• Very negative morning, with sentiment improving only slightly through the afternoon.
• The first half of the day saw the sell-off deepen in Gilts, Bunds & most notably in OAT’s.
  • 10yr OAT’s hit a day high of 4.956%, levels not seen since June 2002.
  • Wider by 72bps in 1 mth & 104bps in 3mths.
  • Reminder: France has been on ‘negative’ watch by Moody’s (Aa3) since October 2025.
    • A+ Stable from both S&P & Fitch
    • Scope downgraded France’s long-term ratings to A+ on the 18th of September.
• Credit indices & spreads pulled back from their wides, yet were still wider. Oil remained elevated, & equities were still weak.
• € IG supply week-to-date has reached €12.75bn.
  • 94.4% of Supply Survey Forecasts of €13.51bn.
• While deals did get done, order book multiples remained low.
  • IDA 1.2 X & Lower Saxony 1.14 X.
  • This follows yesterday's 0.79 X for the Free State of Saxony & 0.9 X for NIB.
• € IG delivered only €3bn from 3 deals (1 x Corp & 2 x SSA) & via 4 tranches.
• There was no supply in either the Sterling (£), Swiss Franc or US$ Reg S markets.
• Today’s “Talking Point” (below) looks at € IG corporate primary issuance YTD, covering volumes, deal counts, & final book dynamics.
• iTraxx Europe & the iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices ballooned in the morning session, though pulled back in the afternoon though were still wider, currently at 64.301 (+1.11%), 71.533 (+0.57%) & 119.157 (+0.87%) respectively (as we print).
• Vix Index crawled slowly wider, now at 15.45 (15.08 this morning).
• Brent Crude continued to climb higher throughout the day, currently at c.$105.41 (c.$102.7 this morning).
• European equity bourses recovered from session lows with the FTSE just in the green, up 0.01%, while the Dax & CAC 40 were down by -0.99% & -0.34% respectively.
• A breakdown of today’s primary € IG supply is as follows.

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €1bn
  • Avg. tranche size €500m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -26
  • Avg. cover 3.4 X
• FIG
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing (covered) €0 
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing (unsecured) €0
  • Avg. cover NA
• SSA
  • Total IG: €2bn
  • Avg. tranche size €1bn
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -1
  • Avg. cover 1.17 X

• Pipeline:  The European IG pipeline is as follows. 
  • 1 x € Corp
  • 1 x € FIG (1 x Covered)
  • 3 x € SSA (1 x Green & 1 x Digital Native Security)
  • 1 x £ SSA (slated for Q1 2027 - will keep in pipeline for this week then remove)

• The European Union (RFP): Likely to launch their scheduled 15yr next week. May also bring a 7yr (TBC & possibly a TAP of their 10/33). Expect a combined €9 to €11bn.

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Talking Point

• Issuance volumes have thinned markedly since the post-Labour Day rush. Weeks 34 to 36 (28 Aug to 11 Sep) saw a combined €37.48bn printed across 32 deals, one of the heaviest stretches of the year. Issuance has since reduced with Week 39 at €4.4bn (5 deals) & Week 40 at €4bn (3 deals); among the lightest weeks since the Week 32 shutout.
• Credit spreads have widened over the same window, which raises the cost of coming to market & is cited as a key driver of the slowdown, alongside a volatile rates backdrop.
• Risk-off sentiment & French fiscal/political concerns are weighing heavily on the market tone.
• Commentary from syndicates point to higher new issue premiums & more price-sensitive investors.
• Earnings blackout is compounding the seasonal lull. Q3 reporting season structurally shrinks the eligible issuer pool, reinforcing the pullback.
• Data confirms a genuine volume & deal-count slowdown in Weeks 37 to 40 versus H1, with cover ratios compressing into a narrower, lower band.

Euro IG (today)

• DFMG Holding GmbH (exp. Issue ratings of BBB- / BBB by Fitch & Kroll), having concluded their investor work on Tuesday, brought their anticipated debut € benchmark Reg S, bearer, fixed-rate, senior secured dual-tranche bond offering, consisting of long 4yr (15th May 2031) & 7yr. IPTs on the Long 4yr were in the area of MS+170; & in the area of MS+200 for the 7yr. Combined books were in excess of €3.7bn (split €2.0bn & €1.7bn respectively). The deal launched for €500m on each tranche, with spreads set at MS+143 & MS+175 in turn. Final books in excess of of €3.4bn (split €2bn & €1.4bn) respectively.
  • Today’s deal is a true debut to the public bond markets, in any currency. DFMG Holding GmbH is the holding company for Deutsche Funkturm (DFMG Deutsche Funkturm GmbH), Germany’s primary passive telecommunications infrastructure provider. The entity issuing today manages, acquires, builds, & leases passive mobile infrastructure (primarily telecommunication towers, rooftop antenna masts, & small cells). It provides tower access & infrastructure services to major mobile network operators like Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Telefónica (O2), & 1&1.

