• A challenging day for credit markets
• The new issue pipeline going into today was untouched
  • No corporate issuance today in any European IG market
• Reflection of the prevailing mood when short dated secured &/or quasi sovereign trades struggle
  • TD covered in £ & NRW Bank in £ (small & low cover - see below)
• OAT’s experiencing a continued sell-off, notably at the shorter end today as yields rose but the curve flattened
  • 10yr OAT holding above 5.0% at 5.058%
  • OAT / Bunds spread at 10yrs c.171
  • Moody’s ratings review of France tomorrow - post close (Aa3 negative outlook)
  • Fears of contagion looming in conversations
• Bunds rallied with a flattening curve
• Gilts were mixed with a flattening curve
• € swap curve flattened by c.3bps
  • € swap spreads c.2 to 3bp tighter out to 10yrs
•  £ swap curve flattened by c.3.5bps
  • £ swap spreads mostly unchanged
• € IG priced €600m from 1 deal (1 x FIG) via 1 tranche
  • €19.95bn WTD or 105.9% of our ‘Supply Survey’ forecast of €18.83bn
  • CIBC offered a healthy NIC of 19 to secure  size.
    • TD 1.21 X
• Sterling (£) delivered £2.5bn from 2 deals (1 x FIG & 1 x SSA) via 2 tranches
  • £3bn WTD or 267% of our ‘Supply Survey’ forecast of £1.13bn
  • Book multiples struggled
    • TD 1.22 X
    • NRW Bank 1.08 X
• Swiss Franc priced Chf150m from 1 deal (1 x FIG) via 1 tranche
  • TD simultaneously brought a £ covered deal
• There were no trades in the US$ Reg S market
• Today’s “Talking Point” (below) we look at € IG senior unsecured spreads & book multiples across a rating / tenor grid, for each of the last 3 months
• iTraxx 5yr Europe & the iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices are notably wider today at 66.479 (+1.93%), 76.381 (+4.24%) & 130.505 (+5.92%) respectively (as we print & % △ on the day).
  • Sub last traded over 130 on the 31st of March
• Vix Index rose today, currently at 19.22 (16.68 this morning)
• Brent Crude crept higher throughout the session, currently at c.$111.63 (c.$111.15 this morning)
• European equity bourses were all lower today with the FTSE, Dax & CAC 40 all down by -0.14%, -0.75% & -1.34% respectively
  • YTD: FTSE ↑8.12%, Dax ↑3.93% & CAC 40 ↓4.1%
• A breakdown of today’s primary € IG supply is as follows

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA 
  • Avg. cover NA
• FIG
  • Total IG: €600m
  • Avg. tranche size €600m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing  (covered) €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -20 (unsecured) €600m
  • Avg. cover 1.21 X
• SSA
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA
  • Avg. cover NA

• Pipeline:  The European IG pipeline is as follows. 
  • 1 x € Corp
  • 1 x € FIG (1 x Subordinated)
  • 2 x € SSA (1 x Inaugural Green Oct 23rd earliest & 1 x Inaugural DNN)
  • 1 x £ FIG

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on Bloomberg or via stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Talking Point

• Given recent pressure on book-cover ratios within European credit, today we talk about € IG senior unsecured spreads & book multiples across the rating/tenor grid. To avoid dilution we look at each month from August.
• Spreads are widening, particularly prevalent in credits towards the lower end of the IG spectrum. A/A- paper runs ~30-62bps short-end vs ~90-120bps at 10-15yr; BBB/BBB+ is wider still, with October's A- (120bps) & BBB+ (141bps) long-end prints the highest readings across the 3mths, a steepening, deteriorating backdrop for lower-IG duration.
• Until this week (which is diluted somewhat in the month-to-date data) book covers have stayed relatively firm despite widening spreads. Subscription multiples cluster mostly in the 2x-4x range across ratings & tenors, with no visible deterioration month-on-month, deals that print were still getting done comfortably, even as new-issue spreads drift wider.
• The highlight is that this week we have seen multiples drop closer to ~2 X for Corps & between 1 & 2 X for unsecured FIG. 
• October's primary has been notably thin. Far fewer data points than August & September, particularly in AA & short-end BBB, consistent with issuers being selective on timing.
• € IG senior unsecured spreads are widening this month, most acute in long-dated BBB/A- paper.

