• ‘Risk off’ mood punctuated primary today.
• Bunds & OAT’s both rallied with Gilts selling off a fraction.
• Oil eased off its morning highs & credit indices too retraced their early widening.
• € IG delivered only €1.75bn from 2 deals (1 x Corp & 1 x FIG) & via 3 tranches.
• Sterling (£) yielded £250m from 1 deal (1 x SSA) via 1 tranche.
• Both Swiss Franc & US$ Reg S markets were quiet.
• Today’s “Talking Point” (below) looks at the € vs the US$ & £ from the beginning of last year through to today, covering the shape of the 2025 rally, the early 2026 peak, & the weakness over the past 5 weeks.
• iTraxx Europe & the iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices were mixed today at 64.307 (-0.47%), 71.5445 (-0.23%) & 119.355 (+0.14%) respectively (as we print).
• Vix Index traded wider, then tighter, now at 15.63 (15.31 this morning).
• Brent Crude eventually fell slightly, currently at c.$101.66 (c.$101.49 this morning).
• European equity bourses were all mixed with the FTSE & Dax both up by 0.30% & 0.17% respectively, while the CAC 40 was lower by -0.87%.
• A breakdown of today’s primary € IG supply is as follows.

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €1.5bn
  • Avg. tranche size €750m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -30
  • Avg. cover 3.57 X
• FIG
  • Total IG: €250m
  • Avg. tranche size €250m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -3 (covered) - €250m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing  (unsecured) - €0
  • Avg. cover 1.36 X
• SSA
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA
  • Avg. cover NA

• Pipeline:  The European IG pipeline is as follows. 
  • 2 x € Corp (1 x dual-tranche debut)
  • 2 x € FIG (2 x Covered)
  • 2 x € SSA

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Talking Point

• The €'s relationship with the US$ & Sterling has moved through two distinct phases since the beginning of last year, a sustained rally that carried EUR/USD up over 17% into early 2026, followed by a gradual trending decline since the beginning of 2026, punctuated by a sharp weakening over the past 5 weeks, while EUR/GBP has traced a shallower version of the same arc.
• EUR/USD staged a powerful rally through 2025, bottoming at 1.0244 on the 10th of January, then strengthening steadily, with a sharp acceleration in April, before settling near 1.1746 by year-end, a gain of 14.66%.
• EUR/USD peaked at 1.2041 on the 27th of January 2026. It has since retraced 7.0% to today's 1.1198.
• EUR/GBP diverged, with Sterling proving more resilient. The pair bottomed at 0.82494 & peaked later, at 0.8835 on the 21st of November 2025, a rise of only 7.1%. It has since fallen 4.16% to today's 0.84671.
• The decline has accelerated sharply since early September 2026, with EUR/USD dropping 3.41% & EUR/GBP falling 1.28% in 5 weeks, a notably steeper pace than the gradual H1 2026 drift.
• French sovereign stress is a key driver behind the pace of € weakness. The OAT to Bund 10yr spread has widened from 86.4bp to 150.2bp over the same window, triggered by France's Finance Minister abandoning the 5% deficit target on the 11th of September & deepening political paralysis ahead of the 2027 election, timing that lines up closely with the €'s slide against both the US$ & Sterling.
• A broader global rates selloff, partly tied to the Iran war related inflation shock & the ECB lifting its deposit rate to 2.5% in September, has compounded the move, while reported real-money exits from French bonds & hedge-fund buying of € puts point to active de-risking rather than passive drift.

Euro IG (today)

• Amprion GmbH (exp. Issue ratings of Baa2 / A- by Moody’s & Fitch) announced a dual-tranche € benchmark, Green issue with a 6yr & 10yr tranche. The unsecured, Reg S, Bearer notes carried respective IPTs in the area of MS+120 & MS+155. Combined books were north of €5.6bn (split evenly at €2.8bn each). The deal launched for a combined €1.5bn - €750m for the 6yr at MS+90 & €750m for the 10yr at MS+125. Final books on the 6yr were over €2.35bn, & over €3bn for the 10yr.
  • All recent trades by Amprion have been green issues, with their last a €1bn, dual-tranche subordinated offering on the 20th of April. Their last senior print was a triple tranche on the 7th of January when they priced a €700m 5yr @ MS+65 (-37.5bps tighter than IPTS from a €2.1bn book); a €1bn 12yr @ MS+110 (35bps tighter than IPTs from a €3.5bn book); & a €900m 20yr @ MS+140 (35bps tighter than IPTs from a €3.8bn book). Amprion is one of Germany's 4 main electricity transmission system operators, responsible for managing, maintaining, & expanding a high-voltage power grid that transports electricity across western & southern Germany.

