• While there is pressure on equities, European bond indices tightened yesterday & Brent is holding around $106 (it was $117.88 on Friday)
  • US midterms unlikely to distract primary in Europe
  • Window of issuance, with borrowers mindful there are 2 to 3 meaningful weeks of 2026 left 
• Bunds, OATs & Gilts all rallied yesterday 
  • OAT / Bund 10yr spread at +160.7
• € IG primary is set to be active today & tomorrow on both a solid pipeline & the continued expectation of a front loaded week
• Yesterday was the largest single day for € IG primary (€10.15bn) in nearly 3 weeks
  • €11.5bn on Tuesday the 13th of October - post the US Columbus Day holiday
• Reference yesterday's ‘End of Day’ for detailed analysis of supply.
• Reverse Yankee / Mega cap AI players dominated yesterday
  • Alphabet Inc. priced a €6bn, 7-tranche deal with a ‘final’ book in excess of €16.1bn (2.64 X) & an avg. NIC 18.9bps
  • Meta announced investor calls continuing today for a potential SEC Registered US$ & € offering
    • 6-tranche € expected tomorrow
• L4yr, L6yr, L8yr, 12yr, 18yr & 38yr
• € IG priced €10.15bn from 3 deals (2 x Corp & 1 x FIG) via 11 tranches
  • €10.15bn WTD or 41.2% of our ‘Supply Survey’ forecast of €24.63bn
• Sterling (£) delivered £1.75bn from 2 deals (2 x FIG) via 2 tranches
• Swiss Franc priced Chf800m from 1 deal (1 x Corp) via 4 tranches
• Zero trades in the US$ Reg S market
• Brent Crude continued to fall on hopes of potential peaceful resolution between the US & Iran, currently trading at c.$106.39 (c.$110.18 this time yesterday)
• The VIX edged to a near 5 mth high, currently set to open at 21.15 (19.42 this time yesterday)
• iTraxx 5yr Europe & iTraxx Senior & Sub financial indices all tightened & are set to open at 64.321 (-2.35%), 73.288 (-1.98%)  & 124.005 (-1.97%) respectively (% △ to yesterday).
• Pipeline:  The European IG pipeline is as follows. 
  • 2 x € Corp (1 x 6-tranche)
  • 2 x € FIG (1 x Subordinated 1x Green 4-tranche)
  • 1 x € SSA

Contact Stuart Aylward with questions or comments on Bloomberg or via stuart@creditflowresearch.com

Key € IG Supply Stats for Yesterday

• Corporate
  • Total IG: €6.65bn
  • Avg. tranche size €831m
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -21.43
  • Avg. cover 2.64 X
• FIG
  • Total IG: €3.5bn
  • Avg. tranche size €1.167bn
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing (covered) €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing -28.33 (unsecured) €3.5bn
  • Avg. cover 3.53 X
• SSA
  • Total IG: €0
  • Avg. tranche size €0
  • Avg. IPT to Pricing NA
  • Avg. cover NA

