• Fitch announced a negative outlook for France after the close on Friday
  • OAT / Bund spread set to open at +168.8
• October € IG market delivered €76.67bn from 73 deals via 95 tranches
  • Corp: €26.37bn from 24 deals via 41 tranches
  • FIG: €23.6bn from 32 deals via 35 tranches
  • SSA: €26.7bn from 17 deals via 19 tranches
• Microsoft printed a 10-tranche $25bn issue in the US on Thursday. A € offering was rumoured to follow.
• Looking forward we have the Bank of England rate announcement on Thursday
  • Probability of rate hike sits at 96.7%
• Somewhat mixed signals at the open, yet investor caution remains, with elevated risk premiums likely to persist until greater clarity
• € IG priced €1bn from 1 deal (1 x Corp) via 2 tranches
• €17.55bn total last week or 90.6% of our ‘Supply Survey’ forecast of €19.38bn
• This week's forecast (below) eyes €24.63bn - the largest in 3 weeks
• Friday was a zero print session for the Sterling (£), Swiss Franc & US$ Reg S markets
• Brent Crude has seen sharp falls this morning on reports that Trump prefers a diplomatic solution in Iran, currently trading at c.$110.18 (c.$116.43 this time on Friday)
  • The fall this morning removes some inflation risk premium but this is unlikely to eliminate the sovereign & political headwinds in Europe this morning
• The VIX edged higher, currently set to open at 19.42 (17.2 this time on Friday)
• iTraxx 5yr Europe & iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices all pushed wider on Friday & are set to open at 65.873 (+4.16%), 74.767 (+4.55%)  & 126.501 (+6.16%) respectively (% △ to Fridays open).
• Pipeline:  The European IG pipeline is as follows. 
  • 1 x € Corp
  • 2 x € FIG (1 x Subordinated 1x RY Green)

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on Bloomberg or via stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Primary IG Supply Survey Results for This Week

Key € IG Supply Stats for Last Week

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €13.6bn
  • Avg. tranche size €756m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -26.6
  • Avg. cover 3.38 X
• FIG
  • Total IG: €1.8bn
  • Avg. tranche size €600m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -6.0  (covered) €1.05bn
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -11.5 (unsecured) €750m
  • Avg. cover 2.65 X 
• SSA
  • Total IG: €2.15bn
  • Avg. tranche size €717m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -2.0
  • Avg. cover 2.26 X