• Evangelische Bank eG (exp. Issue rating of AAA by S&P), brought their anticipated € offering. Having previously stated a 5 to 7yr maturity they opted to bring a 6yr, €250m (wng) sub-benchmark inaugural Mortgage Covered Bond (Hypothekenpfandbrief). Guidance on the notes was in the area of MS+35. Books were first called above €300m (inc. €50m JLMs). The deal launched & priced for €250m at MS+32, with the book over €325m (inc. €50m JLMs). Final books good at re-offer were above €340m (inc. €50m JLMs).
  • The borrower is a German cooperative bank used to only issuing very small illiquid debt deals in the domestic market (eg: €40m or less). Today’s trade represents their inaugural Mortgage Covered Bond (Hypothekenpfandbrief). They have issued traditional mortgage Pfandbrief bonds before, but again all small & domestic.

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Sterling IG (today)

• Landeskreditbank Baden Wuerttemberg – Foerderbank [aka: L-Bank] (rated Aaa / AA+ / AAA by Moody's, S&P & Fitch). Guarantor: Explicitly & unconditionally guaranteed by the German Federal State of Baden-Wuerttemberg, announced a £ benchmark with a maturity of 31st July 2031. The Reg S, Bearer, senior unsecured offering was announced with spread set at SONIA MS+40 (equivalent to UKT 0.25% 31st July 2031 +22.5 at announcement). Books were first called above £260m (exc. JLMs). The deal launched for £300m from a book that closed above £320m (exc. JLMs).
  • This is L-Banks’ 3rd £ trade YTD, having last priced a £500m 3yr FRN at SONIA MS+32 (in line with guidance from a £550m book). Prior to that they brought a £650m 4.5yr at MS+37 (in line with guidance from a book of £750m).

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Swiss Franc IG (today)

• No issues

Week-to-date volumes:

US$ Reg S (today)

• No issues

Pending Deals & Mandates

Euro (€)

• 29th September: AusNet Services Holdings Pty Limited (exp. Issue ratings of Baa1 / BBB+ by Moody’s & S&P), mandated Barclays, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs International & HSBC to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings commencing Wednesday the 30th September. A € benchmark 10.5yr, Reg S senior unsecured transaction may follow, subject to market conditions. AusNet is an Australian diversified energy infrastructure business that owns & operates the primary regulated Victorian electricity transmission network, as well as an electricity distribution network in eastern Victoria & a gas distribution network in western Victoria.
• 5th October: DFMG Holding GmbH (exp. Issue ratings of BBB- / BBB by Fitch & Kroll), the leading tower infrastructure operator in Germany & Austria, mandated BNP Paribas, BBVA & Crédit Agricole CIB as Joint Active Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls on Monday 5th & Tuesday 6th October. BNP Paribas is coordinating logistics. A debut € benchmark Reg S, bearer, fixed-rate, senior secured dual-tranche bond offering, consisting of long 4yr & 7yr, will follow, subject to market conditions.

• 21st September: Fairstone Bank of Canada (exp. Issue ratings of Aa1 / AA by Moody’s & DBRS), mandated RBC Capital Markets as Arranger & Sole Structuring Advisor, & BMO Capital Markets, DZ Bank, LBBW, Natixis & RBC Capital Markets as Joint Active Bookrunners for an inaugural 3yr € benchmark soft-bullet Covered Bond. The Covered Bonds are backed by Canadian residential mortgages. This is the borrower's debut covered bond.
• 30th September: Equitable Bank (exp. Issue rating of Aa1 / AA+ by Moody’s & Fitch), mandated Barclays, Commerzbank, DZ Bank AG, Erste Group, LBBW, Scotiabank & TD Securities as Joint Lead Managers to manage its forthcoming €500m (wng) Dec 2029, RegS registered Covered bond transaction. The issue will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.

• 1st October: The Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt (rated Aa1 by Moody’s & Fitch), mandated BayernLB, CACIB, DZ Bank, ING, JP Morgan, NatWest & NordLB to lead manage its upcoming €500m (wng) inaugural Green, fixed rate Landesschatzanweisung with a medium term maturity. DZ Bank & NatWest are Joint Stability Coordinators The deal will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions.
• 5th October: The State of NRW (rated Aa1 / AA / AAA / AAA by Moody’s, S&P, Fitch & Scope) mandated BayernLB, DZ Bank, HSBC, LBBW & Rabobank to lead manage its upcoming new 10yr € benchmark fixed rate, RegS trade. The deal will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions.