Geo-Political News

• Iran Supreme Leader Green Lights Peace Negotiations Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed that his administration received expanded authority from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to enter direct diplomatic negotiations. The statement coincides with comments from President Trump suggesting an agreement remains achievable, alongside Vice President JD Vance noting constructive preliminary exchanges. Global energy markets reacted immediately, with Brent crude prices falling sharply yesterday as the prospect of a negotiated settlement reduced fear of near-term military action by Washington following today's midterms. Iranian officials emphasized their preference for resolving frictions via structured dialogue, provided sovereign guarantees are respected. This is a pragmatic shift by Tehran to mitigate economic pressure while offering the US administration an avenue to de-escalate regional tensions. The timeline for formal diplomatic summits remains unclear.
• UK & EU Reach Draft Accord Eliminating ‘Red Tape’ The UK & EU have drafted a comprehensive agreement designed to eliminate physical inspection protocols & regulatory barriers on food & agricultural exports into the EU. Negotiators finalized the 200-page framework to streamline sanitary & phytosanitary standards, delivering meaningful operational relief for cross-border logistics. The timing of the draft accord provides positive momentum ahead of the high-level bilateral summit scheduled for November 20th. EU member states will review the proposed text this week to finalize ratification details. Trade associations across both jurisdictions welcomed the reduced administrative red tape, noting it will lower compliance costs for exporters & stabilize fresh produce supply routes. The compromise highlights a pragmatic willingness by both London & Brussels to reset commercial relations through targeted sector agreements.
• Anthropic Deliver Stunning Q3 Revenue Numbers, Coupled with Massive Capex Ahead of its IPO, AI developer Anthropic delivered Q3 numbers which saw revenue of $17bn, representing a 12x increase compared to the previous year. The company's Capex commitments, however, are scheduled to reach $895bn for the year ahead to expand data centre capacity & advanced hardware procurement. Financial disclosures indicated an accounting loss driven by mark-to-market valuations on convertible debt notes, which will convert into equity upon listing. The scale of planned infrastructure spending underscores the immense capital requirements needed to maintain competitiveness in frontier model development. Institutional investors are monitoring the upcoming public offering closely, as the balance sheet figures illustrate both unprecedented topline hypergrowth & massive long-term operational expense obligations.
• US Midterm Elections Begin Today Voting opens today across the US for the 2026 midterm elections, with control of all 435 House seats & 35 Senate positions at stake. While Trump is not personally on the ballot, political analysts & financial markets view the congressional races as a direct public assessment of his presidential agenda & domestic policy execution. The outcome will establish whether the executive branch retains legislative support or faces a divided Congress capable of blocking fiscal proposals, trade initiatives, & regulatory reforms. Polling stations nationwide report heavy voter turnout following weeks of intense campaigning centred on inflation, tax policy, & foreign engagements.
• United Arab Emirates to Host Ukraine Russia Peace Summit Official representatives from Ukraine & Russia will convene in Abu Dhabi on the 10^th & 11^th of this month for direct peace negotiations mediated by diplomats from the UAE. The summit aims to establish a structured diplomatic channel to negotiate ceasefire parameters, territorial security protocols, & energy infrastructure protections ahead of the winter season. Foreign ministry officials confirmed that international observers will oversee the preliminary sessions to ensure adherence to agreed security frameworks. The selection of the UAE reflects its established neutral posture & ongoing diplomatic efforts in facilitating prisoner exchanges & humanitarian corridors.
• Severe Maritime Storm Forces Infrastructure Disruptions Across North Sea Heavy winter gale systems across the North Sea forced energy operators to temporarily halt offshore wind generation & restrict crude vessel transits around vital maritime corridors. Wind speeds exceeding severe threshold limits prompted safety protocols across Scottish & Scandinavian offshore platforms, reducing regional power generation outputs & driving spot electricity prices higher. European grid managers deployed backup natural gas reserves to offset the sudden drop in renewable supply & maintain power network equilibrium.

Markets

• US Equity bourses were mixed yesterday as profit-taking in mega-cap tech shares pulled broader indices lower despite defensive strength. Tech sector liquidations weighted heavily on sentiment, while traditional cyclical shares found modest support. The Dow gained +0.41% to close at 51,983, while the S&P shed -0.51% to finish at 7,541. The Nasdaq experienced the sharpest decline, dropping -1.07% to end at 25,164. Portfolio managers rebalanced exposure ahead of congressional midterm election results, rotating out of high-valuation software equities into value-oriented market segments.
• Asian Equity bourses are mixed but mostly weaker today. The Nikkei trades down -0.33% at 63,082 as semiconductor weakness drags on sentiment. Conversely, the Hang Seng is up +0.52% to stand at 23,515, supported by real estate & consumer discretionary advances. The Kospi is trading down sharply, off -3.58% to 5,649 following heavy tech selling & foreign capital outflows. Regional price action reflects localized earnings reactions & portfolio rebalancing across key North Asian manufacturing & hardware sectors.
• European & UK Equity futures indicate a mixed cash market opening across major trading hubs. FTSE futures point to a subdued start, trading down -0.28% to 8,225. DAX futures face broader selling pressure, declining -0.78% to 19,050 following weakness across regional industrial & automotive manufacturing shares. Bucking the trend, CAC 40 futures show notable strength, rising +0.98% to 7,420 ahead of the ringing bell. Price action across index derivatives reflects sector-specific earnings adjustments & cross-market repositioning ahead of European trading.
• UK & Eurozone Bond Markets Eurozone sovereign bond yields edged lower yesterday with the 10yr Bund trading at 3.291%, dropping 3bps from the prior session & easing from 3.365% a week ago. The 10yr OAT yield stands at 4.897%, down 7bps from yesterday's level & slightly lower than 4.901% recorded last week. Sovereign yield curves across continental debt markets reflect modest capital inflows into core sovereign paper. In the UK, the 10yr Gilt yields 5.19%, marking a notable 10.4 basis point decline from yesterday's 5.294% level & easing from 5.343% compared to a week ago. The yield decline across British government paper comes as traders adjust duration exposure amid stabilizing fiscal sentiment & broader global fixed-income rebalancing.
• Currency Snapshot:
  • Sterling trades higher at 1.341 against the US dollar, advancing +0.05% from the prior session level of 1.341 & building on strengthening momentum compared to a week ago when cable traded at 1.333. Against the single currency, the pound holds firm with €/£ hovering at 0.834, virtually unchanged from yesterday's 0.834 level & showing modest strengthening compared to last week's 0.837 reading.
  • Euro displays minor gains against the greenback, trading at 1.119 for a +0.05% increase over yesterday's 1.119 level & firming compared to last week's 1.115 benchmark. Against the Swiss currency, €/Chf trades lower at 0.916, easing -0.05% from 0.916 yesterday & extending a weakening trend from 0.924 recorded a week ago.
  • Swiss Franc trades unchanged against the US dollar with $/Chf standing at 0.818, holding steady against yesterday's 0.819 level & demonstrating notable strengthening compared to 0.828 last week. Currency market flows remain tightly anchored to shifting interest rate differentials & cross-border portfolio adjustments across major European financial centres.

