• Last week was a volatile session with € IG primary markets still managing to deliver €13.75bn vs forecasts of €13.51bn.
• This week expectations are for €25.5bn (see detail below), though this includes a large potential dual-tranche for the EU. Stripping this deal out, expectations are for volumes & activity to be similar to last week.
• Geo-political turmoil over the weekend looks set to exacerbate what was already expected to be another volatile week.
• Reminder: Today is a holiday in the USA (Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples' Day) & Spain (National Day of Spain).
• The IMF & World Bank meetings begin in Bangkok today & will run all week.
• On Friday € IG delivered only €1bn from 1 deal (1 x Corp) via 2 tranches.
• There was no supply in either the Sterling (£), Swiss Franc or US$ Reg S markets.
• Brent Crude has a testing week ahead with many variables impacting sentiment, currently trading at c.$104.05 (c.$103.95 at Friday’s ‘End of Day’). 
• The VIX tightened into Friday’s close, set to open at 14.84 (15.05 at Friday’s ‘End of Day’).
• iTraxx Europe & iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices ended Friday tighter, set to open at 62.943 (-1.97%), 70.604 (-1.34%) & 117.387 (-1.64%) respectively (% △ on Friday).
• Pipeline:  The European IG pipeline is as follows. 
  • 1 x € Corp (Scheduled for Monday)
  • 1 x € FIG (1 x Covered)
  • 3 x € SSA (1 x Green & 1 x Digital Native Security)

• The European Union (RFP): Likely to launch their scheduled 15yr this week. May also bring a 7yr (TBC & possibly a TAP of their 10/33). Expect a combined €9 to €12bn.

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on Bloomberg or stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Primary IG Supply Survey Results for This Week

Key € IG Supply Stats for Last Week

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €6bn
  • Avg. tranche size €600m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -27.9
  • Avg. cover 4.4 X
• FIG
  • Total IG: €4bn
  • Avg. tranche size €800m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -35 (covered) €3bn 
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -3.8 (unsecured) €1bn
  • Avg. cover NA
• SSA
  • Total IG: €3.75bn
  • Avg. tranche size €938m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -1
  • Avg. cover 1.3 X