Transaction Details

PRICED: Evangelische Bank eG €250m 6yr CB; MS+32bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - General

Reoffer: 6yr: MS+32bp / 99.652% / 3.816%
Benchmark: 6yr: DBR 1.7 15-Aug-32 @ 91.87% / B+57bp / HR 105%

6yr: Final Books above €340m (incl. €50m JLM)

Launched: 6yr: €250m @ MS+32bp - Orderbook above €325mn (incl. 50mn JLM-Interest)
Spread set at: 6yr: MS+32bp
Book update: Orderbook above €300mn (incl. 50mn JLM)
Guidance: 6yr: MS+35a

• Issuer: Evangelische Bank eG (Ticker: EVKGSB)
• LEI: 529900R600X5X54X0G26
• Issuer Rating: A+ (stable) S&P
• Exp. Issue Rating: AAA (S&P)
• Rating Split: Issuer: A+ (stable) S&P, Issue: AAA (S&P)
• Status: Hypothekenpfandbrief (German Mortgage Covered Bond)
• Issue Size: €250m
• Settlement: 13-Oct-26 (T+6)
• Maturity: 13-Oct-32 (6Y)
• Coupon: 3.75% fixed, annual, act/act ICMA, unadjusted
• Reoffer: MS+32bp / 99.652% / 3.816%
• Benchmark: DBR 1.7 15-Aug-32 @ 91.87% / B+57bp, HR 105%
• Denominations: 100k + 100k
• Listing/Law: Luxemburg / German law
• ISIN/WKN: DE000A5DST37 / A5DST3
• Joint Bookrunners: Commerzbank, DZ Bank (B&D) and NORD/LB
• MIFID II: Manufacturer target markets (MIFID II product governance) are eligible counterparties and professional clients only (All distribution channels).
• Fees: The joint bookrunners will be paid a fee in respect of the placement of the securities.
• Timing: Priced, TOE: 13.50 CET, FTT: 14.00 CET

PRICED: L-Bank £300m Short 5yr Sr Unsec; SONIA MS+40bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - General

Reoffer: Short 5yr: SONIA MS+40bp / 99.607 / 5.099% Ann Yield / 5.036% S/A Yield
Benchmark: Short 5yr: UKT 0 ¼ 31-Jul-31 +21.5bp (80.555 / 4.821%) HR 113%

Short 5yr: Final Books above £320m. Peak book above £320m (excl. JLM interest)

Launched: Short 5yr: £300m @ SONIA MS+40bp - Books closed above £320m (excl. JLM interest)
Book update: Books above £260m (excl. JLM interest)
Spread set at: Short 5yr: SONIA MS+40bp

• Issuer: Landeskreditbank Baden Wuerttemberg - Foerderbank (L-Bank)
• Guarantor: Explicitly and unconditionally guaranteed by the German Federal State of Baden-Wuerttemberg
• Rating: Aaa/AA+/AAA (Moody's/S&P/Fitch, Outlook stable)
• ESG Rating: AAA / Low Risk / Prime (MSCI / Sustainalytics / ISS ESG)
• Format: Reg S, Bearer, Senior unsecured
• Size: £300m
• Maturity: 31-Jul-31
• Settlement: 12-Oct-26 (T+5)
• Coupon: 5% Fixed, Annual, Act/Act, short first coupon
• Reoffer: SONIA MS+40bp / 99.607 / 5.099% Ann Yield / 5.036% S/A Yield
• Benchmark: UKT 0 ¼ 31-Jul-31 +21.5bp (80.555 / 4.821%) HR 113%
• Denoms: £1k + £1k
• Listing: Luxembourg
• Law: German
• Docs: Issuer's Debt Issuance Programme
• Bookrunners: Barc / BMO / DB (B&D/DM) / TD
• ISIN: XS3534736973
• Target Market: For MIFID II/UK MiFIR purposes target markets are eligible counterparties and professional clients (all distribution channels)
• Advertisement: This communication is an advertisement for the purposes of Regulation (EU) 2017/1129 and underlying legislation. It is not a prospectus. The prospectus is available at: https://www.bourse.lu/issuer/LKrBkBadenWurtt/43647
• Priced: TOE 13:24 UKT - FTT immediately