• The International Development Association - IDA (rated Aaa / AAA by Moody’s & S&P), having mandated yesterday, brought their anticipated 30yr, fixed rate, € benchmark Sustainable Development Bond (SEC exempt). Guidance on the trade was in the area of MS+82. Books were first cited as over €1bn (exc. JLMs) & closed at €1.2bn. Spread set at MS+80 & the deal launched & priced for €1bn.
  • This is the IDA’s 2nd visit to the public € markets YTD, having last priced a €2bn 15yr Sustainable trade on the 13th of May at MS+42 (2bps tighter than guidance from a book of €5bn). Prior to that they brought a €2bn 25yr trade in October 2025 at MS+84 (2bps tighter than guidance from a book of €2.9bn).
• The Federal State of Lower-Saxony (rated AAA by Fitch), brought its expected € benchmark, 8yr (13th Oct 2034), LSA (Landesschatzanweisung), senior unsecured trade. Guidance on the notes was in the area of MS+22. Books first called above €750m (inc. €100m JLMs), rising to above €800m (inc. €125m JLMs). Spread set at MS+22. The trade launched for €1bn when books were above €1.14bn (inc. €125m JLMs). Final books were on the same terms & the trade priced for €1bn at MS+22.
  • Only a little over 2 weeks ago they brought a €500m 10yr FRN which they priced at 6mth €+21 (in line with guidance). On the fixed rate side we go back to March the 11th when they priced a €1bn 3yr at MS+5 (in line with guidance, from a book of €1.6bn). In 2026 they also printed a €1bn 8yr in February & a €3bn dual-tranche (8yr & 5.25yr) on the 5th of January. Books on the January trade were impressive at €7.4bn & €10.3bn respectively.

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Sterling IG (today)

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Swiss Franc IG (today)

• No issues

Week-to-date volumes:

US$ Reg S (today)

• No issues

Pending Deals & Mandates

Euro (€)

• 29th September: AusNet Services Holdings Pty Limited (exp. Issue ratings of Baa1 / BBB+ by Moody’s & S&P), mandated Barclays, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs International & HSBC to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings commencing Wednesday the 30th September. A € benchmark 10.5yr, Reg S senior unsecured transaction may follow, subject to market conditions. AusNet is an Australian diversified energy infrastructure business that owns & operates the primary regulated Victorian electricity transmission network, as well as an electricity distribution network in eastern Victoria & a gas distribution network in western Victoria.

• 21st September: Fairstone Bank of Canada (exp. Issue ratings of Aa1 / AA by Moody’s & DBRS), mandated RBC Capital Markets as Arranger & Sole Structuring Advisor, & BMO Capital Markets, DZ Bank, LBBW, Natixis & RBC Capital Markets as Joint Active Bookrunners for an inaugural 3yr € benchmark soft-bullet Covered Bond. The Covered Bonds are backed by Canadian residential mortgages. This is the borrower's debut covered bond.

• 1st October: The Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt (rated Aa1 by Moody’s & Fitch), mandated BayernLB, CACIB, DZ Bank, ING, JP Morgan, NatWest & NordLB to lead manage its upcoming €500m (wng) inaugural Green, fixed rate Landesschatzanweisung with a medium term maturity. DZ Bank & NatWest are Joint Stability Coordinators The deal will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions.
• 6th October: The City of Dortmund mandated DekaBank & UniCredit to lead manage its upcoming €150m (min) 7yr Stadtanleihe. The issue will be 0% risk weighted, LCR Level 1. The deal will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions.
• 7th October: The Federal State of Lower-Saxony (rated AAA by Fitch), mandated Helaba, JP Morgan, LBBW, NordLB & UniCredit to lead manage its upcoming, 8yr (13th Oct 2034), € Benchmark LSA (Landesschatzanweisung). The transaction will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions.
• 7th October: The Grand Duchy of Luxembourg (rated Aaa / AAA / AAA by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch), mandated Barclays, BCEE, BGL BNP Paribas, Citi & Credit Agricole CIB as Joint Lead Managers to arrange a series of virtual fixed-income investor calls in relation to its upcoming Inaugural 10yr, € benchmark fixed rate Digitally Native Securities. The Digitally Native Securities will be issued on a distributed ledger technology (DLT) platform operated by LuxCSD S.A. (D7 DLT Platform). The Digitally Native Securities are also eligible for clearance & settlement though Clearstream Banking & Euroclear Bank SA/NV. The transaction is expected to be launched & priced in the near future, subject to market conditions. RegS Bearer, CAC, FCA/ICMA stabilisation.