Euro IG (today)

• Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (exp. Issue ratings of A2 / A- / AA- by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch) brought a € benchmark, Bearer, NGN / Senior, Unsubordinated & Unsecured, Green, Bail-inable, 6NC5 Fixed-to-Floating offering, with IPTs in the area of MS+120. Books came in above €1bn (pre-rec) & the trade sized at €500m (exp) at MS+100, offering investors a solid NIC or 19bps. Books rose to above €1.1bn (pre-rec) & launched for the larger size of €600m at MS+100. Final books tightened to over €725m, good at re-offer.
  • CIBC’s last public € print was also a Senior Bail-inable trade on the 19th of June. This €1.35bn 2yr FRN priced at 3mth€+40 (25bps tighter than IPTs from a €1.5bn book & a NIC of -1). There last Senior Bail-inable prior to that was back on the 27th of Jan last year, when they priced a €600m 3NC2 FRN at 3mth€+62 (23bps tighter than IPTs from a book of €900m).

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Sterling IG (today)

• The Toronto-Dominion Bank (exp. Issue ratings of Aaa / AAA / AAA by Moody’s, Fitch & DBRS) brought a £ benchmark, 3yr FRN Canadian legislative Covered bond, backed by prime Canadian residential mortgages. The Reg S deal came with guidance in the area of SONIA+56. Books were first called at over £900m (inc. £55m JLMs), rising to over £950m (inc. £55m JLMs). The trade launched & priced for £750m at SONIA+53. Final books over £915m (inc. £55m JLMs).
  • TD’s last £ covered print was back on January the 22nd when they priced a £1.25bn 5yr FRN at SONIA+58 (5bps tighter than guidance from a £3bn book). Spreads are wider since then with comps & secondaries suggesting a 3yr on the curve would be at SONIA+47 with zero NIC. For reference TD also printed two covered £ trades last year; a £800m 5yr FRN at SONIA+60, & a £1.25bn 3yr FRN at SONIA+67.

• NRW Bank (rated Aa1 / AA / AAA / AAA by Moody’s, S&P, Fitch & Scope), guaranteed by the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia, announced a senior unsecured, Reg S, Bearer, £ benchmark with a maturity of 31st July 2031. Guidance on the notes was in the area of SONIA MS+40 (equiv. to ~UKT 0.25% July 31 +23.8 area at the time of the announcement). Books were first called in excess of £230m (exc. JLMs). Spread set at SONIA MS+40 & the deal sized at £250m. Final books were in excess of £270m (exc. JLMs). The trade priced early afternoon.
  • This is NRW’s 2nd public £ offering in 2026, having last priced a £350m 4.5yr senior unsecured, fixed rate deal on the 17th of March at MS+37 (flat to guidance from a book of £355m). They only issued the one £ trade in 2025, with a £300m 4.5yr at MS+30, again flat to guidance from a £345m book.

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Swiss Franc IG (today)

• The Toronto-Dominion Bank (exp. Issue ratings of Aaa / AAA by Moody’s & Fitch) brought a 7yr, Chf150m, fixed rate Covered bond with a maturity of the 4th November 2033. The trade priced at SARON MS+42.
  • This is TD’s 2nd public Chf trade in 2026, the prior being a Chf150m, 4NC3 Green offering which priced at SARON MS+70 (1.5bps tighter than guidance). Their prior covered Chf trade was back in January of 2024 when they priced a Chf265m 5yr at MS+37 i(0.5bp wider than the mid-point of guidance). 

Week-to-date volumes:

US$ Reg S (today)

• No issues.

Pending Deals & Mandates

Euros (€)

• 19th October: Gek Terna S.A. (rated Baa3 / BBB- by Moody’s & S&P), the vertically integrated leading infrastructure group in Greece, owning & operating critical concessions in the country, mandated BNP Paribas S.A., JP Morgan S.E. & Mediobanca – Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A as Joint Global Coordinators & Joint Bookrunners along with AXIA, Deutsche Bank, Eurobank S.A., Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank S.A. & Optima bank S.A. as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls starting on Monday the 19th October.

• 19th October: Sumitomo Life Insurance Company (exp. Issue ratings of A- / A- by S&P & Fitch) mandated JP Morgan, BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs, SMBC Nikko & BNP Paribas to arrange a series of fixed income investor conference calls commencing Monday the 19th October. JP Morgan will be coordinating logistics. A potential € benchmark, Reg S, Fixed to fixed, step-up 30NC10 callable subordinated bond offering will follow, subject to market conditions.