PRICED: Amprion GmbH €1.5bn 6yr & 10yr Green Sr Unsec; MS+90bp & MS+125bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - General

Reoffer: 6yr: MS+90bp / 100 / 4.398% 10yr: MS+125bp / 100 / 4.838%
Benchmark: 6yr: DBR 1.7% 15-Aug-32 @ 91.70 / B+111.7bp / HR 104% 10yr: DBR 3% 15-Aug-36 @ 95.93 / B+134.5bp / HR 97%

Tranche 1 (6yr): Final Book > €2.35bn. Peak book north of €2.8bn | HR 104% vs DBR 1.70% 15-Aug-32
Tranche 2 (10yr): Final Book > €3.00bn | HR 97% vs DBR 3.00% 15-Aug-36

Launched:
6yr: €750m @ MS+90bp - Books north of €2.8bn
10yr: €750m @ MS+125bp - Books north of €2.8bn
IPTs: 6yr: MS+120a 10yr: MS+155a

• Issuer: Amprion GmbH (Ticker: AMPRIO, Country: DE)
• Issuer LEI: 529900ZIV0ETYHYZM863
• Issuer Rating: Baa2 (stable outlook) by Moody's / BBB+ (stable outlook) by Fitch
• Expected Issue Rating: Baa2 by Moody's / A- by Fitch
• Rating Split: Issuer: Baa2/BBB+ (Moody's/Fitch), Issue: Baa2/A- (Moody's/Fitch)
• ESG Ratings: Low Risk ESG Risk Rating by Sustainalytics & ESG Rating of 2 on Entity, Framework and Instrument respectively by Sustainable Fitch
• Format: Unsecured, unsubordinated, Reg S, Bearer, Green
• Pricing: 5-Oct-26
• Settlement: 13-Oct-26 (T+6)
• Size:
  • 6yr: €750m
  • 10yr: €750m
• Maturity:
  • 6yr: 13-Oct-32
  • 10yr: 13-Oct-36
• Reoffer:
  • 6yr: MS+90 / 100 / 4.398%
  • 10yr: MS+125 / 100 / 4.838%
• Ref Benchmark:
  • 6yr: 111.7bps vs DBR 1.7% 15-Aug-32 (@91.70 / 3.281) HR: 104%
  • 10yr: 134.5bps vs DBR 3% 15-Aug-36 (@95.93 / 3.493%) HR: 97%
• Coupon:
  • 6yr: 4.398%, Fixed (annual), Act/Act
  • 10yr: 4.838%, Fixed (annual), Act/Act
• ISIN:
  • 6yr: DE000A5GS7K6
  • 10yr: DE000A5GS7L4
• TOE:
  • 6yr: 15.35 UKT
  • 10yr: 15.37 UKT
• Docs: Euro MTF / DIP / German Law / €100k + €100k / 3m Par Call / Tax Call / Clean-up Call (75%) / Change-of-Control Put
• Selling Restrictions: As set out in the base prospectus dated 17-Apr-26, supplemented on 21-Aug-26 and 2-Oct-26 (the "Base Prospectus")
• Sales into Canada: Sales into Ontario/Alberta/British Columbia, subject to compliance with applicable law
• Use of Proceeds: New issue proceeds will be allocated as set out in the Issuer's Green Finance Framework and in the Base Prospectus
• Target Market: Manufacturer target market (MIFID II (Directive 2014/65/EU (as amended)) product governance) is eligible counterparties and professional clients (all distribution channels). No EU or UK PRIIPs key information document (KID) has been prepared as the Notes are not available to retail investors in EEA or UK.
• Stabilisation: FCA/ICMA stabilisation applies
• Global Coordinators: BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, ING
• Joint Lead Managers: BayernLB, BNP Paribas (B&D), BofA Securities, Crédit Agricole CIB, DZ BANK AG, Helaba, ING
• Timing: PRICED. FTT: 16.15 UKT
• Advertisement: This communication is not an advertisement for the purposes of Regulation (EU) 2017/1129 and underlying legislation. It is not a prospectus. The Base Prospectus is available and the Final Terms, when published, will be available at: https://www.luxse.com

6yr (Oct 2032) @ MS+120a
Implied Spread for fresh 6yr @ MS+82
Priced at MS+90
NIC of +8

10yr (Oct 2036) @ MS+155a
Implied Spread for fresh 10yr @ MS+115
Priced at MS+125
NIC of +10

• To view the LIVE / REAL TIME European IG pipeline please click here.
• Details correct at time of posting