Geo-Political News

• Brent Crude Prices Fall Sharply Brent has staged a sharp retreat down c.3.0% this morning following a sudden shift in diplomatic rhetoric. WTI also slid sharply under $101. The catalyst was an Axios report indicating that Trump urged Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to prioritize diplomatic overtures with Iran ahead of the midterm elections before considering renewed strikes.
• Early Warning Alert Apps Targeted in Concurrent Cyber Attacks Both Ukraine & Russia have reported significant cyber intrusions into their respective civilian mobile emergency warning systems. Ukrainian authorities confirmed that their national air defence notification platform was compromised, resulting in false public broad-scale alarms detailing chemical & radiation threats. Simultaneously, Russian state emergency services acknowledged a widespread system breach targeting their domestic early warning application, which pushed unverified panic alerts to citizens across multiple administrative regions. Military cyber defence agencies in Kyiv & Moscow are conducting diagnostic evaluations to restore technical integrity to the affected networks. The concurrent compromise of dual alert systems undermines public trust in civil protection systems, heightening risks of widespread civilian panic during genuine tactical missile or drone strikes.
• US Midterm Elections Campaigning Reaches Final Day Before Voting Campaigns across the US are completing their final rallies as the country prepares for tomorrow's pivotal midterm elections. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives & one-third of the Senate seats are at stake in a contest expected to determine executive legislative leverage for the remainder of the presidential term. High-stakes battlegrounds in Pennsylvania, Georgia, & Michigan have seen intensive resource allocation from both political parties seeking to secure marginal congressional majorities. Election officials nationwide have deployed augmented physical security measures & cyber defences around polling stations & vote tallying centres to defend against potential operational disruption. Federal law enforcement agencies remain on elevated alert to mitigate post-vote civil unrest & foreign disinformation campaigns aimed at disrupting democratic procedures. International financial markets & foreign governments are closely monitoring the political outcome, given its direct bearing on future trade policies, foreign aid & military actions.
• Persian Gulf Security Braces Ahead of Potential Escalation Persian Gulf states have elevated operational readiness amid fears that the US may launch direct military strikes against Iran following tomorrow's midterms - though this mornings reports contradict the need for such a stance. Iranian political & military leaders issued stern declarations warning that any external aggression would trigger immediate, unconstrained retaliatory strikes against foreign naval assets, regional military bases, & commercial maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic channels mediated via Qatar have struggled to establish any viable de-escalation, as regional security partners prepare for potential collateral disruptions to energy infrastructure. Oil exporters across the Gulf region are taking precautionary steps to protect key export terminals & offshore facilities. Trump had placed a pause on military activity until ‘after the midterms’.
• Houthi Forces Escalate Drone & Missile Strikes on Saudi Arabia Over the weekend, Houthi military forces in Yemen executed a series of coordinated drone & ballistic missile attacks targeting strategic infrastructure within Saudi Arabia. Saudi air defence networks successfully intercepted hostile unmanned aerial attacks directed at key installations in the southern regions & near the capital. Military commanders from the Saudi-led coalition responded by conducting targeted aerial strikes against Houthi launch platforms & munitions depots located in northern Yemen. The renewed offensive breaks a period of relative calm, raising security concerns for critical energy pipelines & commercial transport corridors across the Arabian Peninsula. Regional defence observers note that the persistent operational range of Houthi weaponry highlights ongoing supply chain vulnerabilities in the Red Sea corridor.
• Massive Capital Outflows Hits Crypto Platform Following Security Breach Global cryptocurrency exchange Binance recorded massive net capital outflows totalling $3.6bn over the weekend following a severe security breach that compromised $6.3bn in digital assets. Corporate executives confirmed that while user account balances remain secured via internal emergency funds, institutional & retail investors engaged in rapid capital redemptions due to heightened counterparty risk concerns. Global financial regulators have intensified oversight of the platform's liquidity reserves, liquidity management, & operational stability as the firm works to restore normal trading parameters. Independent cybersecurity specialists are assisting federal investigators to identify the attack vectors used to breach the platform's cold & hot wallet protocols. North Korea remains the suspected source of the attack.
• Western Sahara UN Peacekeeping Mission Officially Concludes Operations The UN Security Council has formally concluded its decades-long peacekeeping mandate in Western Sahara, initiating a complete withdrawal of international personnel from the region. The resolution's expiration marks a fundamental shift in diplomatic oversight for the disputed territory, leaving regional governance under direct administrative control of Moroccan authorities. UN humanitarian agencies plan to maintain limited independent monitoring of civilian conditions, while regional trade groups evaluate the long-term impact on trans-Saharan commercial routes.
• Bulgarian Presidential Election Yields Swift Electoral Decision Preliminary official ballot counts from Bulgaria's presidential election indicate a decisive electoral victory for candidate Iliana Iotova following Sunday's national vote. National election commissioners reported smooth administrative operations across voting precincts, with voter participation reflecting key domestic priorities surrounding economic stabilization & regional security Integration. The official certification of total ballot tallies is expected later this week following routine judicial validation of regional tally sheets.