• 16th October: The Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg (rated AAA / AAA by Fitch & Scope) mandated DZ Bank as ESG Structuring Coordinator & Crédit Agricole CIB, Danske Bank, DekaBank, Deutsche Bank & DZ Bank as Joint Lead Managers for its upcoming inaugural €500m (wng) 10yr Green senior unsecured offering in LSA format. The transaction will be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions & after extensive investor calls taking place between Monday the 19th of October & Thursday the 22nd of October.
• 21st October: European Stability Mechanism (ESM) (rated Aaa / AAA / AAA / AAA by Moody’s, S&P, Fitch & Scope) appointed DZ Bank & Société Generale as Digital Advisory Banks & mandated DZ Bank, HSBC, Santander & Société Generale to joint lead manage an inaugural Digitally Native Note transaction maturing in April 2030. No further group. The Digitally Native Notes will be issued on a distributed ledger technology (DLT) platform operated by Clearstream Europe AG (D7 DLT Platform) & in the context of the Eurosystem's Pontes initiative. The Digitally Native Notes are eligible for clearance & settlement through all traditional Clearstream Banking & Euroclear Bank SA/NV rails. A € benchmark transaction will follow subject to market conditions.

Sterling (£)

• 20th October: BTG Pactual Europe SA (rated Baa3 by Moody’s) mandated BMO Capital Markets as Sole Global Coordinator & Joint Lead Manager, alongside Natixis & Banco BTG Pactual S.A. – Cayman Branch as Joint Lead Managers, for its upcoming inaugural £250m (wng) 3yr Senior transaction. The Issuer is available for one-on-one calls upon request on the 20th & 21st of October. The transaction is expected to launch in the near future, subject to market conditions.

Transaction Details

PRICED: The Toronto-Dominion Bank CHF 150m 7yr CB; SARON MS+42bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - General

Reoffer: 7yr: SARON MS+42bp / 100 / 1.055%
Benchmark: 7yr: Govt.+62bp

Launched: 7yr: CHF 150m @ SARON MS+42bp

• Issuer: The Toronto-Dominion Bank
• Ticker: TD
• Guarantor: TD Covered Bond (Legislative) Guarantor LP
• Guarantor Domicile: Canada
• Format: Covered Bonds
• Status: Covered Bonds. Direct, unconditional, unsubordinated and unsecured obligations, ranking pari passu with all deposit liabilities of the Issuer
• Type: Public CHF fixed-rate Covered Bonds
• Instrument Rating (exp): Aaa/AAA (Stable/Stable) (Moody's/Fitch)
• Issue Size (in mm): CHF 150mm
• Coupon: 1.055% p.a., short 1st. coupon
• Maturity: 6 years 359 days (05-Nov-26 until 04-Nov-33)
• Issue Price: 100
• Spread/Yield: SARON MS+42 // YTM 1.055% // Govt.+62
• ISIN / Security Number: CH1609605386 / 160960538
• Lead Manager(s): UBS, TD Securities (joint lead no books)
• SNB Repo-eligibility: At the discretion of the SNB, expected yes
• Documentation: Off TD´s CAD 100bn Global Legislative Covered Bond Programme prospectus dated 23-Jun-26 ("Base Prospectus")
• FinSA Prospectus: Delayed prospectus approval, in accordance with art. 51 FinSA
• Governing Law: The Covered Bonds and all related contractual documentation will be governed, by and construed in accordance with, the laws of the Province of Ontario, Canada and the federal laws of Canada applicable therein
• Covenants: PP
• SIX Listing: 03-Nov-26
• Denomination: CHF 5000 and multiples thereof
• Target Market: Manufacturer target market (MiFID II product governance) is eligible counterparties and professional clients only (all distribution channels). Prohibition of Sales to Retail Investors restrictions apply
• Sales Restrictions: As set out in the Base Prospectus. In particular U.S.A., U.S. persons, European Economic Area, United Kingdom, Canada (Canadian sales not permitted), Hong Kong, France, Italy, Japan, Singapore, the Peoples Republic of China, Belgium, Australia, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands.
• Retail Restrictions:
  • EEA & UK domiciled: Applicable
  • Other: Subject to applicable regulations and restrictions

PRICED: The Toronto-Dominion Bank £750m 3yr CB; SONIA+53bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - General

Reoffer: 3yr: SONIA+53bp / 100

3yr: Final Books >£915m+ (incl. £55m JLM interest). Peak book in excess of £950m+ (incl. £55m JLM interest)

Launched: 3yr: £750m @ SONIA+53bp - In excess of £950m+ (incl. £55m JLM interest)
Book Update: Books over £900m+ (incl. £55m JLM interest)
Guidance: 3yr: SONIA+56a