Sterling (£)

• 6th October: His Majesty’s Treasury (HMT) of United Kingdom has mandated Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Morgan Stanley, NatWest & RBC for its Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) pilot issuance following a competitive procurement process. The transaction is expected to take place by Q1 2027. This follows the appointment of HSBC as the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) supplier in February, & the announcement in July that HSBC & LSEG have signed a memorandum of understanding to deliver a bilateral Digital Securities Deposit link.  

Transaction Details

PRICED: The International Development Association €1bn 30yr Sr Unsec; MS+80bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - SSA

Reoffer: 30yr: MS+80bp / 99.353 / 4.339%
Benchmark: 30yr: DBR 2.9 15-Aug-56 @ 82.37 / B+42.8bp

Tranche 1 (30yr): Peak book over €1.2bn (exc JLM interest)

Launched: 30yr: €1bn @ MS+80bp - Orderbooks closed over €1.2bn (exc JLM interest)
Spread set at: 30yr: MS+80bp - Orderbook over €1bn (exc JLM interest)
Guidance: 30yr: MS+82a

• Issuer: The International Development Association (IDA)
• Ticker: IDAWBG
• Issue Rating: AAA (S&P) / Aaa (Moody's) (both stable)
• Format: Global (SEC exempt) Sustainable Development Bond
• Total Size: €1bn
• Settlement: 16-Oct-26 (T+6)
• Maturity: 16-Oct-56
• Spread: MS+80bp
• Reoffer: 99.353 / 4.339%
• Benchmark: +42.8 bps vs DBR 2.9 15-Aug-56 (82.37/3.911)
• Coupon: 4.3%, Fixed, Annual ACT/ACT
• Listing: Luxembourg Stock Exchange's Regulated Market
• Docs: Global Debt Issuance Facility
• Law: English Law
• Denoms: €1,000 + €1,000
• ISIN: XS3538132773
• Bookrunners: DB (B&D) / BNPP / DZ Bank
• Target Market: Retail / Professional / Eligible Counterparties (MIFID II/UK MiFIR, all distribution channels)
• Timing: Priced, TOE 11.33 UKT, FTT immediately

PRICED: Federal State of Lower Saxony €1bn 8yr Sr Unsec; MS+22bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - SSA

Reoffer: 8yr: MS+22bp / 99.614 / 3.807% Benchmark: 8yr: DBR 2.6% 15-Aug-34 @ 94.33 / B+37.1bp

8yr: Final books above 1.14bn (incl. 125mn JLM) good at reoffer. Peak book above 1.14bn (incl. 125mn JLM) pre rec

Launched: 8yr: €1bn @ MS+22bp - Books above 1.14bn (incl. 125mn JLM) pre rec

Spread set at: 8yr: MS+22bp - Books above €800mn (incl. €125mn JLM)

Book Update: Books above €750mn (incl. 100mn JLM)

Guidance: 8yr: MS+22a

• Issuer: Federal State of Lower Saxony
• LEI: 391200ITQQZ7JMHXK080
• Issuer Rating: AAA (Fitch)
• Ticker: NIESA
• Format: Landesschatzanweisung (0% rw, senior unsecured)
• Issue Size: €1bn
• Maturity: 13-Oct-34 (8y)
• Settlement: 15-Oct-26 (T+5)
• Coupon: 3.75%, fixed, annual, Act/Act ICMA, short first
• Reoffer: MS+22bp / 99.614 / 3.807%
• Benchmark: DBR 2.6% 15-Aug-34 @ 94.33 / B+37.1bp
• Law/List/Denoms: German / Hannover / €1k+€1k
• ISIN: DE000A5GS7U5
• Bookrunners: Helaba, J.P. Morgan, LBBW (B&D), NORD/LB and UniCredit
• Fees: The banks will be paid a fee in relation to this transaction
• Target Market: The manufacturer target market (MIFID II product governance) for the bonds is retail, professional and eligible counterparties, each as defined in MiFID II (all channels for distribution of the bonds are appropriate).
• Timing: TOE 12.53 CET / FTT immediately

PRICED: DFMG Holding GmbH €1bn Long 4yr & 7yr Snr Sec; MS+143bp & MS+175bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - General

Reoffer: Long 4yr: MS+143bp / 99.819 / 4.927% 7yr: MS+175bp / 99.805 / 5.284%
Benchmark: Long 4yr: OBL 2 1/2 16-Apr-31 @ 96.90 / B+168.2bp (HR: 99%) 7yr: DBR 2.6 15-Aug-33 @ 95.36 / B+191.4bp (HR: 98%)

Tranche 1 (Long 4yr): Final books in excess of €2.0bn.
Tranche 2 (7yr): Final books in excess of €1.4bn. Peak book in excess of €1.7bn.

