID II/UK MiFIR product governance) for the bonds is retail, professional and eligible counterparties (all channels for distribution of the bonds are appropriate).
• ISIN/WKN: DE000SHFM1K6 / SHFM1K
• Timing: TOE: 12:02 UKT / 13:02 CET | FTT: 12:20 UKT / 13:20 CET

PRICED: LfA Foerderbank Bayern €500m 7yr Sr Unsec; MS+17bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - SSA

Reoffer: 7yr: MS+17bp / 99.879 / 3.77%
Benchmark: 7yr: DBR 2.6 15-Aug-33 @ 95.055% / B+35.0bp (HR 103.5%)

7yr: Final book above €700m (incl. €135m JLM interest)

Launched: 7yr: €500m @ MS+17bp - Books above €640m (incl. €85m JLM interest)
Guidance: 7yr: MS+18a

• Issuer: LfA Foerderbank Bayern (BAYLAN)
• Guarantor: Free State of Bavaria (AAA by S&P)
• Format: Senior Unsecured, 0% rw, ECB and PSPP eligible, LCR Level 1
• Expected Rating: Aaa by Moody's / AAA by Scope
• Size: €500m
• Coupon: 3.75%, annual, Act/Act ICMA
• Maturity: 07-Oct-33 (7y)
• Settlement: 07-Oct-26 (T+4)
• Reoffer: 99.879% / MS+17bp / 3.77%
• Benchmark: DBR 2.6 15-Aug-33, +35.0 bps @ spot 95.055% (HR 103.5%)
• Listing/Law/Denoms: Munich / German Law / €1k+1k
• Docs: Stand alone
• ISIN/WKN/Series: DE000LFA2576 / LFA257 / 1257
• Joint Leads: Commerzbank (B&D), DekaBank, DZ Bank and Helaba
• Target Market: Professional, retail and eligible counterparties each as defined in MiFID II (all channels for distribution of the Bonds are appropriate).
• Timing: Priced, TOE 13:24 CET / FTT 13:30 CET

PRICED: Bazalgette Finance plc £250m 10yr Snr Sec; G+120bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - General

Reoffer: 10yr: G+120bp / 99.395 / 6.710%
Benchmark: 10yr: UKT 4.875% 2036 @ 96.019 / HR 99%

10yr: Final Books in excess of £875m

Launched: 10yr: £250m @ G+120bp - Books in excess of £770m
IPTs: 10yr: G+135a

• Issuer: Bazalgette Finance plc
• Ticker: BAZFIN
• Issuer LEI: 213800ZGSE4AQTG77U19
• Underlying Obligors: Bazalgette Tunnel Limited, Bazalgette Holdings Limited
• Expected Issue Ratings: Baa1 / BBB+ (Moody's / Fitch)
• Format: Senior, Secured, Reg S, Registered, CGN
• Instrument: Blue Bond, aligned to ICMA principles
• Size: £250m
• Settlement: 08-Oct-26 (T+5)
• Maturity: 08-Oct-36 (10-year)
• Reoffer: Mid Gilts+ 120bps | 99.395 px | 6.601% s.a. | 6.710% ann.
• Benchmark: UKT 4.875% due 2036 @ 96.019 mid | 95.984 bid | HR 99%
• Coupon: 6.625% Fixed, Annual, ACT/ACT (ICMA)
• Target Market: Manufacturer target market (UK MiFIR product governance) is eligible counterparties and professional clients only (all distribution channels). No EU PRIIPs key information document (KID) and no UK disclosure document required by DISC have been prepared as the bonds are not available to retail in the EEA or in the UK
• Documentation: EMTN / £100k + £1k / London Stock Exchange Main Market / English Law
• Make-Whole: +20bps (15% of Re-Offer Spread)
• Selling Restrictions: US (Reg S Cat 2 TEFRA D) Other Selling Restrictions as per Multicurrency Programme
• Use of Proceeds: The net proceeds from the issue of the Blue Bonds will be on-lent to Bazalgette Tunnel Limited under the terms of the relevant IBLA by way of Advances
• Active Bookrunners: CIBC Capital Markets, Lloyds (B&D), RBC Capital Markets
• Timing: Priced. TOE 13.15 UKT | FTT 14.00 UKT
• Marketing: NetRoadshow presentation available at at www.netroadshow.com with entry code TIDEWAY26 or directly at www.netroadshow.com/nrs/home/#!/?show=d291c70e
• ISIN: XS3526056547
• Advertisement: The Multicurrency Programme is available at https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/4082W_1-2026-9-25.pdf. The Final Terms, when published, will be available at www.londonstockexchange.com

• To view the LIVE / REAL TIME European IG pipeline please click here.
• Details correct at time of posting