• Issuer: The Toronto-Dominion Bank
• LEI: PT3QB789TSUIDF371261
• Ticker: TD
• Format: Reg S (Registered, NSS)
• Type: Canadian legislative covered bond, backed by prime Canadian residential mortgages
• Guarantor: TD Covered Bond (Legislative) Guarantor Limited Partnership
• Expected Issue Ratings: Aaa/AAA/AAA by Moody's, Fitch and DBRS
• Distribution: As set out in the Prospectus, Regulation S, Category 2, TEFRA not applicable, Not Rule 144A eligible. Not to be offered, sold or otherwise made available in the UK in a principal amount of less than GBP 100,000. Not to be offered, sold or distributed, directly or indirectly, in Canada or to or for the benefit of any resident in Canada. Singapore Sales to Institutional Investors and Accredited Investors only
• Size: GBP 750,000,000
• Pricing Date: 22-Oct-26
• Settlement Date: 29-Oct-26 (T+5)
• Maturity Date: 29-Oct-29 (soft bullet)
• Initial Coupon: Floating, SONIA + 53bps, Compounded Daily SONIA, 5 LBD observation lag, Quarterly, Act/365 (Fixed)
• Reoffer: 100%
• UK MiFIR / MiFID II Target Market: Professional investors and ECPs only target market (all distribution channels)
• Denomination: GBP100,000 and integral multiples of GBP1,000 in excess thereof
• Governing Law: Province of Ontario and Canada
• Listing: London Stock Exchange (Main Market)
• Clearing: Euroclear / Clearstream
• Documentation: The Issuer’s CAD 100bn Global Legislative Covered Bond Programme prospectus dated 23-Jun-26, as supplemented (the "Prospectus")
• Joint Lead Managers: Barclays, Lloyds, Nomura, Standard Chartered Bank, TD Securities (B&D)
• Fee: Joint Lead Managers will be paid a fee in connection to the transaction
• ISIN: XS3553896773
• Timing: PRICED / TOE: 12:40 LDN / FTT 13:00 LDN
• Advertisement: The Prospectus and the Final Terms when published, available on https://www.td.com/ca/en/about-td/for-investors/investor-relations/fixed-income-investor/debt-information/td-global-legislative-covered-bond-programme

Covered FRN
3yr (Oct 2029) @ SONIA+56a

Implied Spread for fresh 3yr @ SONIA+47
Priced at SONIA+53
NIC of +6

PRICED: NRW.BANK £250m 5yr Sr Unsec; SONIA MS+40bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - SSA

Reoffer: 5yr: SONIA MS+40bp / 99.809 / 5.177% ann. / 5.112% s/a
Benchmark: 5yr: UKT 0.250% 31-Jul-31 @ 80.525 (Mid) / 80.505 (Bid) - G+23.9bp (HR 113%)

Tranche 1 (5yr): Final Books in excess of £270m (excl JLM)

Launched: 5yr: £250m @ SONIA MS+40bp - Books in excess of £230m (excl JLM)
Spread set at: 5yr: SONIA MS+40bp
Guidance: 5yr: SONIA MS+40a

• Issuer: NRW.BANK (NRWBK)
• LEI: 52990002O5KK6XOGJ020
• Guarantor: Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW)
• Rating: Aa1/AA/AAA/AAA (all stable)
• Status: Senior unsecured, 0% RW, HQLA/Level 1
• Format: Reg S, Bearer
• Size: £250m
• Maturity: 31-Jul-31
• Settlement: 29-Oct-26 (T+5)
• Coupon: 5.125% Fixed, Annual, Act/Act, short first
• Spread: SONIA MS (A, A/365) +40bps
• BMK: +23.9bps vs UKT 0.250% Jul-31 @ 80.525 (Mid) / 80.505 (Bid)
• Reoffer: 99.809 / 5.177% ann. / 5.112% s/a
• Denoms: £200k + £200k
• Listing: Luxembourg
• Law: German
• Docs: Issuer's Debt Issuance Programme
• Bookrunners: DB / Nomura (B&D/DM) / Santander
• ISIN: XS3553893671
• Target Market: The manufacturer target markets (MiFID II and UK MiFIR product governance) as assessed by the lead managers are Professional / Eligible Counterparties (all distribution channels)
• Advertisement: This communication is an advertisement for the purposes of Regulation (EU) 2017/1129 and underlying legislation. It is not a prospectus. The prospectus is available at https://www.bourse.lu/programme/Programme-NRWBank/12999
• Timing: TOE 13:11 UKT, FTT immediately.
• HR: 113% vs UKT 0 ¼ 31-Jul-31
• Hedge deadline: 13:00 UKT

PRICED: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce €600m 6NC5 Green Sr Unsec; MS+100bp