Launched:
Long 4yr: €500m @ MS+143bp - Books in excess of €2.0bn
7yr: €500m @ MS+175bp - Books in excess of €1.7bn
IPTs: Long 4yr: MS+170a 7yr: MS+200a

• Issuer: DFMG Holding GmbH (Ticker: "FUNKGR", Country: GER)
• Issuer LEI: 529900E3V0VHTY0WV642
• Guarantors: As defined in the Preliminary Prospectus
• Issuer Rating: BBB- (stable outlook) by Fitch / BBB (stable outlook) by Kroll
• Expected Issue Ratings: BBB by Fitch / BBB+ by Kroll
• Status: Senior, unsubordinated, secured
• Format: Reg S (Cat 2), Bearer form; Temporary Global Note, exchangeable for a Permanent Global Note
• Settlement: 15-Oct-26 (T+5)
• Tenor:
  • Long 4yr: Long 4yr
  • 7yr: 7yr
• Size:
  • Long 4yr: €500m
  • 7yr: €500m
• Maturity:
  • Long 4yr: 15-May-31
  • 7yr: 15-Oct-33
• Re-offer:
  • Long 4yr: MS+143bps / 99.819 / 4.927%
  • 7yr: MS+175bps / 99.805 / 5.284%
• Benchmark:
  • Long 4yr: 168.2bps vs OBL 2 1/2 16-Apr-31 @ 96.90 / 3.245% (HR: 99%)
  • 7yr: 191.4bps vs DBR 2.6 15-Aug-33 @ 95.36 / 3.37% (HR: 98%)
• Par Call:
  • Long 4yr: 2m
  • 7yr: 3m
• Coupon:
  • Long 4yr: 4.875%, Fixed, Annual, Act/Act (ICMA), short first, following unadjusted
  • 7yr: 5.250%, Fixed, Annual, Act/Act (ICMA), following unadjusted
• MWC:
  • Long 4yr: B+25bps
  • 7yr: B+30bps
• ISIN / Common Code:
  • Long 4yr: XS3491316769 / 349131676
  • 7yr: XS3491317148 / 349131714
• TOE:
  • Long 4yr: 15:57 UKT
  • 7yr: 15:55 UKT
• Documentation: Standalone Prospectus / Euro MTF Lux Listing / English Law / CoC / Clean-up Call (80%) / Make Whole Call / Tax Call
• Denomination: €100,000 and any integral multiple thereof
• Selling Restrictions: As per Preliminary Prospectus
• Use of Proceeds: The net proceeds of the issue of the Notes will be used for the refinancing of existing bank debt, including the Initial Facilities Agreement, and general corporate purposes
• Security Package: Secured by security interests in the share capital of the Issuer and the Guarantors, material bank accounts of the Issuer and the Guarantors, (interest) hedging receivables of the Issuer against certain hedge counterparties, receivables owed by the Issuer and deriving from shareholder loans by GD Towers Holding GmbH (the Parent) and intercompany loan receivables as well as master lease agreement payment receivables by the Issuer and the Guarantors
• Financial Covenants: (i) Leverage (Total Net Debt / pre IFRS adj. EBITDA) < 10.5x (ii) and ICR (pre IFRS adj. EBITDA / Net Finance Charges) > 2.0x
• Restricted Payment Lock Up Test: (i) Leverage < 8.5x (ii) ICR > 2.5x
• Target Market: Manufacturer target market (MiFID II and UK MiFIR product governance) is eligible counterparties and professional client only (all distribution channels). No EU PRIIPs key information document or CCI product summary has been prepared as the Notes will not be made available to retail investors in the European Economic Area or in the United Kingdom.
• Joint Active Bookrunners: BNP Paribas (B&D), BBVA, Crédit Agricole CIB
• Clearing: Euroclear Bank SA/NV / Clearstream Banking SA
• Marketing: Visit https://dealroadshow.finsight.com and enter passcode DFMG2026
• Advertisement: The final standalone prospectus, when published, will be available at https://www.luxse.com/
• Stabilisation: Relevant stabilisation regulations including ICMA/FCA will apply
• FTT: 16:20 UKT

• To view the LIVE / REAL TIME European IG pipeline please click here.
• Details correct at time of posting