Geo-Political News

• Trump Lifts Russian Sanctions & Secures Diesel Import Agreement Trump has reignited his personal feud with Ukrainian President Zelensky after lifting select sanctions on Russia & striking a deal with Putin to import diesel into the US to ease domestic fuel price pressures. Trump aggressively criticized Zelensky for targeting Russian energy infrastructure despite US directives to refrain. In a public statement on Saturday, Trump demanded Zelensky be replaced & stated he “better damn well stop” targeting Russian oil refineries. Trump clearly attributed domestic energy price inflation directly to Ukrainian military strikes, while omitting any reference to the ongoing US war with Iran. Moscow will undoubtedly utilise proceeds from this lucrative US energy deal to fund military operations in Ukraine. Driven by looming domestic midterm elections & mounting voter pressure over rising fuel prices, Trump has prioritized short-term domestic relief over Eastern European security dynamics, overlooking the fact that the US & Israeli attacks on Iran were the primary catalyst of the energy crisis.
• Trumps Unilateral Claim of an Energy Asset Ceasefire Disputed Amid Continued Strikes Trump claimed on Truth Social over the weekend that Russia & Ukraine reached an agreement on a bilateral ‘energy ceasefire’. Zelensky responded promptly, stating he had no knowledge of any such pact, though he offered to hold domestic elections if Putin agreed to a binding 60-day pause in active hostilities. Despite these public declarations, heavy Russian strikes targeted urban centres across Ukraine throughout Sunday night, leading to widespread power grid failures & rolling blackouts overnight. The disconnect between US political assertions & daily frontline reality highlights increasing friction between Washington & Kyiv regarding diplomatic strategy. Ukrainian officials remain sceptical of Moscow’s intentions, noting that missile barrages against key power generation plants & infrastructure show no signs of stopping, while European allies broadly object to Trumps actions & assertions over the weekend.
• Houthi Missile Strikes Target Riyadh International Airport Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched a major missile strike on the international airport in Riyadh, resulting in 12 fatalities & over 300 injuries. Houthi military commanders warned international airlines to stay out of Saudi airspace & cautioned passengers against using regional hubs. Trump condemned the aggression but abstained from offering direct military assistance or concrete defensive guarantees to Saudi authorities. A second overnight strike hit the airport, killing one additional person & heightening regional security alerts. The attack coincides with the opening of the World Petroleum Congress in Saudi Arabia today, where delegate attendance has been severely disrupted by widespread flight cancellations across the region. Saudi defence forces have heightened anti-air readiness as regional security experts anticipate immediate retaliatory measures against rebel strongholds in Yemen.
• North Korea Conducts Long-Range Ballistic Missile Tests North Korea test-fired long-range ballistic missiles that breached international maritime boundaries, escalating security concerns across East Asia. The weapons tests represent a direct violation of international law & UN Security Council resolutions, drawing immediate condemnation from regional defence ministries. South Korean & Japanese defence analysts confirmed that the projectiles crossed maritime demarcation lines, triggering emergency tracking protocols & military alerts. The strategic timing of these launches highlights Pyongyang’s continued push to enhance its strategic offensive capabilities amid shifting global focus toward Eastern Europe & the Middle East. Defence officials in Washington & Tokyo are coordinating intelligence assets to assess missile specifications, trajectory data, & potential payload capabilities, while regional armed forces remain on elevated alert for further provocative military demonstrations.
• G7 & World Bank Convene Annual Summit in Bangkok Delegations representing G7 member nations, the World Bank, & the International Monetary Fund have gathered in Bangkok for high-level global policy discussions. World finance ministers, central bank governors, & sovereign wealth executives are meeting to address worsening global macroeconomic instability, surging debt levels in developing economies, & systemic supply chain fractures triggered by ongoing Middle Eastern hostiles. Key agenda items include structural adjustments for emerging markets, international liquidity facilities, & strategic trade security. Central bank representatives are scheduled to engage in bilateral dialogues regarding inflation pressures & monetary policy coordination. The multilateral conference takes place under strict security protocols as delegates seek to establish consensus on international economic stability measures.
• Trilateral Maritime Security Dialogue Advances in Indo-Pacific Naval commanders & defence ministers from Australia, Japan, & the United States gathered in Tokyo to establish enhanced maritime security protocols across regional trade routes. The joint summit focused on intelligence sharing, anti-submarine warfare exercises, & coordinated freedom of navigation patrols aimed at securing vital shipping lanes. Officials highlighted the necessity of unified deterrent capabilities to protect international waters against unauthorized territorial assertions & commercial disruptions. The participants finalized a comprehensive framework for real-time maritime monitoring & rapid-response naval deployments. This strategic initiative reflects growing convergence among Pacific allies to enforce maritime law & secure strategic supply chains against potential coercion.
• European Union Enforces New Cross-Border Infrastructure Safeguards EU ministers finalized a binding regulatory framework designed to harden critical energy grid infrastructure & undersea communication cables against foreign sabotage. The strategic agreement mandates strict cybersecurity protocols, mandatory physical monitoring, & standardized joint threat assessments across all member states. European officials cited recent hybrid warfare threats & physical security vulnerabilities as the primary drivers behind the policy mandate. Under the directive, sovereign member states must designate specific quick-reaction military & civil security units dedicated to critical asset protection. The European Commission will oversee implementation timelines & coordinate real-time threat intelligence distribution among national security agencies to insulate energy grids from external disruption.

Markets

• US Equity closed higher on Friday across all primary indices, driven by strong quarterly enterprise revenue growth & robust labour market data. The Dow advanced +0.83% to 51,655, while the S&P gained +0.59% to finish at 7,812. The Nasdaq added +0.64% to settle at 27,366. Broad market sentiment remained positive at the end of the week as institutional capital flowed into major industrial & software equities, lifting benchmarks near record territory despite ongoing geopolitical friction in external energy markets.
• Asian Equity bourses present mixed price action today, with regional indices tracking disparate domestic catalysts. The Nikkei trades flat at 69,031, down -0.02%, while the Hang Seng trades up +0.17% at 24,254, supported by gains across real estate & liquidity flows. Conversely, the Kospi trades sharply lower at 6,445, declining -2.72% as heavy institutional selling hits semiconductor manufacturers & export-heavy industrial groups. Overall market participation remains cautious amid broad regional currency volatility & geopolitical tension across adjacent trade routes.
• European & UK Equity futures point to a firmer cash market open, driven by positive global sentiment & underlying strength across energy equities, though this may well change in the hours ahead. FTSE futures trade up +0.34% to indicate 8,245. DAX futures trade higher by +0.62% to indicate 19,420, while CAC 40 futures trade up +0.93% to indicate 7,580. Investor sentiment is supported by broad risk-on momentum following solid US sessions, though traders will be digesting Trumps actions & statements over the weekend & the deteriorating situation in Saudi Arabia.
• UK & Eurozone Bond Markets Sovereign bonds enter today's session with yields holding at elevated levels following persistent energy price volatility & shifting regional inflation expectations. Benchmark 10yr Bund yields stand at 3.48%, while 10yr Gilt yields trade at 5.442%. Market focus centres on the steepening posture of sovereign yield curves as fixed-income participants evaluate long-term fiscal supply pressures & monetary policy trajectories across the European continent. In the absence of immediate central bank policy announcements or sovereign debt auctions scheduled for today's session, bond pricing remains strictly anchored to real-time sentiment, spread differentials, & global macro energy trends.
• Currency Snapshot:
  • Sterling trades at 1.324 against the US dollar, down -0.15%, as foreign exchange markets digest shifting interest rate differentials & broader macroeconomic inflation metrics across domestic sectors.
  • Euro trades at 1.121 against the US dollar (+0.10%) & stands at 0.846 relative to Sterling (+0.25%), driven by cross-currency portfolio rebalancing & steady institutional demand across regional sovereign debt instruments.
  • Swiss Franc trades at 0.831 against the US dollar (-0.20%) & stands at 0.931 against the Euro (-0.10%), reflecting modest risk-on capital flows away from traditional safe-haven reserve currencies during early morning trading.