Economic Data (Western European Today)

Govt Bond Auctions (Western European Today)

Holidays

• There are no public or national holidays scheduled across the UK, & the Eurozone for the remainder of this week. The next holidays scheduled are as follows.
  • UK - Next: Christmas Day (25 December) & Boxing Day (26 December).
  • USA - Next: 11th November (Veterans Day) & 26th November (Thanksgiving)

Pending Deals & Mandates

Euros (€)

• 28th October: APA Infrastructure Limited (rated Baa2 / BBB by Moody’s & S&P), guaranteed by APA Group Limited, mandated BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, HSBC & J.P. Morgan as Joint Lead Managers to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings & calls commencing Monday, 2nd November. A Benchmark 10yr € RegS senior unsecured transaction may follow, subject to market conditions.
• 2nd November: Meta Platforms, Inc. (rated Aa3 / AA- by Moody’s & S&P), has asked Citigroup & Morgan Stanley to organize a series of fixed income investor calls.  An electronic presentation has been made available. Morgan Stanley is coordinating logistics. A US$, SEC-registered, benchmark senior unsecured issuance of 5yr, 7yr, 10yr, 20yr, 30yr fixed-rate notes may follow, subject to market conditions. A separate, SEC Registered, € benchmark senior unsecured issuance of Long 4yr, Long 6yr, Long 8yr, 12yr, 18yr, Long 38yr fixed-rate notes may also follow, subject to market conditions.

• 19th October: Sumitomo Life Insurance Company (exp. Issue ratings of A- / A- by S&P & Fitch) mandated JP Morgan, BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs, SMBC Nikko & BNP Paribas to arrange a series of fixed income investor conference calls commencing Monday the 19th October. JP Morgan will be coordinating logistics. A potential € benchmark, Reg S, Fixed to fixed, step-up 30NC10 callable subordinated bond offering will follow, subject to market conditions.
• 30th October: Equinix Inc. (rated Baa1 / BBB+ / BBB+ by Moody’s, S&P & Fitch) mandated BNP Paribas, BofA, ING, JP Morgan, Santander & Standard Chartered to arrange a series of fixed income investor conference calls commencing Monday the 2nd November. JP Morgan will be coordinating logistics. A potential € benchmark, SEC-registered, Green multi-tranche with 2yr (Fix or FRN), long 6yr, 9yr & 12yr bond offering will follow, subject to market conditions.

• 2nd November: The German State of North Rheine-Westphalia (Land NRW) (rated Aa1 / AA / AAA / AAA by Moody's, S&P, Fitch & Scope), mandated Deutsche Bank, Helaba, JP Morgan, RBCCM & Societe Generale to lead manage its upcoming new 3yr (9th November 2029) RegS bearer, €1bn (wng) fixed rate transaction. The deal will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions.

Recent Supply Data

Key Market Data