• The primary € market showed signs of life with a refreshing brace of Heineken offerings
• Broad credit & rates markets today saw low trading volumes 
• Supply survey anticipates a busy start next week, with some corps coming out of black out. 
• Today’s € IG issue reemphasised that investor demand remains solid for appropriate credits
• Market backdrop would seem to be constructive now, for next week
  • Credit indices & oil traded in a tight range all week
  • Equity markets also ended the week broadly in green
• Many syndicates suggested that we might see significant € issuance with Corp issuance headlining - see our Weekly Supply Survey below
• UK & most European govie yields drifted lower during the session with Bunds, OATs & Gilts prices lower on the day
• Bunds posted decent gains  with the curve flattening by c.1bp 
• OAT’s saw another weak session across the curve between c.3bps to c.6bps across the curve
  • OAT vs Bund 10yr spread widened, currently trading at +165.8bps
• Gilt yields traded in a tight 1bp range across the curve
• € swap curve slightly steeper once again c.-0.5bps
  • € swap spreads marginally wider
• £ swap curve flattened by c.1bp
  • £ swap spreads tighter by c.2bps
• € IG delivered €1bn from 1 deal (1 x Corp) via 2 tranches
  • €17.55bn WTD or 90.6% of our ‘Supply Survey’ forecast of €19.38bn

Today was a zero print session for Sterling (£), Chf & US$ Reg S

• Today’s “Talking Point” (below) looks back at € IG supply in the first week of November over the last five years, ahead of next week’s kick-off.
• iTraxx 5yr Europe & the iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices drifted wider currently trading at 64.990 (+2.77%), 73.772 (+3.16%) & 123.822 (+3.91%) respectively (as we print & % △ on the day).
• Vix Index ended the day on an uptick currently at 19.58 (17.20this morning)
• Brent Crude edged higher currently at c.$117.58 (c.$116.43this morning)
• European equity bourses were broadly higher with the FTSE & CAC up by +0.04% & +0.02% respectively & Dax down -0.68%
  • YTD: FTSE ↑8.01%, Dax ↑5.61% & CAC 40 ↓2.19%
• A breakdown of today’s primary € IG supply is as follows

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €1bn
  • Avg. tranche size €500m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -31
  • Avg. cover 5.1 X
• FIG
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing  (covered) €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing  (unsecured) €0
  • Avg. cover NA
• SSA
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA
  • Avg. cover NA

• Pipeline:  The European IG pipeline is as follows. 
  • 1 x € Corp
  • 2 x € FIG (1 x Subordinated 1x RY Green)

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on Bloomberg or via stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Supply Survey Results for Next Week

• Thank you to all who participated in our ‘Weekly Supply Survey’. Forecasts indicate €18.25bn of primary IG supply, broken down as follows.

Talking Point

• With November starting on Monday, we look at how the first week of the month has played out for € IG supply since 2021.
• Over the past five years the first week of November has averaged €20.4bn, but the range is wide: from just €4.75bn in 2024 to a record €52bn last year. 2025 was an outlier on every measure. €52bn priced across 59 tranches from 36 issuers. That is more than double the previous high (€24.75bn in 2023) and over 4x the 2021–2024 average (€12.5bn). Corporates led with 60.1% (€31.25bn), helped by post-earnings Reverse Yankees: Alphabet’s €6.5bn 6-tranche deal (incl. a 39yr), BMS €5bn & Orange €5bn. Demand kept up: average cover was 3.39x, books averaged €3.1bn & deals tightened c.29bps from IPT.
• 2024 shows the other side. With the US election & a Fed decision in the same week, supply fell to €4.75bn. FIG made up 89.5% of it, while Corp printed just €0.5bn & SSA nothing. Across the five years FIG has been the steady contributor, while Corp & SSA have moved with the macro calendar.
• This year the US midterms on 3rd November are the main event risk, but the ECB is behind us & Q3 earnings blackouts are lifting. APA Infrastructure’s investor calls also start on 2nd November. We expect a busy week above the 5yr average, though a repeat of last year’s €52bn looks a stretch.

Euro IG (today)

• Heineken NV (exp. Issue rating A3 by Moody’s) mandated Goldman Sachs, ING, IMI-Intesa Sanpaolo, Santander & SG as Joint Lead Managers for a senior unsecured €1bn (wng) dual-tranche 3yr & 7yr (each €500m). IPTs were in the area of MS+80a & MS+120a respectively. Final terms were set with spreads at MS+50 & MS+88 respectively, backed by combined books in excess of 5.1bn (exc. JLM, pre-rec). 
  • The issuer tapped the € market in February 2026 with €1.1bn dual-tranche. The 8yr priced at MS+80 (from IPTs of MS+115a) & the 12yr priced at MS+103 (from IPTs of MS+135a). Final book sizes were €1.15bn & €1.1bn & peak books were €2.7bn & €2bn respectively. 