Economic Data (Western European Today)

Govt Bond Auctions (Western European Today)

• There are no relevant government auctions today.

Holidays

• There are no public or national holidays scheduled across the UK, & the Eurozone this week, however, today is a holiday in the USA (Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples' Day) & Spain (National Day of Spain).
  • Eurozone - 1st November (All Saints Day) - Sunday
  • USA - 11th November (Veterans Day)

Pending Deals & Mandates

Euro (€)

• 29th September: AusNet Services Holdings Pty Limited (exp. Issue ratings of Baa1 / BBB+ by Moody’s & S&P), mandated Barclays, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs International & HSBC to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings commencing Wednesday the 30th September. A € benchmark 10.5yr, Reg S senior unsecured transaction being the goal. The European roadshow finished Thursday the 8th in Frankfurt. Post investor work the issuer remains focussed on a 10.5yr, with execution as early as Monday the 12th of October subject to market conditions. AusNet is an Australian diversified energy infrastructure business that owns & operates the primary regulated Victorian electricity transmission network, as well as an electricity distribution network in eastern Victoria & a gas distribution network in western Victoria.

• 21st September: Fairstone Bank of Canada (exp. Issue ratings of Aa1 / AA by Moody’s & DBRS), mandated RBC Capital Markets as Arranger & Sole Structuring Advisor, & BMO Capital Markets, DZ Bank, LBBW, Natixis & RBC Capital Markets as Joint Active Bookrunners for an inaugural 3yr € benchmark soft-bullet Covered Bond. The Covered Bonds are backed by Canadian residential mortgages. This is the borrower's debut covered bond.

• 1st October: The Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt (rated Aa1 by Moody’s & Fitch), mandated BayernLB, CACIB, DZ Bank, ING, JP Morgan, NatWest & NordLB to lead manage its upcoming €500m (wng) inaugural Green, fixed rate Landesschatzanweisung with a medium term maturity. DZ Bank & NatWest are Joint Stability Coordinators The deal will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions.
• 6th October: The City of Dortmund mandated DekaBank & UniCredit to lead manage its upcoming €150m (min) 7yr Stadtanleihe (municipal). The issue will be 0% risk weighted, LCR Level 1. The deal will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions.
• 7th October: The Grand Duchy of Luxembourg (rated Aaa / AAA / AAA by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch), mandated Barclays, BCEE, BGL BNP Paribas, Citi & Credit Agricole CIB as Joint Lead Managers to arrange a series of virtual fixed-income investor calls in relation to its upcoming Inaugural 10yr, € benchmark fixed rate Digitally Native Securities. The Digitally Native Securities will be issued on a distributed ledger technology (DLT) platform operated by LuxCSD S.A. (D7 DLT Platform). The Digitally Native Securities are also eligible for clearance & settlement though Clearstream Banking & Euroclear Bank SA/NV. The transaction is expected to be launched & priced in the near future, subject to market conditions. RegS Bearer, CAC, FCA/ICMA stabilisation.
  • A digitally native securities is a bond, issued, & managed directly on a blockchain or distributed ledger from inception, rather than existing first as a physical certificate & then tokenized latterly. By incorporating smart contracts into their core design, such bonds automate dividend distributions, compliance checks, & settlement, offering near-instant clearing, enhanced transparency, & continuous 24/7 trading without relying on legacy clearinghouses or paper registries.

Sterling (£)

• 6th October: His Majesty’s Treasury (HMT) of United Kingdom has mandated Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Morgan Stanley, NatWest & RBC for its Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) pilot issuance following a competitive procurement process. The transaction is expected to take place by Q1 2027. This follows the appointment of HSBC as the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) supplier in February, & the announcement in July that HSBC & LSEG have signed a memorandum of understanding to deliver a bilateral Digital Securities Deposit link.  

Recent Supply

Key Market Data