Markets

• US Equity bourses posted broad losses during Friday's session as sharp selling in major tech names weighed heavily on risk appetite. The Dow dropped 572 points to close at 51,770 (-1.09%), while the S&P fell 140 points to end at 7,580 (-1.82%). The Nasdaq led the downside decline, falling 748 points to finish at 25,437 (-2.86%). Equity sentiment deteriorated following severe cyber disruption reports in the digital asset sector, sparking broad risk-off sector rotation out of high-beta growth stocks & major AI players.
• Asian Equity bourses are presenting a slightly mixed picture today. The Nikkei trades down slightly at 63,249 (-0.06%) as export-oriented sectors face modest selling pressure. Conversely, the Hang Seng is up at 23,438 (+0.62%) driven by strength in regional commerce stocks. The Kospi is outperforming its regional peers, advancing sharply to stand at 5,891 (+2.81%) on strong bids across tech manufacturing shares. Broad regional price action reflects distinct sector-specific rebalancing across primary Asian capital markets.
• European & UK Equity futures indicate a mixed opening across key regional bourses. FTSE futures trade lower with opening indications pointing to a slight retreat of -0.06%. Meanwhile, DAX futures signal modest positive momentum ahead of the bell, rising +0.30% in early trade. CAC 40 futures trade virtually flat with a minor downward bias, indicating an opening change of -0.01%. Price discovery across Europe remains focused on individual asset valuations & selective equity repositioning.
• UK & Eurozone Bond Markets Eurozone sovereign paper & Gilts face largely neutral trading conditions today, with price discovery constrained by a clear lack of any significant economic data releases, or government debt auctions across key European jurisdictions. Yields across European fixed-income bourses are expected to drift sideways, maintaining current structural levels across sovereign benchmarks. Currently, the 10yr Bund trades at a yield of 3.321%, reflecting a slight daily drop from Fridays 3.371% & holding near the 3.345% level recorded a week ago. Meanwhile, the 10yr OATs trades at 4.969%, rising from 4.915% on Friday, while hovering below the 5.018% this time last week - Fitch announced a negative outlook on France after the close on Friday. In the UK, the 10yr Gilt trades at 5.283%, marking a slight retreat from Friday's 5.321% print & easing from 5.359% a week ago.
• Currency Snapshot:
  • Sterling trades at 1.340 against the US dollar this morning, marking a modest advance from the prior session close of 1.391 (+0.07%). The British currency continues its broader upward trend when compared to last week, rising firm from its previous level of 1.331.
  • Euro shows slight positive momentum against the US dollar, trading up at 1.118 compared to its prior session close of 1.116 (+0.22%). This extension reinforces a modest strengthening trend for the single currency compared to last week, when it traded at 1.113.
  • Swiss Franc displays minor firming sentiment, with the US dollar trading down against it at 0.823 relative to the prior close of 0.825 (-0.21%). The Swiss currency has demonstrated steady strengthening compared to last week, when the pair traded higher at 0.829.

Economic Data (Western European Today)

Govt Bond Auctions (Western European Today)

• None.

Holidays

• There are no public or national holidays scheduled across the UK, & the Eurozone for the remainder of this week. The next holidays scheduled are as follows.
  • UK - Next: Christmas Day (25 December) & Boxing Day (26 December).
  • USA - Next: 11th November (Veterans Day) & 26th November (Thanksgiving)

Pending Deals & Mandates

Euros (€)

• 28th October: APA Infrastructure Limited (rated Baa2 / BBB by Moody’s & S&P), guaranteed by APA Group Limited, mandated BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, HSBC & J.P. Morgan as Joint Lead Managers to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings & calls commencing Monday, 2nd November. A Benchmark 10yr € RegS senior unsecured transaction may follow, subject to market conditions.

• 19th October: Sumitomo Life Insurance Company (exp. Issue ratings of A- / A- by S&P & Fitch) mandated JP Morgan, BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs, SMBC Nikko & BNP Paribas to arrange a series of fixed income investor conference calls commencing Monday the 19th October. JP Morgan will be coordinating logistics. A potential € benchmark, Reg S, Fixed to fixed, step-up 30NC10 callable subordinated bond offering will follow, subject to market conditions.
• 30th October: Equinix Inc. (rated Baa1 / BBB+ / BBB+ by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch) mandated BNP Paribas, BofA, ING, JP Morgan, Santander & Standard Chartered to arrange a series of fixed income investor conference calls commencing Monday the 2nd November. JP Morgan will be coordinating logistics. A potential € benchmark, SEC-registered, Green multi-tranche with 2yr (Fix or FRN), long 6yr, 9yr & 12yr bond offering will follow, subject to market conditions.

Recent Supply

Key Market Data