IGC European Market: Deal Flow - General

Reoffer: 6NC5: MS+100bp / 99.692 / 4.445%
Benchmark: 6NC5: OBL 2.9% 10-Aug-31 #194 @ 98.744 bid / B+127.1bp / HR 98%

6NC5 Green: Final Books €725m+ (good at re-offer). Peak book above €1.1bn+ (pre-rec)

Launched: 6NC5: €600m @ MS+100bp - Books above €1.1bn+ (pre-rec)
Spread set at: 6NC5: MS+100bp - Books above €1bn+ (pre-rec)
IPTs: 6NC5: MS+120a

• Issuer: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (the "Issuer")
• LEI: 2IGI19DL77OX0HC3ZE78
• Expected Issue Ratings: A2/A-/AA- (Moody's/S&P/Fitch)
• Form / Status of Notes: Bearer, NGN / Senior, Unsubordinated and Unsecured Bail-inable Notes
• Size: €600m
• Tenor: 6NC5 Fixed-to-Floating
• Settlement Date: 29-Oct-26 (T+5)
• Maturity Date: 29-Oct-32
• Optional Redemption Date: 29-Oct-31
• Coupon: 4.375% per annum, ACT/ACT ICMA, Following, until the Optional Redemption Date. If not redeemed, quarterly coupon of 3mE + 100bps, ACT/360, Modified Following, until the Maturity Date
• Re-offer: MS+100bps / 99.692 / 4.445%
• Benchmark: OBL 2.9% 10-Aug-31 #194 (98.744 bid) +127.1bps / HR 98%
• Listing / Denomination: Regulated Market of the Luxembourg Stock Exchange / €100k + €1k in excess thereof up to (and including) €199k
• Business Days: London, New York, Toronto and T2
• Clearing Systems: Euroclear and Clearstream, Luxembourg
• Governing Law: The laws of the Province of Ontario and the federal laws of Canada applicable therein
• Target Market: Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties (EU MiFID and UK MiFIR Product Governance) – all distribution channels / No EEA PRIIPs KID or UK CCI disclosure document required by the FCA Product Disclosure Sourcebook (DISC) as not available to EU or UK retail investors
• Bail-In: The Notes are bail-inable Notes and subject to conversion in whole or in part—by means of a transaction or series of transactions and in one or more steps—into common shares of the Bank or any of its affiliates under subsection 39.2(2.3) of the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation Act (the "CDIC Act") and to variation or extinguishment in consequence, and subject to the application of the laws of the Province of Ontario and the federal laws of Canada applicable therein in respect of the operation of the CDIC Act with respect to the Notes. The Notes do not constitute deposits that are insured under the CDIC Act. For a description of the Canadian bank resolution powers and related risk factors attaching to investment in the Notes, see information under the headings "Status of Notes—Bail-inable Notes" and "Risk Factors" in the Base Prospectus.
• Documentation: Issued under CIBC's US$40,000,000,000 Note Issuance Programme described in the prospectus dated 26-Jun-26 (the "Base Prospectus") and as completed by the Final Terms
• Selling Restrictions: Regulation S compliance Category 2, TEFRA D, not Rule 144A eligible. No sales to retail in EEA or UK. Singapore Sales to Institutional Investors and Accredited Investors only. No Sales into Italy
• Joint Lead Managers: CIBC Capital Markets, Crédit Agricole CIB (B&D), DZ BANK, Société Générale Corporate & Investment Banking, UBS Investment Bank and UniCredit
• ISIN / Common Code: XS3552745518 / 355274551
• Timing: Priced, ToE 14:20 UKT / 15:20 CET / FTT 15:00 UKT / 16:00 CET
• UoP: The net proceeds from the issue of the Notes are intended, as of the Issue Date, to be applied by the Issuer to the financing and/or refinancing, in whole or in part, of loans, investments or internal or external projects that fall within the scope of the Eligibility Criteria as outlined in the section of the Base Prospectus titled "Use of Proceeds – Green Bonds, Social Bond or Sustainability Bonds" and such Notes will therefore be Green Bonds.
• Advertisement: This communication is an advertisement and not a prospectus for the purposes of Regulation (EU) 2017/1129 and underlying legislation. The Base Prospectus dated 26-Jun-26, and the Final Terms, when published, will also be available via: https://www.cibc.com/en/about-cibc/investor-relations/debt-information/note-issuance-programme.html
• Stabilisation: FCA/ICMA

Fixed to Floating Green

NC5yr (Oct 2031) @ MS+120a

Implied Spread for fresh NC5yr @ MS+81
Priced at MS+100
NIC of +19

To view the LIVE / REAL TIME European IG pipeline please click here.

Details correct at time of posting