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Sterling IG (today)

• No issues.

Week-to-date volumes:

Year-to-date volumes:

Swiss Franc IG (today)

• No issues.

Week-to-date volumes:

US$ Reg S (today)

• No issues.

Pending Deals & Mandates

Euros (€)

• 28th October: APA Infrastructure Limited (rated Baa2 / BBB by Moody’s & S&P), guaranteed by APA Group Limited, mandated BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, HSBC & J.P. Morgan as Joint Lead Managers to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings & calls commencing Monday, 2nd November. A Benchmark 10yr € RegS senior unsecured transaction may follow, subject to market conditions.

• 19th October: Sumitomo Life Insurance Company (exp. Issue ratings of A- / A- by S&P & Fitch) mandated JP Morgan, BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs, SMBC Nikko & BNP Paribas to arrange a series of fixed income investor conference calls commencing Monday the 19th October. JP Morgan will be coordinating logistics. A potential € benchmark, Reg S, Fixed to fixed, step-up 30NC10 callable subordinated bond offering will follow, subject to market conditions.
• 30th October: Equinix Inc. (rated Baa1 / BBB+ / BBB+ by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch) mandated BNP Paribas, BofA, ING, JP Morgan, Santander & Standard Chartered to arrange a series of fixed income investor conference calls commencing Monday the 2nd November. JP Morgan will be coordinating logistics. A potential € benchmark, SEC-registered, Green multi-tranche with 2yr (Fix or FRN), long 6yr, 9yr & 12yr bond offering will follow, subject to market conditions.

Transaction Details

PRICED: Heineken NV €1bn 3yr & 7yr Sr Unsec; MS+50bp & MS+88bp

Reoffer: 3yr: MS+50bp / 99.558 / 3.909% 7yr: MS+88bp / 99.02 / 4.29%
Benchmark: 3yr: OBL 2.5% Oct-29 @ 98.39 / B+82.8bp / HR 101% 7yr: DBR 2.6% Aug-33 @ 96.34 / B+108.2bp / HR 100%

Tranche 1 (3yr): Final Books >€2.5bn
Tranche 2 (7yr): Final Books >€2.6bn. Peak book >€2.8bn

Launched:
3yr: €500m @ MS+50bp - Books >€2.3bn
7yr: €500m @ MS+88bp - Books >€2.8bn
IPTs: 3yr: MS+80a 7yr: MS+120a

• Issuer: Heineken NV
• Ticker: HEIANA
• Country: NL
• Issuer LEI: 724500K5PTPSST86UQ23
• Issuer Ratings: A3 (stable) / BBB+ (positive) (Moody's/S&P)
• Expected Issue Ratings: A3 (Moody's)
• Format: Senior, unsecured, Reg S, Bearer, NGN
• Settlement Date: 10-Nov-26 (T+7)
• Tenor:
  • 3yr: 3-year Fixed
  • 7yr: 7-year Fixed
• Maturity Date:
  • 3yr: 10-Nov-29
  • 7yr: 10-Nov-33
• Size:
  • 3yr: EUR 500mn
  • 7yr: EUR 500mn
• Coupon:
  • 3yr: 3.75% Ann, ACT/ACT (ICMA)
  • 7yr: 4.125% Ann, ACT/ACT (ICMA)
• Reoffer:
  • 3yr: MS+50bp 99.558%, 3.909% yld, B+82.8bp
  • 7yr: MS+88bp, 99.020%, 4.29% Yld, B+108.2bp
• Benchmark:
  • 3yr: OBL 2.5% Oct-29 @98.39%, HR101%
  • 7yr: DBR2.6% Aug-33 @96.34%, HR100%
• Calls:
  • 3yr: 1-month, MWC @ B+15bp
  • 7yr: 3-month, MWC @ B+20bp
• ISIN:
  • 3yr: XS3562283914
  • 7yr: XS3562284136
• B&D: Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, Santander
• Issuer Calls: MWC, Clean-up Call (75%), Tax Call (at Par), Par call
• Use of Proceeds: General corporate purposes
• Docs/Denoms: EMTN Programme / Luxembourg Listing (regulated market) / Dutch Law / Change of Control (Put, at Par) / €100k+1k
• Active Bookrunners: Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, ING, IMI-Intesa Sanpaolo, Santander, Societe Generale
• Target Market: The manufacturer target market (MiFID II / UK MiFIR product governance) is eligible counterparties and professional clients only (all distribution channels). No EEA PRIIPs key information document (KID) or UK DISC disclosure document has been prepared as the notes will not be made available to retail investors in the EEA or the UK
• Selling restrictions: As per the Base Prospectus dated 2-Apr-26
• Clearing: Clearstream / Euroclear
• Timing: TOE 14:51 UK / FTT 15:20 UK (3yr), TOE 14:48 UK / FTT 15:20 UK (7yr)

To view the LIVE / REAL TIME European IG pipeline please click here.

Details correct at time of posting